Sunday, July 25, 2010

Kibaki well aware that his future is now

Before 1991, Emilio Stanley Mwai Kibaki had been a company man. And the company of his choice was Kanu.

Mr Kibaki – now President Kibaki – was never a fire-breathing revolutionary. His temperament and mien are moderate and gentlemanly. The benign man from Othaya was not born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

But he became a patrician who oozes the manners of an aristocrat. In a paradox, Mr Kibaki has become a revolutionary reformer in the last stanza of his storeyed life. He has provided a no-holds-barred leadership of the draft constitution, a document that will break the back of the predatory Kenyan state.

How, and why, did Mr Kibaki become a revolutionary?

In Twelfth Night, William Shakespeare wrote that “some men are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them”. All three aphorisms aptly describe Mr Kibaki. He was born great simply because of his superior intellectual prowess.

Gifted mind

Without his gifted mind, Mr Kibaki would have probably remained a miserable peasant. No one can deny that Mr Kibaki has earned greatness by his own merit. Remember his remarkably successful run as minister for Finance from 1969 to 1982.

But his uncanny luck has always put him in the right place at the right time. There is no doubt that Mr Kibaki has benefited from the sweat of the brow of others. But, until now, Mr Kibaki’s greatness has been status quo. It was not revolutionary.

That is why in 1969 Time magazine, the influential weekly, identified him as one of the top 100 people in the world most likely to lead. He spent most of his political life in Kanu’s vineyards hoping that Daniel arap Moi, the long serving autocrat, would retire.

It was not to be.

Political world

That Mr Moi stubbornly clung to power radicalised the patient Mr Kibaki who shocked the political world in 1991 by breaking ranks with Kanu to form the Democratic Party. Mr Kibaki had served notice that he had waited long enough to be president.

Until the draft constitution Mr Kibaki had squandered every “revolutionary moment” handed to him. He has had three distinct “revolutionary moments” to lead a reformist renaissance. The first was in 1991 when he left Kanu and formed DP.

Just before his defection, Mr Kibaki had incredulously declared that defeating Kanu was akin to “cutting a mugumo [fig] tree with a razor blade”.

Rather than join forces with the more radical Ford, Mr Kibaki formed DP, a conservative, pro-business regional party with a stronghold in Central and Eastern provinces.

Personal egos

This fragmented the opposition even before Ford fell apart over ethnic chauvinism and personal egos. This was strike one against Mr Kibaki.

Strike two against Mr Kibaki came in 2002 when a motley collection of oppositionists – most of them Kanu refugees – formed Narc to oust Kanu from power. Mr Kibaki had been handed the perfect “revolutionary moment” on a silver platter.

But health problems, a power struggle with Raila Odinga, and an insidious cabal known as the Mt Kenya Mafia sapped Narc’s revolutionary potential and killed the dream of reform.


Mr Kibaki then ran a highly tribalised government that was mired in historic scandals like Anglo Leasing. He disregarded constitutional reform and presided over a disputed election in 2007.

Under his watch, Kenya almost went to the dogs in 2008. But then he had an epiphany and struck a true partnership with Mr Odinga.

Avoid strike

Fortuitously, the draft constitution – Mr Kibaki’s third “revolutionary moment” – has given him the perfect opportunity to avoid strike three, and write himself into history.

At the twilight of his life, he won’t get any more bites at the apple. He must make a stand here and now – for himself, for Kenya, and for history.

Mr Kibaki is a keen observer of history and fully appreciates the significance of the moment. He knows that the draft constitution is about his legacy. It’s not lost on him that he can cleanse his past mistakes by getting it right this time.

He knows that the future for him is now. He has rediscovered the eloquence and the clarity of his younger days to lead the ‘Yes’ campaign.

Those who thought that the ‘Yes’ camp would be stuck with Mr Odinga recuperating must think again. Not since 2002 has Mr Kibaki been so amped.

He has accepted the challenge and is leading from the front. From the look of things, you’d think that he is running to succeed himself in 2012.

Indelible stamp

In a sense he is because the draft constitution will bear his indelible stamp if it passes. It will be the crowning achievement of his long career.

People rarely become revolutionaries in their old age. But Mr Kibaki has reversed that truism. He has saved the best for the last. My crystal tells me that Kenyans will grant his wish.

There is a final benefit to Mr Kibaki’s leadership on the draft constitution. It refocuses attention on the draft constitution and removes it from the vortex of succession politics.

It is not just Mr Odinga’s project alone. It is now truly a Kibaki-Odinga, ODM-PNU project.

Makau Mutua is Dean and Suny Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.

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