What would you say is the greatest challenge that President Uhuru Kenyatta faces, going forwards?
Well, if you are to base your answer on the historical record, then there can only be one answer: Uhuru’s great challenge will lie in managing his relationship with the acknowledged king-maker of the recent presidential election, the Deputy President, William Ruto.
Here are the historical facts:
Back in the dying days of the colonial era, the firebrand of the Legislative Council, one Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, stunned the debating chamber by announcing that there could be no question of independence without the release of Jomo Kenyatta (then held in detention by the colonial government, as he had been for many years). This set off a series of events which led to Jaramogi serving as Kenyatta’s first Vice President, when Kenya became an independent state in 1964.
But by 1966, Jaramogi had resigned in fury from Kenyatta's government and gone off to form his ill-fated Kenya People’s Union. And by 1970, Odinga was the one who was languishing in detention, following the banning of KPU in 1969.
This unenviable fate effectively set the pattern for all future Kenyan kingmakers.
The next President, Daniel arap Moi, also ascended to the presidency only through the active assistance of the Attorney General of the time, Charles Njonjo. Indeed Njonjo did more for Moi than Jaramogi ever did for Kenyatta – he reportedly was the sole barrier to Moi meeting an early death through an assassin’s bullet, given the sort of rough characters occupying the inner political circles of those days (usually referred to as the “Kiambu mafia”) who were determined that Moi should not succeed Kenyatta as President.
Moi came to power in 1978; by 1984, Njonjo had been subject to a political circus disguised as a “judicial inquiry” which led to his being denounced as a “traitor” who had tried to overthrow the government. Ever the magnanimous dictator, Moi then exercised his powers of clemency to “forgive” Njonjo.
Now even if all this seems like ancient history to you, who can forget how, in 2002, the former PM Raila Odinga led the campaign to see former President Kibaki installed in State House. This was just a decade ago. But within three years and with all kinds of promises having not been kept, this same Raila was at the head of the team which humiliated President Kibaki in the 2005 referendum, which Kibaki supported and Raila opposed. Thereafter, Raila was sacked from the Cabinet – only to reappear at the 2007 election as a formidable contender for the presidency.
And after a supremely violent, never-again, presidential election, the two had to share power for five long years.
That of course is where the crucial difference lies: whereas in the earlier decades it was possible to completely sideline a kingmaker once he had served his purpose, that is no longer an option.
This makes the 21st century kingmaker decidedly different from the likes of Jaramogi Odinga and Charles Njonjo, who had no choice but to passively accept “the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune” when they fall out with the man they helped to elevate to the presidency.
If Ruto should feel that he is being sidelined, he will not lack opportunities to make the President’s life extremely unpleasant.
But that is not all. A strong case can be made that it is precisely when a Kenyan President no longer has within his Cabinet, one or two men who absolutely do not fear him (as opposed to the sycophantic hirelings that most Cabinet members usually are); that is when things start to go wrong.
It is after Jaramogi Odinga was out of the way that the Kenyatta government evolved into a de facto single-party dictatorship. And Daniel arap Moi was an incredibly popular President during his first few years in office. But without the stabilising effects of having men like Njonjo, who were not in awe of him, within his Cabinet, he ended up as a despised and incompetent autocrat.
Likewise, I am inclined to believe that the 10 years of the Kibaki administration would have been even more productive if there had been no parting of ways between the President and Raila Odinga. Their supporters would have been less absorbed in political infighting, and would have focused more on serving Kenyans.
The historical record is thus very clear: if Uhuru is to be a successful President, he really needs to work very hard to ensure that he remains on good terms with his deputy.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment