'No' team November date is a con

You must have heard the proponents of the ‘No’ campaigns, led by Higher Education Minister William Ruto, say that a ‘No’ vote on August 4 will lead to consensus on contentious issues for a fresh referendum in November, where everyone will be on the same side.

I am sure Ruto and his allies know pretty well this assertion is not only impractical, but impossible. They are being conservative with the truth to win over votes and look good. Their intentions are to appear like people who want a united Kenya, but their real reasons for wanting to derail the review process is to protect their selfish, personal interests.

Kenyans should know that there is not going to be a referendum in November, whichever way the vote goes next month. If we want a better constitution, we must vote ‘Yes’ in August or be prepared to wait much longer (probably forever) for another chance.

First, the Constitution of Kenya Review Act set a fixed ‘calendar of activities’ with regard to every step that would be taken in the reform journey. A ‘No’ vote would amount to a ‘Yes’ vote for the current Constitution. Fresh attempts to find a new constitution would require that we start afresh, probably from the point of collecting views from the public. This is not achievable within three months.

Egocentric politicians

Secondly, if the Proposed Constitution is rejected, the political interpretation would be a defeat of the politicians in the ‘Yes’ camp. We all know how egocentric our politicians are, and it would be impossible to bring the winners and losers together to reach a compromise for a referendum so quickly.

But if this were to happen, it is unlikely that we would go to the next referendum united. After the rejection of the Wako draft in 2005, it took the bloody aftermath of the 2007 elections, and the Serena Talks, to finally get back to the constitution-making journey. Such opportunities may not present themselves again.

Third, the contentious issues in question are matters that it would be impossible to reach a consensus on. For instance, should we delete the provisions on the Kadhis’ courts, Muslims and their allies will oppose the new draft. We’ll also be unable to reach common ground on abortion and the land issue.

Fourth, the Budget that was read recently does not foresee and, therefore, does not make provisions for the funds we would need for another referendum.

Fifth, if we decide to write a new draft, many interested groups will demand to be included in the process, and getting their harmonised views cannot be achieved in three months.

Divided nation

Finally, why the fuss about the referendum dividing Kenyans? The result of any referendum will always be a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ verdict, with the majority carrying the day. A referendum demands a divided nation! Otherwise, if it were possible to have everyone on the same side, what would be the need for a referendum in the first place?

A referendum recognises that people have divergent views. It is an opportunity to let the minority have their say, as the majority have their way. That is the essence of democracy. So, the referendum must proceed as scheduled and should ‘No’ carry the day, let us not delude ourselves we’ll have another shot to get a new law in November.

{James Tugee, Moi University}