Raila under siege as stern political test unfolds

By Otuma Ongalo

Despite putting on a brave face amid the storm rocking his party, Prime Minister Raila Odinga is a man under siege.

The rebellion initiated by Eldoret North MP William Ruto, which he initially grossly underestimated, seems to be gaining momentum and things are no longer at ease in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Ruto’s marshalling of more than 60 MPs at an Eldoret rally attended by President Kibaki and his apparent successful wooing of Raila’s former allies in the Rift Valley have jolted the PM into action to reclaim his clout. After returning from his Ivory Coast sojourn Raila toured North Eastern Province and other parts of the country in a renewed push to popularise his Orange party.

Burning passion

At this time last year, Raila was riding on the crest of a political wave.

But the wave of rebellion led by Ruto allies and the emerging alliances have tilted the political landscape, which seems to be changing fast and is likely to gain momentum as next year’s elections beckon.

The big question is: Will Raila weather the storm, reclaim his political clout, and fulfil his long-time dream of ascending to the ultimate seat of power?

At the moment, things seem to be elephant for the premier, but he can derive solace from the fact that it is still two years to the election and one day in politics is a long time.

His famed ability of drawing the political rabbit out of his hat and cranking his political engine to life when opponents are busy drafting his obituary will be called to test.

The hitherto firm political matrimony between Raila and his estranged deputy party leader seems irreconcilable.

While Ruto may not have a burning passion to succeed President Kibaki, he comes across as a man willing to pay any price to ensure Raila is humiliated at next year’s polls.

The much-touted UDM party that the Eldoret North MP has promised to lead his troops to deny Raila a big chunk of his support in the vast Rift Valley.

Body language

That Mr Henry Kosgey and Dr Sally Kosgei — two of Raila’s key allies in the Rift Valley— are warming up to Ruto is another nightmare for Raila.

From their body language, actions, and innuendoes, Kosgey and Kosgei are all but in Ruto’s camp. It is just a matter of when — not if — they will make their loyalty known although Kosgei is as good as having revealed it when she pledged her loyalty to her voters and said she is not in the business of committing political suicide.

Although President Kibaki will not seek re-election next year, he is a key player in determining his successor.

On top of enjoying the benefit of incumbency he has wide following in the Mt Kenya region. The camaraderie that Kibaki and Raila sometimes exhibit may not go all the way to the ballot box as the latest spat over key appointments has shown.

Indeed, a discerning eye will detect the Prime Minister and the President have not been best of friends in recent past. Kibaki has made key decisions — including the reappointment of NSIS boss and nomination of Chief Justice and Attorney General — without involving him and he seems to be emboldened by Raila’s woes.

It is worth noting that Kibaki recently agreed to be hosted by Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta — who is perceived to be Kibaki’s favourite heir — at the Eldoret rally, which was clearly meant to be a show of might against Raila.

Although the forum was dubbed a reconciliation meeting between the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities, succession politics carried the day as Ruto revelled in Kibaki’s company and had his allies put a good word for him. What about Kibaki shaking his hand and presenting him to the crowd and endorsing what he had said?

As this happened, Raila was in another eye of the storm following his controversial appointment by the African Union to spearhead peace talks in Ivory Coast. The appointment itself caused jitters among the Kibaki inner circle who saw it as giving Raila political mileage.

And it is not just in the Rift Valley that Raila is fast losing allies. At the Coast, his relationship with Tourism Minister Najib Balala seems to have hit rock bottom, while his perceived blue-eyed boy, Hassan Joho, has been linked to drug trafficking.

Political survival

In Ukambani, his allies are fighting for political survival too. Water Minister Charity Ngilu is facing KACC probe over water projects, while Harun Mwau had to step down as assistant minister after being linked to drug trafficking.

In Western, only Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi stands out as his lone soldier and that is in a tiny section of the province whose political loyalty is highly divided.

While Raila has criticised tribal alliances as a key factor in determining the next leadership, the truth is he would still have to seek it — be it in another name.

The quest for generational change is another challenge facing Raila although it is yet to be received with much national enthusiasm.

In his party, the former famed Pentagon has been consigned to the backburner as key decision-making drifted to a cabal of trusted allies.

Inevitably, Raila has to build new bridges or even mend fences with erstwhile allies, but he has been in a too combative mood for such possibilities.

The general message to those threatening to sever links with him is: "I will survive." Whether this will hold, only time will tell.

—oongalo@standardmedia.co.ke