Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Front-runners emerge as parties submit lists


By STANDARD TEAM
Nairobi, Kenya: Leading political parties fighting for State House and control of government and legislative institutions have submitted their final lists of candidates for the various seats on offer on March 4.
The parties fighting out in the 47 Counties have reportedly submitted names of high-profiled personalities on whom they are counting on to sweep the electoral votes for the various cadres when the whistle is blown.

By Tuesday, only the lists of four main parties, which had concluded their nominations and compilation of the requisite documents  — United Republican Party, Orange Democratic Movement, The National Alliance and Wiper Democratic Movement — had not been made public.
However, United Democratic Front and Narc- Kenya, gave out their comprehensive lists.
However, available information from the various parties, gleaned from records of nomination results, shows that in areas where some given parties are dominant, its candidates are automatic frontrunners. This is particularly true when you factor in the influence ethnicity has on performance of parties in certain regions.   
Though there are always surprises, still one can’t rule out that in predominantly ODM Nyanza bloc, Orange ticket holders would have a good start, while Kalenjin communities in the Rift Valley would back Mr William Ruto’s URP and its Jubilee coalition, while in Western Kenya, Mr Musalia Mudavadi’s UDF’s party ticket holders would also have a head-start.
It would be the same case for those who have just clinched the ticket of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta’s The National Alliance in the vast parts of Mount Kenya region and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka’s home turf, Eastern Province, which is the base of his Wiper party.
This would explain why in regions dominated by these parties nomination race were treated as an end in itself, because the tickets of the dominant parties are seen as near guarantee to electoral victory.  
The four countries in Dholuo-speaking Luo-Nyanza — namely Siaya, Kisumu, Migori and Homa Bay — have reflected similar political trends. In Kisumu County, Jack Ranguma, 58, who won an ODM ticket is advantaged in race for Governor. He has a Master’s Degree in Accounting and Finance.
In Siaya, Lands Minister James Orengo could be smiling to the Senate because his nomination was not as controversial as that of Immigration Minister Otieno Kajwang in Homa Bay County.
Surprise nominee
Still in Siaya, Mr Otieno Okanja, became the surprise ODM nominee for the Governor race, after the acrimony between Assistant Minister Oburu Odinga and his rival William Oduol resulted in a stalemate.
Mr Okanja, a former banker with Kenya Commercial Bank, was given direct nomination as the party dropped both Oburu and Oduol from the ticket.
Mr Cyprian Otieno Awiti, 62, could easily be the first Governor of the expansive Homa Bay County. In Migori, Prof Oyugi Akong’o, who has worked as a university don for years, won the ODM ticket.
Candidates vying on URP tickets in Uasin Gishu and Nandi may as well consider themselves elected following strong support for the party in the two regions.
Out of the six counties in the North Rift, URP can claim almost 90 per cent support.
That may not necessarily be the case in Counties where Kanu has fielded strong candidates, like in the North and South Rift areas where, for example, Kanu Chairman Gideon Moi could disappoint Ruto’s party by winning the seat. But still in the same County, former Higher Education Loans Board secretary, Mr Benjamin Cheboi, could already have had his victory in the Governor race after clinching the URP ticket.
It will also be tough in areas like Nandi where influential Cabinet minister Henry Kosgey will be going for the Senate seat on an ODM ticket. Across in Aldai, Agriculture minister Dr Sally Kosgei is wading through the URP tide on an ODM ticket, and may just overcome it.
Other parties in these two regions had little competition and most aspirants were cleared unopposed to run. In Uasin Gishu for instance, URP Secretary General Rehema Chemutai, said the recent battle for nominations attracted a record 400 aspirants.
Thus, Governor aspirant Jackson Mandago, Isaac Melly (Senate) and Eusilah Ngeny (Women Representative) may just be as good as elected.
Stiff competition
The same could be said of Dr Cleophas Lagat vying for Governor, Nandi County, even though he is facing stiff competition from Mr Judah Bett, of Kanu. In the URP team here is Mr Stephen Sang (Senate) and Zipporah Kering (Women Representative).
Political dynamics however differ in the other North Rift Counties of Elgeyo/Marakwet, Trans Nzoia, Turkana and West Pokot.
Voters in these regions have other political inclinations and do not necessarily vote with the party of the day when choosing their leaders.
For instance, Marakwet was for long considered ‘Othaya ndogo’ for always voting for the Democratic Party (DP), then headed by President Kibaki. In the South Rift, former Administration Police Commandant Kinuthia Mbugua, a career civil servant who begun as a District Officer in Marakwet has an upper hand. He will contest against Bishop Lawrence Bomett (ODM). Also in the race is Dr Francis Kiranga of UDF. In Kericho Prof Paul Chepkwony of URP is considered the front-runner.
Immediate former Chepalungu MP Isaac Rutto won the URP nomination race for Bomet Governor seat. He will also run against former Local Government Permanent Secretary Sammy Kirui (UDF)
In Kericho, Mr Charles Keter (URP) will be running against Stella Koech of ODM in a race he is seen as advantaged by his party’s profile here.
With the conclusion of the fiercely fought party nominations some of the candidates in Central Kenya may well be assured of the seats going by the popularity of their parties.
In Kirinyaga, Mr Joseph Ndathi, who beat Finance Minister Njeru Githae for the TNA ticket in the gubernatorial race, is facing little opposition.
Ndathi will be up against former MP James Kibicho of Narc-Kenya and Bedan Muriithi Kagai of Grand National Union (GNU).
In the nearby Murang’a County, Former Kenya Cooperative (KCC) Creameries Managing Director Francis Mwangi won TNA ticket in a close contest. Having trounced among others former Assistant Minister Joshua Toro, Mwangi is in a good position that could guarantee victory. 
In the Nyeri Senate race, former Mathira MP Euphraim Maina (TNA) will also be expecting to win in a hot race against Mr Chris Murungaru (DP) and Mr Mutahi Kagwe (Narc).
In Eastern, David Musila (Wiper) will take on Charity Ngilu (Narc) for the Kitui Senate Seat, while Education Minister Mutula Kilonzo (Wiper) will be against Haroun Mwau (PICK). These particular races are being seen as titanic in nature and there is no telling which way the vote may go. 
Former Government spokesman Dr Alfred Mutua (Wiper) could also be home and dry although he faces competition from Mrs Wavinya Ndeti (Chama Cha Uzalendo).
In Coast, and North Eastern Provinces, as well as the swing vote areas like Kisii and Meru, it is not easy to speculate where the winner may emerge from.




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