Musalia’s latest headache

Deputy Prime Minister MusaliaMudavadi with his wife, Tessie, after being endorsed as UDF flagbearer.

By Mwenda Njoka

When Musalia Mudavadi got endorsement by his party and coalition partners last Friday to run for the presidency, it marked the healing of one headache, and ironically, the beginning of the political equivalent of a migraine.

The biggest headache that Mudavadi will have to deal with between now and January 18 — when all parties are expected to have provided presidential ticket. The fact that the Deputy Prime Minister decided to skate around the running mate issue during his endorsement last Friday is indicative of the complexity and vested interests in the matter.

What complicates things for the Amani Coalition presidential aspirant is the ‘small matter’ of coalition or alliance agreement. Even as Mudavadi’s party; United Democratic Forum (UDF), was welcoming other parties to Amani Coalition last week, it already had a pre-existing alliance agreement with Kanu which technically means the former ruling party has the first right of refusal to the running mate position under the alliance agreement.

According to insiders in Amani Coalition, the group’s presidential aspirant, Mudavadi, deliberately decided not to broach the subject of running mate because, as the source put it: “of the delicate nature of the matter and the fact that negotiations are on-going with multiple probable candidates for deputy president.”

Other sources intimated that Amani Coalition technical teams were weighing the pros and cons of various probable candidates even as negotiations went on below the radar.

Complicated options

For now though, several names have been bandied around of possible running mates for Mudavadi but no one in the party is willing to go on record on the subject maintaining that “the prerogative of choosing a running mate is on the presidential candidate” and as such commenting publicly on the issue would appear to undermine that prerogative.

But off record, the names being mentioned of probable candidates for the vacant position of Musalia Mudavadi’s running mates include: Kanu Chairman Gideon Moi, former minister Kipruto arap Kirwa, Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed, Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi, as well as presidential aspirants Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth.

However, it is imperative to note that some of the politicians being mentioned as possible running mate to Mudavadi have previously indicated that either they are in the race for the long-haul (in the case of presidential candidates Ms Karua and Mr Kenneth) or they have set their eyes on other political seats such as senators and governors. So, what are the strengths and weaknesses of the politicians being mentioned as probable running mate to the Amani Coalition presidential aspirant?

Mohamed Abdikadir

The Mandera Central MP has been close to Mudavadi since the formation of UDF. He has often appeared as the spokesman of the party and a reliably sidekick to Mudavadi. Although he is a first-term MP having been elected to Parliament on Safina ticket in 2007, Abdikadir has shown a knack for leadership and a tenacious capacity to deliver as exemplified during his tenure as chair of Parliamentary Committee on Justice and Legal Affairs.

He previously worked as a partner in the law firm of Ahmednassir, Abdikadir & Company Advocates where he specialised in corporate and Islamic finance law.

If Mudavadi were to have him as his running mate, he will count on him to attract Muslim voters on the assumption that no other political party has placed a Moslem in a position as high as that of a running.

However, with Abdikadir being a first-term MP and the fact he does not necessarily hail from a populous community, it would take ingenious political marketing to translate such an appointment into votes.

Gideon Moi and Kipruto Kirwa

This son of former President has indicated he will be seeking election as Senator for Baringo County. However, the fact that his party, Kanu was the first one to sign an alliance agreement with Mudavadi is indicative of deeper relationship between Mudavadi’s party and Gideon.

It is also not lost on observers that Mudavadi enjoys close relations with Gideon’s father. However, with Gideon himself having set camp in Baringo where he seems the front-runner in the race for Senator, he would most likely only take running mate offer if he was a sure Mudavadi’s candidature will win.

Having Gideon as a running mate would provide Mudavadi with the advantage that comes with the “Moi name” not to mention the immense financial and network resources at the disposal of this former First Family. Would that translate into votes for Mudavadi from the vast Rift Valley? Not necessarily because of many factors – most critical of them being that another son from the region William Ruto is a running mate in a coalition that appears ahead of Mudavadi’s group for now.

New Ford-Kenya boss Eugene Wamalwa, has indicated that Kipruto arap Kirwa, is his party’s preferred running mate for Mudavadi.

Although Kirwa was once a formidable politician in the Rift Valley, his absence from the local political scene since losing the Cherangany parliamentary seat has significantly reduced his influence in the region. Kirwa has indicated his intention to run for senator in Trans Nzoia County but being an ambitious politician, most likely he would jump at the possibility of being running mate if he views the ticket viable. But his greatest challenge would be delivering substantial number of votes from a region where he appears to have lost his old magic.

Kiraitu Murungi

The minister for Energy has been playing coy on the issue of committing on presidential elections. Although he has publicly stated that his party APK will not field a presidential candidate and (for now) appears to favour Uhuru Kenyatta, Kiraitu’s body language has shown that he is open to offers. Should Mudavadi’s candidature appear likely to lead him into State House, there is little doubt that Kiraitu would second thoughts before saying “Yes” to becoming Mudavadi’s running mate.

With Kiraitu as his running mate, this has the potential of complicating things for Uhuru Kenyatta in a region that could prove his soft underbelly.

Karua and Peter Kenneth

The two are presidential aspirants on different parties. In the case of Peter Kenneth, there were initial indications of warming up towards Mudavadi until the ghost secret agreement with Jubilee Coalition threw a spanner in the works. A Mudavadi-Kenneth ticket would offer an attractive option but would not necessarily guarantee votes in Central, a region that Uhuru appears to have conquered. On her part, Karua has consistently cut the image of a lone-ranger and it is unlikely that she would take the offer of a running mate. But if she were to take such an offer, this would add some zest to the ticket but the trick would still remain translating such zest into votes.

For now though, many of the probable candidates for the position of Mudavadi’s running mate will prefer holding their cards close to their chests until it becomes apparent that Mudavadi can win.Mudavadi may end up with a political minnow as his running mate; not because he wants one, but due to lack of better options.