Of Mudavadi, polygamous pacts and Third Force factor

By Mwenda Njoka

Finally Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi has done what he should have immediately Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto pulled a fast one on him: Take a walk and set up his own political base.

Rather than wasting valuable time grousing about how ‘dishonest’ Uhuru was, Mudavadi ought to have walked out with a stiff upper lip and like the proverbial wolf that after making several unsuccessful attempts to reach up and pluck some juicy fruits, it decided to walk away with a quip “why waste my time on these fruits, they are not even ripe nor are they juicy”.

For Mudavadi, such an exit would have been most appropriate and would have left him with his reputation significantly intact even after being snookered by Uhuru and Co. After all, only textbook and theoretical politics is about much else other than immediate and converging interests. The top three issues that define practical politics are; number one – interests, number two – interests and number three – interests. Period.

Practical politics is not about being nice and cuddly to newfound friends and throwing the hatchet in the deepest part of the sea. Practical politics is about smiling to newfound friends while burying the hatchet within an easily retrievable distance knowing all too well that today’s friend could easily be your most irretractable foe at the break of dawn tomorrow. As such political pacts – no matter how well intentioned, how iron-clad they are and have been witnessed by myriad lawyers or even family members – are only good so long as they serve the immediate interests of the dominant players.

On December 4 last year, we saw yesterdays bitterest foes becoming the day’s ‘best of friends’ and political partners to boot. What changed? Simple. Cold-hearted calculations showed a converge of interests thus bringing erstwhile foes together in newfound friendship to push their common political interests in the knowledge that if they don’t hang together, they surely shall be hung separately come March 4, to paraphrase the famous wise counsel from an American statesman.

As such, the moment Mudavadi realised that his political dalliance with Uhuru wasn’t working to his (Mudavadi’s) interests, that’s the moment he should have taken a walk and, à la (in the manner and style of) the wolf that declared the fruits “were neither ripe nor juicy” to his liking, the DPM would have owned the bragging rights. Mudavadi’s earlier efforts to try and have the Jubilee Coalition annulled just because theirs and his political interests had failed to converge wasn’t a very wise move.

No one could have captured the embarrassing situation the DPM had put himself in more aptly than the TNA secretary-general Onyango Oloo when he equated Mudavadi’s initial attempts to have Jubilee Coalition dissolved to that disgruntled wife in polygamous marriage seeking dissolution of the marriage (even of his co-wife) just because she (the disgruntled wife) has decided to quit the marriage.

Be that as it may, now that Mudavadi has finally made the decision he should have made immediately Uhuru & Co reneged on the agreement to have the UDF boss as the presidential candidate for Jubilee Coalition, the onus now will be on the Sabatia MP to prove that in deed he has what it takes to take on both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga and make a dent on their political armours.

Will Mudavadi be the famed Third Force that will shape the direction of the presidential race? For now the jury may be out. But suffice it to say that Mudavadi is more likely to eat into Raila Odinga’s political turf than Uhuru Kenyatta’s, unless the UDF Presidential aspirant pulls a magical rabbit from his political hat and names a running mate who will help him harvest votes from regions considered strong-holds of the Jubilee group.

But one thing may be assured; the formal entry of Mudavadi in the race has increased the possibility of the country going into a second ballot or presidential race run-off where the UDF leader may hold a trump card.

The writer is Managing Editor of The Standard On Sunday