Friday, September 6, 2013

Mars Group Kenya update: Audit Report on 2013 Kenyan Presidential Election Results

Mars Group Kenya Audit Report on 2013 Kenyan Presidential Election Results. 943,520 votes in the 2013 Kenyan Presidential Elections of 2013 are not supported by Form 34 sheets signed by Presiding Officers - Read Audit Report by Mars Group Kenya here:http://blog.marsgroupkenya.org/2013/09/03/mars-group-kenya-report-audit-report-on-2013-kenyan-presidential-election-results/www.marsgroupkenya.org Watching out for you.

Mars Group Kenya Audit Report on 2013 Kenyan Presidential Election Results
Audit Methodology
All Form 34 documents audited are in the public domain and were released by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on its official website in April 2013. The IEBC told the Supreme Court that ALL the Form 34’s from all polling streams were available on its website. An Audit of the Form 34’s on the IEBC website reveals that 2,585forms are missing.
The results as published in the available Form 34’s were recorded in the Audit as follows;
  1. Total number of registered voters for the polling station.
  2. Number of spoilt ballot papers.
  3. Total number of votes cast.
  4. Number of rejected votes.
  5. Number of disputed votes.
  6. Number of rejection objected to votes.
  7. Total number of valid votes cast.
  8. The results for valid votes cast in favour of each candidate.
The audit captures whether the Presiding Officer, Deputy Presiding Officer and the Political Parties Agents duly signed the Form 34 and also captures any alterations. Once the data was captured, we then independently tallied the figures to see if they added up at the stream level. The totals were then aggregated upwards to ward, constituency, county and finally national level.

Kenya Presidential Election 2013 National Audit Overview

The Following was audited:
Constituencies291
Counties48
Wards1,454
Polling Stations24,622
Polling Streams32,095
Findings:
  1. 2,585 out of 32,095 polling streams were missing Form 34’s on the Official IEBC website and therefore the results and votes of the missing streams were not included in the Audit.
    COUNTYMISSING FORM 34’S (STREAMS)
    Mombasa14
    Kwale1
    Kilifi79
    Tana River0
    Lamu2
    Taita Taveta1
    Garissa4
    Wajir2
    Mandera3
    Marsabit8
    Isiolo6
    Meru13
    Tharaka – Nithi12
    Embu6
    Kitui228
    Machakos135
    Makueni32
    Nyandarua17
    Nyeri199
    Kirinyaga20
    Murang'a18
    Kiambu172
    Turkana20
    West Pokot68
    Samburu0
    Trans Nzoia34
    Uasin Gishu23
    Elgeyo/Marakwet1
    Nandi8
    Baringo13
    Laikipia37
    Nakuru22
    Narok20
    Kajiado9
    Kericho14
    Bomet149
    Kakamega97
    Vihiga227
    Bungoma173
    Busia18
    Siaya182
    Kisumu68
    Homa Bay126
    Migori61
    Kisii150
    Nyamira18
    Nairobi74
    Diaspora1
    Total Missing Forms2,585
  2. The Audit identified discrepancies between the Presidential tally announced by the IEBC and the figures computed from the Form 34 sheets made public by the IEBC. We do note however, that whereas the missing stream Form 34s may reduce the overall discrepancy in county election result; the Form 34 discrepancies suggests a serious tallying problem that could alter the official final National Presidential vote tally per candidate that was announced by the IEBC.
    The Audit discrepancies noted hereunder relate to internal errors detected within the Form 34 documents that were examined (a total of 29,510 out of 32,095 Form 34s were examined).
  3. The Audit of the available form 34’s revealed that the Official results for the Presidential Election as announced by the IEBC cannot be correct unless the missing2,585 Form 34s contain the following VALID VOTES cast for each Candidate as follows:
    Summary of Votes per candidate
    CANDIDATEVOTES
    Mohamed Abduba Dida3,611
    Martha Wangari Karua4,238
    Peter Kenneth5,875
    Uhuru Kenyatta360,370
    James Legilisho Kiyiapi3,879
    Musalia Mudavadi96,293
    Paul Kibugi Muite1,949
    Raila Odinga467,305
    Total Votes943,520
    The distribution of missing forms by county and details of number of votes each candidate MUST HAVE from the missing 2,585 Form 34s for the IEBC announced results to be correct and valid are tabulated below:
Recommendations:
  1. To IEBC: The only way to confirm that the IEBC's tally is correct, and therefore valid is to allow independent scrutiny of the 2,585 missing Form 34s. It is in the public interest that IEBC account for the 943,520 votes ostensibly contained in the 2,585 Form 34s which have not been made public. We strongly recommend that for the sake of public confidence in the IEBC's conduct of the 2013 Presidential Election, the IEBC, in the public interest, should immediately make available for scrutiny the 2,585 stream Form 34 documents listed at this link: 2,585 missing Form 34s.
  2. To IEBC: The audit reveals widely disparate standards in the recording of results in Form 34 by presiding officers. The future contracting of presiding officers who served in the 2013 elections should be predicated on an assessment of the accuracy of their work in 2013. The audit has been able to capture presiding officers who should not in any future election work for IEBC, and those whose work is commendable.
  3. To Parliament: It has taken Mars Group over 4 months to scrutinise and analyse the Form 34s available to it; yet Presidential petitions must be lodged within 14 days of an election. There is need to revisit the Constitutional provisions prescribing the period for lodging and hearing of presidential petitions.
See links above for Audit details per county and drill down for constituencies, wards, polling stations and polling streams.

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