Ruto deal to upset Raila, Kalonzo plot

By Oscar Obonyo and Mwaniki Munuhe

Eldoret North MP William Ruto remains ODM’s primary target for a political deal, reliable sources say, even as talk of other suitors emerged.

With just a month left to seal pre-election pacts, approaches are being made to various targets, some of which are just for show or do not involve an offer to be on the party’s joint presidential ticket.

Although insiders say ODM leader Raila Odinga is consulting with “virtually all the big names” on the political scene, only two serious moves have come to the fore — those involving Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Eldoret North MP insist they should stay in the running for State House.

Claims of talks with other leaders to back Raila as his running mate may be just that, as indicated by the recent reaction from Gichugu MP Martha Karua, who rejected such talk.

 Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta’s team has also laughed off suggestions the TNA leader may drop out of the race.

The recent approach to Ruto generated a lot interest across the political divide. So has the latest hint by Kangundo MP Johnstone Muthama that the VP and PM may be working on a deal. This new move may be inspired by the need to secure numbers ahead of the General Election following Ruto’s insistence he would only consider a post-election coalition. But it is not clear how Kalonzo would be accommodated with Ruto in the wings also seeking a deal.

Credible sources familiar with the intrigues of the secret Raila-Ruto meeting claim a deal is still in play, despite strong opposition in the Rift Valley.

According to our sources, Lands Minister James Orengo is “fine tuning” a draft agreement on how ODM and URP would work together for the elections.

“Jim (the minister) was finalising the draft for review during the PM’s next meeting with Ruto, when news of another Ruto-Uhuru deal cropped up,” said the party insider, who asked not to be named. “The scheduled meeting did not take place, but the document is ready.”

Some URP-linked politicians have expressed strong reservations to any deal with ODM. It is not clear whether this short-term setback informed the proposed deal with Kalonzo. Nonetheless, Muthama and other politicians privy to the overtures claim the two leaders have made formal contacts and held a series of talks.

Stating that the VP was aware of the deal and had reportedly asked the people of Machakos to welcome Raila, the MP summarily concluded that a Kalonzo-Raila deal was on card. But Francis Mwangangi, head of Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) Ambassadors, a lobby group that supports Kalonzo’s presidential bid, dismisses Muthama’s sentiments as personal views. Claiming the MP is a member of Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi’s Alliance Party of Kenya, aka ‘The Bus’, Mwangangi maintains the VP will be running for president.

Muthama stood by his comments: “The Raila-Kalonzo deal is on, unless of course they now decide to backtrack because it has been made public.”

Also on Raila’s radar, party insiders say, are Trade Minister Moses Wetangula, Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister Eugene Wamalwa, former Education Permanent Secretary Prof James ole Kiyiapi, and Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo – all of whom are presidential hopefuls. But The Standard On Saturday could not confirm the credibility of these claims.

Wetangula conceded he was “closely in touch” with the PM over a political pact with his Ford-Kenya party. Lately, there has been a public show of unity between Raila’s Orange party and Ford-Kenya, including the last weekend, when Wildlife and Forestry minister, Noah Wekesa, accompanied the PM in his tour of western Kenya.

“But besides Raila, we are also talking to other players, including (Deputy PM Musalia) Mudavadi, courtesy of mediation talks by (Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli). This is the way to go, considering that complex nature of next year’s polls,” says Wetangula.

And describing ODM as a giant, Joint Government Whip Jakoyo Midiwo says the party is reaching out to all political giants.

Meanwhile, members of Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP) have worked out a poll projection that has persuaded them to exclude Kalonzo and Mudavadi from a pre-poll pact.

In their calculations, seen by The Standard On Saturday, operatives of the party identify Uhuru and Raila as the best possible partners. Uhuru is believed to have control of at least 11 counties compared to Raila’s seven, while Mudavadi and Kalonzo are seen to hold sway in three each. URP believes Ruto can carry 19 counties. The arithmetic is in line with dictates of the new Constitution, which requires an outright presidential winner to bag at least 25 per cent of the votes in at least 24 of 47 counties.

“Politics is about numbers and so we are only talking to people we believe can help us win majority in Parliament and the Senate,” said Dujis MP, Aden Duale.

 “We want to partner with presidential aspirants, who can easily deliver 15 counties and you can easily tell who can deliver this expectation and who cannot.”..

But having painted Raila in bad light over the last four years, some URP leaders claim it would be difficult to undo the damage.

“It’s absolutely impossible to go back to ODM having spent four years bashing Raila. How can we go back to the same party? Our people would lose confidence in us. The choices may be hard but an Uhuru-Ruto alliance is more appealing,” says Joshua Kuttuny. But Belgut MP, Charles Keter observes there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics, only interests.

“You may not like somebody, but if they have the numbers what do you do?” he says.