By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, October 6 2012 at 17:59
Posted Saturday, October 6 2012 at 17:59
IN SUMMARY
- According to the 2011 Forbes Magazine, Mr Kenyatta’s net worth is $500 million. He’s the 26th richest African on the planet.
- He’s the richest Kenyan. That means he’s not to be trifled with. That’s why if he can’t be the king, he will most definitely be the kingmaker.
- Methinks the fog has cleared over Mt Kenya and Mr Kenyatta has emerged as its overlord. I believe that President Kibaki and his State House mandarins want to “anoint” a successor, and seem to have settled on Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.
Legally, he’s on his deathbed. That’s because he faces grim charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC). But he’s potent — very potent — politically. This is particularly true in his native Mt Kenya region.
But this begs the question — does “Kamwana” have any purchase beyond his native digs? This is what I see — he could be the “biggest bogeyman” of the 2013 General Election.
But he can only succeed as a “kingmaker” and not as “the king”. My crystal ball tells me that’s exactly what the scion of Jomo intends to do — become the real power behind the throne.
Unknowns
Former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld used to say that in life there are many “unknown unknowns”.
We can’t predict the future with certainty. I’ve written here that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta — the aforementioned “Kamwana Prince” of the Mr Kenya region — won’t be on the ballot paper.
That’s because the ICC isn’t a recreation park. Folks who think I am wrong need to stop hallucinating. There’s nothing that shows that Mr Kenyatta lives in a thoughtless utopia.
He’s a cold, calculating political animal. He knows what will — and won’t — fly. That’s why Mr Kenyatta’s presidential bid isn’t an “unknown unknown” — it’s rather a “known known”.
But it’s not advantageous for him to make it a “known known”. What’s my point? Mr Kenyatta will keep the country guessing until the very last minute, and then unveil his “master plan”.
They say that a wounded lion is dangerous. That’s Mr Kenyatta’s state right now — he’s caged, but not vanquished.
The ICC may have laid waste his ultimate goal, but hasn’t neutered him politically. Modern electoral politics is largely about money — and Mr Kenyatta has plenty of it.
According to the 2011 Forbes Magazine, Mr Kenyatta’s net worth is $500 million. He’s the 26th richest African on the planet.
He’s the richest Kenyan. That means he’s not to be trifled with. That’s why if he can’t be the king, he will most definitely be the kingmaker.
Methinks the fog has cleared over Mt Kenya and Mr Kenyatta has emerged as its overlord. I believe that President Kibaki and his State House mandarins want to “anoint” a successor, and seem to have settled on Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.
Snowball’s chance
But Mr Kibaki is the past and his “chosen one” won’t be embraced by the House of Mumbi unless the son of Jomo says so.
That’s why Mr Mudavadi has a snowball’s chance in hell of inheriting the Kikuyu vote unless Mr Kenyatta adopts him.
The Kikuyu elite will be torn between Mr Kenyatta’s and President Kibaki’s choices, but it will go with the former. Take this to the bank — the “future” will trump the “past”.
Just how did Mr Kenyatta get here? He was written off for dead when the ICC indicted him for crimes against humanity.
But he skillfully mobilised the Mt Kenya region by painting the ICC as an ODM conspiracy led by Prime Minister Raila Odinga to deny him the keys to State House.
The Kenyatta name still stirs many hearts in Kenya, especially among the Kikuyu. Besides, the world “loves” a prince.
Look at the aura of the monarchy in the UK, or the American fascination with the Kennedys. The Kenyattas are no different — they are Kenya’s royalty.
That’s why Mr Kenyatta has had a head-start against other Kenyans. This is unarguable in the Mt Kenya region.
But his conquest of the region hasn’t been a cakewalk. The late George Saitoti, another wealthy baron, posed a serious challenge.
Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi — a man with an intellect superior to Mr Kenyatta’s — has tried in vain to direct the region’s politics and force Mr Kenyatta into a broader alliance.
Couldn’t compete
Mr Murungi’s humble beginnings — although his father was a bona fide Mau Mau liberator — couldn’t compete with Mr Kenyatta’s panache, pedigree, and deep pockets.
He fruitlessly tried to herd Mr Kenyatta, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Prof Saitoti into several doomed “buses”.
The “Prince” wouldn’t be dictated to — at least not by “earthlings”. His dad — the incomparable Burning Spear himself — would have been proud of his progeny.
Then there is President Kibaki and his operatives who have concluded that Mr Kenyatta shouldn’t be his successor at State House.
Mr Kenyatta understood that the only way to get his way — and make Mr Kibaki’s inner cabal cave — was to display political muscle.
But he couldn’t do so without “his own” political party. That’s why he ditched Kanu and made up TNA.
He knew that PNU couldn’t be his — not with the likes of Prof Saitoti, Mr Murungi, Mr Musyoka — and the large shadow of President Kibaki in the background.
Mr Kenyatta also knew that PNU was fractious, “regional,” visionless, tired, leaderless, and unwieldy — in other words “damaged goods”. That’s why he formed the “new-look” TNA.
The truth is that TNA is a repackaged PNU. Don’t be fooled — it’s the party of choice now for the Mt Kenya region.
That’s why folks from the region are decamping en masse to TNA. By winning hands down recent by-elections in the region, Mr Kenyatta sealed the deal.
He “officially” became Mr Kibaki’s successor in the region. Virtually all legislators in the region will troop to TNA.
But don’t expect Mr Kenyatta to be TNA’s presidential candidate. It’s a formidable tool for him to “anoint” the next President and other candidates for elective offices. Mr Kenyatta can’t be ignored.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.
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