Sunday, July 11, 2010

How referendum vote will change Kenya

With the Kibaki succession in focus, the country will take a new political turn after the August 4 referendum on the proposed Constitution, whichever way the vote goes.

That explains why the proposed law is a do-or-die for Prime Minister Raila Odinga, his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Higher Education Minister William Ruto.

Whereas the four politicians are all fighting for political mileage to enhance their chances in the 2012 Presidential elections through the proposed constitution, President Kibaki is fighting tooth and nail to leave a new constitution in his legacy.

But all depends on the outcome of the hotly contested referendum pitting the Church and a comparatively smaller group of politicians on the ‘No’ side against a large section of the coalition partnership on the ‘Yes’ side.

The referendum will influence succession politics with President Kibaki’s legacy clearly at stake after his embarrassing loss in 2005 when the proposed constitution then was overwhelmingly rejected at the referendum.

A ‘Yes’ win would help Raila push his political and reform agenda through the strengthening of institutions such as the Judiciary and therefore enhancing his political mileage come 2012.

But a negative vote will put Raila, Uhuru and Kalonzo in a very awkward situation because they may be forced to eat humble pie and strive to go into the 2012 poll promising a new constitution to Kenya.

A ‘No’ win would boost Ruto’s political rating not just among his Rift Valley bedrock support, but among clerics who have taken to the frontline in opposing the proposed set of laws. He would then have an upper hand in bargaining a new deal in the partnership that has been dubbed the Kalenjin, Kikuyu and Kamba (KKK) Alliance.

On the other hand, if No carries the day, Kalonzo would bargain from a point of disadvantage in his alliance with Uhuru and Ruto.

From the ongoing campaigns, it is emerging that the referendum has the potential of polarising the country along ethnic lines and could play a key role in building the 2012 election coalitions.

Winning formula

But Government Whip Johnstone Muthama, a strong Kalonzo ally, says this is not the time to position people for the presidency because "the destiny of the country depends on the new constitution."

"The only person who knows about tomorrow is God. The winning formula for Kalonzo will not come from the Eastern vote alone just like Raila’s can’t be from the Nyanza vote," said Muthama.

Keiyo South MP Jackson Kiptanui says the disagreement between the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ camps is on whether to amend clauses before referendum or not. "The referendum is not a political contest between Ruto and Raila or Kibaki and that is why Ruto has leaders from diverse parties campaigning against the draft for the interest of Kenyans," said Kiptanui.

It is not a secret, however, that Raila, Uhuru and Kalonzo are all banking on the passage of the proposed law to enhance their chances for different political reasons.

Political analysts say what’s not in doubt is that President Kibaki is banking on passage of the proposed constitution to add to the Free Primary Education programme as his legacy.

Ruto starts ahead of the queue for the presidency, even among his so-called KKK alliance, in the event the Proposed Constitution is rejected.

Similarly, argues political scientist Dr Ludeki Chweya, Ruto should consider himself a non-starter should the Greens carry the day.

"Ideally, one lacks political ground to seek the highest office in the land on a document he campaigned against and does not believe in. Just how do you execute its principles and legislation?" poses the former University of Nairobi don, now a PS in the VP’s Office and Ministry of Home Affairs. But opinion is divided on the political capital those angling to succeed Kibaki are likely to reap from the outcome of the vote.

Former Cabinet minister Joseph Kamotho says it is unfortunate that focus on referendum campaigns seems to have shifted to 2012 succession battle. "I doubt any politician will gain mileage. It is too early," he says.

Lawyer and political analyst Paul Mwangi says while the President can take the credit if a new constitution is achieved during his rule, none of the other politicians can claim ownership because "the process is owned by the people."

But Mwangi concedes Ruto stands to gain from his lead role in the ‘No’ camp by raising his political profile.

Test waters

Supposing the Proposed Constitution is rejected? Kenyans will have to look for new ways of healing their divisions and shaping their destiny.

Political Analyst Dr Adams Oloo agrees that Ruto is out to test his "political mettle" considering that Raila, Kalonzo and Uhuru have all run presidential campaigns.

"Had the PM said ‘No’ Ruto would have probably said ‘Yes’. Ruto is the only one who has never run a presidential campaign. This referendum provides him with an opportunity to test the waters; whether he can command a following among the Rift Valley people by delivering a ‘No’ vote," said Oloo.

He, however, believes that Raila stands a better chance of bagging accolades should the Proposed Constitution be approved.

"The PM has put a lot of premium on the need for a new constitution. ODM initially wanted a parliamentary system and by embracing the presidential system, Raila is seen to have sacrificed in an act that could pay dividends," he says.

Mwangi and Oloo, however, concur that the future of the KKK alliance is much more complicated.

Though Mwangi dismisses the KKK alliance as "overrated", he believes Kalonzo could be its best bet but even then holding the alliance together could be a tall order.

The lawyer explains that only the VP’s position would be available in 2012 either under the current constitution or if the Proposed Constitution is enacted since the PM’s position lapses with the National Accord.

"Who between Uhuru and Ruto would get the VP’s position? That would kill the KKK alliance," says Mwangi. He adds that the alliance is nonetheless dead in the water, citing the ‘impossible’ task of selling Uhuru to the Rift Valley and Ruto to Central after the 2007 post-election violence.

He suggests that unlike the KKK alliance that has to contend with competition, Raila is almost guaranteed the ODM ticket.

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