By Jacob Ng’etich and Stephen Makabila
The emergence of a third force and prospects of a run-off in the presidential race is gaining currency following the Friday unveiling of Amani Coalition with Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi as its flag-bearer.
About three weeks since he quit the Jubilee Coalition in a huff, Mudavadi was formally endorsed by delegates from United Democratic Forum (UDF), New Ford Kenya, Kanu and 11 affiliate parties to vie for the presidency under the Amani Coalition ticket thereby ending uncertainty of his next move.
Mudavadi said if elected, he was determined to create a collective and consultative government that represents all Kenyans and push for a seven-point agenda which would include addressing insecurity, unemployment and economic growth.
“I will offer sober, realistic and pragmatic leadership. My DNA does not have the virus to threaten revenge and discriminate against any Kenyan,” said Mudavadi.
Mudavadi’s entrance into the presidential race portends a new nightmare for the other two contenders Prime Minister Raila Odinga under CORD and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta with the Jubilee Alliance.
The presence of Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa in Mudavadi’s camp has the potential of helping the Sabatia MP gain ground in larger parts of Western Province, but a lot will depend on the effectiveness of Amani Alliance campaign strategy.
Another entrant into Mudavadi’s group is Gideon Moi who too Mudavadi hopes will help him consolidate votes in Baringo County and its environs.
If his political maths works according to plan, Mudavadi may be in a position to re-shape the likely voting patterns in both Western and Rift Valley regions, which are among key regions targeted by the Amani Coalition.
Luhya population
It is significant to note that Wamalwa’s Bukusu sub-tribe and Mudavadi’s Maragoli sub-tribe in between them form about 70 per cent of the Luhya population within Western and in the Diaspora. But translating this into viable votes will be the biggest challenge for Mudavadi considering that Raila Odinga too has his eyes set on Western votes and has already invested significant political resources to attract the votes to his CORD group.
But Wamalwa still sounded ebullient when he spoke to The Standard On Sunday, saying: “We are going to hit the ground running and those against Luhya unity should be ready to be swept aside. Our campaigns are going to be well coordinated and synchronised to ensure that we get majority votes in Western.”
Locking Luhya votes
The Saboti MP said that by backing Mudavadi, his aim was to ensure that the western Kenya will vote as a united bloc, something that has been elusive in all past elections.
Former Livestock PS Ken Lusaka, a strong Wamalwa ally contesting the Bungoma Governor position, says, “The contest for Western votes would be between those out to unite the community and boost its bargain nationally and those who want the community to play second fiddle behind others.” This is a thinly veiled barb directed at Raila Odinga and CORD.
Apart from Wamalwa, Mudavadi will be depending on Housing minister Soita Shitanda, Assistant ministers George Khaniri and Manyala Keya and a strong team of MPs Musikari Kombo, Kizito Mugali, Dr Bonny Khalwale, Yusuf Chanzu, Ben Washiali, Alfred Sambu, as well as former Trade minister Dr Mukhisa Kituyi to market his bid in the region.
In Rift Valley Province, Mudavadi will be banking on Kanu national chairman Gideon Moi, Secretary General Nick Salat, Mogotio MP Prof Hellen Sambili and Prof John Lonyangapuo in West-Pokot County to market his presidential bid.
Beside the perception that Eldoret North MP William Ruto United Republic Party (URP) enjoys support in the region, Kanu has equally a strong grassroots network and given Mudavadi is perceived to be acceptable in the region, arithmetic’s could change. At Bomas, Gideon said the independence party will use its machinery to campaign for Mudavadi to ensure he succeeds President Kibaki.
Horses and ‘non-horses’
The Kanu chairman criticised those saying the next polls will be a two-horse race and described Mudavadi as a thoroughbred stallion who deserves to take over the country’s leadership. Gideon, an accomplished polo player familiar with horses, cynically added: “If it is a matter of horses, Musalia is a thoroughbred stallion. The rest are not even horses.”
During his campaigns for the ODM nominations, Mudavadi was referred to as lakwet nyo (our child). It should be noted that Mudavadi was born in Baringo while his father; the late Moses Mudavadi was serving as the area District Education Officer.
Of interest is that the Amani Coalition flag bearer appears to enjoy the support of two Presidents, a former and an incumbent.
The presence at Mudavadi’s endorsement function and prominent role that was played by Gideon, son of former President Moi is strong pointer where the elder Moi’s may have decided to invest politically.
In 2002, when Moi was crafting his succession politics, he appointed Mudavadi as his Vice-President and thereby placing him as a possible deputy to his then preferred candidate Uhuru Kenyatta.
State House links
On the other hand, although Kibaki’s State House has sought to distance itself from the perception that Kibaki prefers Mudavadi as his successor, it is not lost to keen observers that the DPM has close links to operatives from the House on the hill.
It is also significant to note that President Kibaki’s nephew and Assistant minister; Nderitu Muriithi is a firm supporter of Mudavadi presidency, another indicative pointer.
Mudavadi’s political vehicle, the United Democratic Forum, was founded by Prof Nick Wanjohi (an aide to President Kibaki) together with other political players associated with the President including his nephew Muriithi.
It is unlikely that UDF party and its operatives could have been involved in laying groundwork for Kibaki Succession without the knowledge, a nod and a wink from the incumbent president.
It is however not automatic that endorsement — whether over or covert — from Moi and Kibaki will translate into votes for Mudavadi, though of course this naturally translates to significant resource mobilisation.
But as President Moi found out in 2002 when he marshalled government resources and machinery to campaign for Uhuru Kenyatta, support from an incumbent is often a double-edged sword.
However, Nominated MP George Nyamweya sees the tacit endorsement by the two senior politicians as evidence that Mudavadi is the right person for the job.
“What is wrong with Kibaki and Moi supporting Mudavadi, it is a clear indication that he is the right material for the country and the two senior politicians complete with their experience have noted that,” said Nyamweya. Of course political reality and history tells a different story.
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