Ahmednasir Abdullahi
In the past few months, Mr Musalia Mudavadi, the leader of UDF party, has assumed a very critical role in the forthcoming presidential election.
He is seen by a critical mass in the country as a viable alternative to the polarising candidature of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Raila Odinga. He represents the mild, cool, safe and the detribalisation of politics in Kenya.
By launching the Amani coalition as his vehicle for the presidency and with the support of the leaders like Eugene Wamalwa and Gideon Moi of Kanu, Mr Mudavadi has once again thrust himself to the front and is set to play the most critical role in the presidential election on March 4.
The kingmaker has entered the ring, and both Raila and Uhuru must bow to the king or face the consequence. Equally important, the launch of the Amani coalition is the biggest attempt by the Luhya community in western Kenya to assert themselves and rally behind one of their own sons.
The presidency will probably be won by either Raila or Uhuru, but it is Mr Mudavidi who will decide who wins between the two. This he won’t do by endorsing either of the two candidatures. This he will do by either running a credible or a lacklustre campaign.
The entry of Mr Mudavadi into the presidential contest will recast it in a most profound manner and force both Raila and Uhuru to the drawing board.
Mr Mudavadi has been insulted and slighted by both camps. Raila’s group has, over the years, failed to accord him the respect, stature and dignity Mr Mudavadi so obviously deserves.
Raila has always assumed that Mr Mudavadi has no option but to stick with him. He has also assumed that he doesn’t need Mr Mudavadi to get the votes in western Kenya.
His candidature addresses the historic grievances of both Mr Mudavadi and his people against Raila. It gives Mr Mudavadi an opportunity to square off with Raila in his home turf and address the issues that have hitherto remained unresolved.
Mr Mudavadi has also been wronged and slighted by the Uhuru camp. The Jubilee team went to him of their own volition and handed him the presidency, literally on a silver platter. They signed an agreement to this effect.
Then, suddenly, Uhuru reneged on the agreement and left Mr Mudavadi stranded. It is time for Mr Mudavadi to square off with Uhuru and settle the scores.
Mr Mudavadi’s candidature is critical in how the two million Luhya votes will be cast in the coming election. Between Uhuru and Raila, the latter has a lot to lose from Mr Mudavadi’s candidature.
Mr Mudavadi will also make western Kenya the most critical vote bloc in the entire country. For his candidature to be noticed and feared, Mr Mudavadi must rally his base and galvanise the community.
He is greatly helped in this regard by Mr Wamalwa who can rally a critical mass to the new cause. Their rallying call is simply to tell the community that Mr Mudavadi’s candidature provides the best opportunity to end the political bridesmaid role that community has historically been assigned to.
For Raila, Mr Mudavadi poses the greatest obstacle on the path to State House. Mr Odinga will be forced to spend a lot of time and resources on a region that was previously considered his political backyard.
The presidential election will narrow down to a contest over western Kenya between Mr Mudavadi and Mr Odinga. Mr Mudavadi now becomes the fulcrum around whom all rotate in western Kenya.
Mr Odinga has critical support there and, at the end, it all depends on the percentage. If Mr Mudavadi gets just 50 per cent of the western vote, Mr Odinga will have an uphill task on March 4.
Ahmednasir Abdullahi
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