How the presidential race could be won in round one

By Alex Ndegwa

NAIROBI; KENYA: Presidential aspirants Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta are both within striking distance of a first round victory in the March 4 General Election, pollsters say.

The latest Ipsos Synovate opinion poll gives Raila a six-point lead over Uhuru, his main challenger. Their battle to get to the 50-per-cent-plus-one-vote threshold needed to take the presidency is, therefore, likely to be decided in less than a dozen counties, which are home to half the nation’s voting population.

“There is no solid basis for predicting the actual outcome as of now,” Synovate officials said, citing factors such as turnout rates on Election Day.

Raila, the CORD alliance candidate, is preferred by 46 per cent of registered voters, while 40 per cent say they would vote for Uhuru, the Jubilee Alliance flag-bearer. Five per cent of those polled were undecided or did not answer the question.

In a survey by the same pollster last month, Raila and Uhuru stood at 34 per cent and 27 per cent, while 18 per cent of voters were undecided. 

A poll by rival pollster Infotrak Harris released two weeks ago suggested Raila would win in the first round with 51 per cent of the popular vote.

Registered voters

Only one in 10 registered voters says they will vote for another candidate in the race to State House. As the leading contenders prepare to begin campaigns in earnest, the focus turns to the 10 counties with the largest numbers of voters. The counties are key to meeting the first yardstick of outright victory, with a total of 6.5 million registered voters or almost half of the country’s 14, 337, 399 electors.

Nairobi County has the highest number of registered voters, 1.7 million, with the only other counties that recorded more than half a million voters being Kiambu (860, 716), Nakuru (695, 879) and Kakamega (568, 813).

Low turnout during voter registration and demographic factors are expected to limit the influence of some counties with high populations, such as Mandera, Migori, Kitui and Kilifi.

Meru (483, 517), Murang’a (457, 052), Machakos (445, 819), Kisii (414, 493), Mombasa (412, 602) and Bungoma (411, 981) complete the list of Top Ten vote-rich counties.

Voter behaviour in these regions is expected to have a major impact on the outcome of the presidential race. Past elections have shown high voter turnouts in the home turfs of top presidential candidates.

Nairobi and Kiambu counties are the primary stomping grounds of the two main contenders, who also command strong support in Nyanza and Central Kenya. In the 2007 elections, pitting Raila against President Kibaki, Central had an average turnout of 82 per cent, Nyanza (76), Rift Valley (73), Eastern (70), Western (62), Nairobi (57) and Coast (51). The high voter turnout in Central cushioned President Kibaki, whose re-election faced stiff challenge from ODM’s Raila.

Competition for gubernatorial, Senate and National Assembly positions is likely to influence the presidential vote in most counties. Having strong candidates who do not face competition from within their alliance or from their main rival coalition is the ideal situation. However, after chaotic nominations, both Cord and Jubilee can expect a few surprises even in perceived strongholds.

Nairobi is the stage for epic duels for the 47 Governor and 47 Senate seats between the two coalitions. Jubilee/TNA’s Ferdinard Waititu and CORD’s Evans Kidero were the key combatants for governor but Jimnah Mbaru, who was beaten by Waititu in the primaries, is in the contest on an Alliance Party of Kenya ticket.

The vote could depict a class struggle and campaigns will be a showdown between Uhuru and Raila’s teams. As a pointer to how strategic the contest is to the presidential teams, TNA picked former Treasury head of budget Robin Achoki as Waititu’s running mate. The move is apparently meant to appease middle class voters who have resisted Waititu’s candidacy.

The decision reportedly was reached after recent campaigns in Kisii County, where although Jubilee Alliance has point men including Foreign Affairs minister Sam Ongeri, ODM presents a challenge.

 Assistant minister Margaret Wanjiru and former Makadara MP Gidion ‘Mike Sonko’ Mbuvi’s clash for the Senate will drive the presidential campaigns for their respective candidates.

In Murang’a and Kiambu TNA is the party to beat. Mwangi wa Iria is front runner for governor in Murang’a while in Kiambu competition for the seat pits former Juja MP William Kabogo of TNA against Narc’s James Nyoro.

In Nakuru URP did not field a candidate for governor: Former Administration Police commandant Kinuthia Mbugua secured the TNA ticket. Mbugua will face off with Lawrence Bomet of CORD/ODM and Francis Kiranga (Narc-Kenya).

CORD has the advantage in Machakos, where Raila’s running mate Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper party is popular.

Turf wars

The contest for governor pits former Government spokesman Alfred Mutua (Cord/Wiper) against Assistant minister Wavinya Ndeti (CORD/Wiper), who secured the support of Mutua’s rival for the Wiper ticket, former minister Mutua Katuku. Machakos Senate candidate Johnstone Muthama is opposed to Mutua’s candidacy, claiming he was a Kalonzo ‘stooge’.

With President Kibaki retiring, rival presidential teams are courting Meru, which has voted for Kibaki in past three presidential elections since 1992.

Raila, Uhuru, United Democratic Forum’s Musalia Mudavadi, Kenya National Congress Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua (Narc- Kenya) have made numerous campaign stops in Meru. RBK’s James ole Kiyiapi even picked his running mate from the region.

Higher Education assistant minister Kilemi Mwiria who secured TNA ticket to contest for Meru governor is the Jubilee point man. But Uhuru is also banking on former MPs who are defending their seats including Mithika Linturi, Kareke Mbiuki and Silas Ruteere to campaign for his bid.

The influence of Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi, who is running for Senate, and whose APK has fielded candidates for various positions in the region, cannot be underestimated.

Kiraitu had backed Uhuru’s candidacy but felt slighted when he chose to form TNA rather than join APK. Kiraitu faces off for the Senate seat with former Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara who has endorsed Raila’s candidacy.  Kakamega and Bungoma are expected to be battlegrounds where Raila and Mudavadi will test their supremacy.

Both are tussling for the western vote, the latter counting on the region as his home turf while the former is aware the bloc is critical to his presidential run.

In Kakamega Planning Assistant minister Wycliffe Oparanya is the CORD/ODM candidate for Governor, it is the feud between Amani-affiliated candidates Paul Olando and Soita Shitanda that spices up the contest. Shitanda, the Housing minister, defected to New Ford Kenya after UDF blocked him from party primaries in favour of Olando, a former PC.

In Bungoma Assistant minister Alfred Khangati (CORD/ODM) will fight it out with former PS Kenneth Lusaka (Amani/NFK).

Raila is banking on Foreign Affairs minister Moses Wetangula, while Mudavadi has Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa to court Bungoma.