Kibaki’s rally in Eldoret was smart politics

 

By MAKAU MUTUAPosted Saturday, January 29 2011 at 17:16

In Summary

• No one can tell for sure -- in Orange Democratic Movement or PNU -- exactly why Kibaki went to Kalenjin country

No one in Kenya’s politics can wear a poker face better than President Mwai Kibaki. Mr Kibaki is either the smartest politician, or the most cunning. Either way, he is a master of his craft. This is why.

No one can tell for sure – in ODM and PNU alike – exactly why Mr Kibaki went to Kalenjin country last week. Some people think they know but, believe me, they don’t.

I have three hypotheses why Mr Kibaki went to 64 Stadium in Eldoret and publicly “embraced” Eldoret North MP William Ruto, a man wanted by ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo for alleged crimes against humanity. My view is that President Kibaki killed three birds with one stone.

My first hypothesis is that Mr Kibaki was acting like the “father” of the nation. Sometimes it’s the right decision to spare the rod when children quarrel in a family. This is especially true when one of the children – the “bully” and “emotional extortionist” – threatens Armageddon if “daddy” doesn’t grant his wish.

I don’t know what the spy agencies have been telling “papa” but he must have known that a dangerous “siege” mentality is taking root among the Kalenjin. It doesn’t matter whether such a mentality is legitimate or justified. It only matters that it’s real. It’s a priority of the President to keep the peace. Hence the so-called “peace rally”.

But the rally was not about peace, but the appearance of peace. Rather than use presidential “sticks,” Mr Kibaki offered presidential “carrots” to the Kalenjin. This was a political “pacifier” that only “papa” could give his “children”.

Among the Kalenjin, none of Mr Kibaki’s children are more petulant than Mr Ruto. “Pacify” him and you appease the whole community. That’s what Mr Ruto and the Kalenjin elite would have “baba” believe.

Is it true? I hope not but, quite honestly, I don’t know. Mr Kibaki seemed to be saying to the Kalenjin he will protect “their sons” – Mr Ruto, Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, and KASS FM’s Joshua arap Sang – from Mr Moreno-Ocampo’s guillotine.

My second hypothesis is that Mr Kibaki went to Eldoret to give the impression that he was endorsing the KKK alliance. However, no one knows whether he actually endorsed the KKK or not.

But he appeared to bring together the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin – the two communities that viciously fought in 2008.

The presence and utterances of Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta – one of the Ocampo Six – give this hypothesis credence. Only VP Kalonzo Musyoka – one of the KKK trio – was absent. He was off to foreign African capitals to save his KKK brethren from Mr Moreno-Ocampo.

Fool’s gold

But does the KKK know that Mr Kibaki’s presence could have been fool’s gold? Why risk his legacy for the Ocampo Six? Mr Kibaki said at 64 Stadium that he would “do all that Mr Ruto” had talked about.

To me that means nothing. It’s a placebo, an empty palliative thrown to the crowd and to Mr Ruto and the KKK. It was classic Kibaki – he was as opaque as he could be while giving the impression of a substantive promise.

That’s why PM Raila Odinga should not panic and react impulsively to the “peace” rally. In my view, President Kibaki’s “embrace” of Mr Ruto was a false bait meant to buy tranquillity. Its flip side may have been to “tame” Mr Odinga who, in Mr Kibaki’s eyes, may be growing “too big for his britches”.

My third and final hypothesis is that President Kibaki was preparing the ground for the handing over of the Ocampo Six – and Mr Ruto in particular – to The Hague if indictments come down. It’s not lost on anyone – least of all the spy agencies – that hauling the Ocampo Six, especially Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta, to The Hague could pose a major security threat.

But by appearing to “shower love” on Mr Ruto and the Ocampo Six could take the sting out of their arrest and “rendition” to The Hague. That’s why Mr Kibaki was “cozily” sandwiched between Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta at the rally. He could “legitimately” cite that image as evidence of his “unequivocal support” for Mr Ruto. This would “absolve him from blame” when he obeys the law and hands over Mr Ruto to the ICC.

Don’t forget that the “peace” rally came only a few months before the Pre-Trial Chamber of the ICC is set to rule on indictments. While VP Musyoka is lobbying the AU and the UN to defer the cases of the Ocampo Six, Mr Kibaki may simultaneously be preparing for the worst case scenario – indictments.

Indictments

President Kibaki appears to be covering all bases. Ironically, Mr Kibaki could be Mr Moreno-Ocampo’s “secret ally” if this is true. I am sure Mr Moreno-Ocampo would endorse Mr Kibaki’s “peace” rally if he knew the latter’s machinations.

Whether Mr Kibaki was lulling Mr Ruto to sleep before handing him over for “slaughter” at The Hague remains to be seen.

But I wouldn’t bet against it. President Kibaki may be a master illusionist. His “see-nothing, say-nothing, be-opaque” approach to politics has served him well. He seems to be recalling those gifts at the twilight of his political career.

What matters most to him now is his legacy. He is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. He knows he must deliver justice for the victims of post-election violence or tarnish his legacy forever. But he can only do so if he surrenders the Ocampo Six to the ICC. That’s why the “peace” rally was smart politics.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.