Mutahi Ngunyi’s “Tyranny of Numbers” article - now tyrannizing the unwary in cyberspace - says that the Jubilee Alliance of Uhuru Kenyatta will win the 2013 presidential election in the first round with a substantial majority over the Cord Coalition of Raila Odinga.
In contrast to this, numerous opinion polls have consistently placed the CORD Coalition ahead of Jubilee with the most recent poll saying that the election is now a virtual tie.
The polls say, in effect, that no party can win this election in the first round. Who is right? The polls, without question. Though Mutahi’s argument has gained traction in certain circles, it is wrong-headed and the numbers on which it rests have been tortured to yield results they cannot sustain.
This article explains the basic errors and spurious conclusions on which the “Tyranny of Numbers” stands. Put simply, the analysis is so flawed Mutahi should refund the money of the client that paid for it.
The “Tyranny of Numbers” makes a plausible but trivial claim, that is, that Kenya’s voting is historically influenced by ethnicity. This claim is plausible because identity is central to our national life- as it is in Belgium, Lebanon and any other multicultural country you may care to name.
It is trivial because no one has ever won an election in Kenya through exclusive ethnic votes without mobilizing at least three ethnic groups and so undercutting the argument that people vote ethnicity.
On the basis of that claim, Ngunyi then uses electoral demographics to build what, on examination, is a house of cards. The Jubilee Alliance, he says, begins with such a large numerical advantage the effort needed to secure an electoral victory is infinitesimally small.
Barring a major catastrophe- including an assassination- Jubilee should win the presidential election in the first round. This inevitable victory comes from the Jubilee Coalition’s “bankable” ethnic vote of 6.2 Million (or 43.2% of the total vote).
This number is basically a totting up of the registered GEMA and the Kalenjin voters. On that same ethnic logic, Mutahi reckons that CORD Coalition starts off with 19.2% of the vote or 2.74 million votes.
For CORD to win, he says, they need to double their support. Or as he puts it, for CORD to catch up with Jubilee, it must multiply each of its Kamba and Luo vote by 2.3. Virtually impossible is the implication. Well? This is numerology not numeracy. Here is why.
The “Tyranny of Numbers” is built on five easily exposed errors and fallacies.
First, to say that Kenyans vote along ethnic lines does not lead to the conclusion that they vote for only their tribesman. Kenyans may mobilize along ethnic lines, a fact probably driven by weak political parties, but ethnic votes can and have historically split or moved tactically to politicians from other ethnic groups. In fact the only vote that has historically not moved is the Kikuyu vote. Mutahi analysis assumes that what is true of the Kikuyu is true of all ethnic groups in Kenya.
Secondly, even though the ethnic numbers seem plausible on the face of it scientific surveys, such as opinion polls, have consistently shown that Kenyans won’t always vote the way Mutahi predicts. And that in fact, the CORD Coalition has a much larger base – nearly double- the Kamba/Luo ethnic core Mutahi’s calls their “bankable vote.” Contrary to everything Mutahi says, the opinion polls suggest, as they did in 2007, a rather close election that will most probably be decided in a run-off. In fact the polls suggest that the so-called Jubilee """ head-start does not exist. By nomination day, CORD had already made up ground on Jubilee by increasing its core support way beyond its ethnic base of Luo and Kamba whereas the Jubilee leaders had not. In effect, CORD has no catching up to do.
Thirdly, Mutahi misses the effect of incumbency on elections. In 1992 and 1997 and 2007, the leading candidates for president, Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki, ran as incumbents. So is Raila in 2013.
Fourthly, there are almost 3.5 million newly registered voters who nobody knows as yet how they will vote. It is not possible to project historical voting patterns on this group.
Finally, Ngunyi’s voter-turnout figures for the GEMA block are not plausible. The turnout blind spot leads him to grossly overstate the overall GEMA numbers.
Wachira Maina is a political consultant based in Nairobi. The full 7,500 word version of this article is available at www.the-star.co.ke.
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