By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, September 8 2012 at 19:23
Posted Saturday, September 8 2012 at 19:23
IN SUMMARY
- But I will tell you this – Mr Kibaki wants to ensure there’s a smooth and legitimate transition after the polls next year. He desperately wants to safeguard his legacy.
- That’s why he will move heaven and earth to ensure that the polls are viewed as universally free and fair. That’s also why he’s played his cards close to his vest.
- Even though he favoured Mr Kenyatta, he never publicly anointed him. He’s cunning. That’s why he cleverly never boxed himself by saying “Uhuru Tosha”.
They say that in politics there are no permanent enemies or foes – only permanent interests.
It’s that maxim that drove President Kibaki to the pinnacle of political power in Kenya. The man was dogged in pursuing his interests.
It’s the same calculus that appears to be driving his relationship with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. President Kibaki seems to have abandoned Mr Kenyatta.
You can take this to the bank – the man from Othaya has dumped Jomo’s son.
The moneyed Kikuyu elite around Mr Kibaki seems to have decided that Mr Kenyatta shouldn’t be the man to succeed him at State House. Faced with impossible odds, they’ve rolled the dice against Mr Kenyatta. This is why.
You can say what you want about Mr Kibaki, but you can’t take away the fact that he’s a patriot. The man loves Kenya. Whether he’s done right by Kenya is a different question.
But I will tell you this – Mr Kibaki wants to ensure there’s a smooth and legitimate transition after the polls next year. He desperately wants to safeguard his legacy.
That’s why he will move heaven and earth to ensure that the polls are viewed as universally free and fair. That’s also why he’s played his cards close to his vest.
Even though he favoured Mr Kenyatta, he never publicly anointed him. He’s cunning. That’s why he cleverly never boxed himself by saying “Uhuru Tosha”. Mr Kibaki and his closest aides kept Mr Kenyatta guessing.
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I actually think they never intended to support Mr Kenyatta’s presidential bid in the first place. But they needed him and his allies in central Kenya to govern.
Mr Kibaki’s PNU wing in the government would have been impotent without Mr Kenyatta’s support. With only months before the polls, the clock has run out on the coalition government, and Mr Kibaki doesn’t need Mr Kenyatta any more.
His unarguable interests dictate – for reasons I will give – that he tosses Mr Kenyatta to the wind. There’s nothing new about this. Mr Kibaki’s history shows that he’s a master at using – and dumping – his allies. It’s Mr Kenyatta’s turn to be dumped.
I believe Mr Kibaki and his closest advisers knew that it would be politically unwise – and destabilising – for him to be succeeded by a fellow Kikuyu. He is on the same page with many – if not most – Kenyans on this thinking.
Mr Kibaki knows that Kenya is an ethnically fragile country. He’s not forgotten that ethnic tensions nearly collapsed the country after the contested 2007 polls.
He’s alive to the fact that three out of the last four presidents would be Kikuyu were Mr Kenyatta to succeed him.
That’s not good optics. Nor does it “disenfranchise” the Kikuyu as some people disingenuously argue. I applaud Mr Kibaki for his wisdom on this matter. He may just save Kenya.
This is where Mr Kibaki’s interests and those of Kenya converge. It’s no use pretending that Kenya isn’t an ethnic tinderbox. Or arguing, as some have, that Mr Kenyatta has the right to seek the presidency in spite of his ancestry.
Very true – but beside the point. Nation-building in fragile post-colonial states like Kenya is a delicate process. The legitimacy – and even survival of the state – may depend on the “optics of inclusion”.
If people from one group are “perceived” to exercise disproportionate power – whether true or not – the state could catch fatal pneumonia.
This is a sure way to flush Mr Kibaki’s legacy down the drain. That’s why he’s put some distance between himself and Mr Kenyatta.
I also believe that the charges for crimes against humanity facing Mr Kenyatta at the International Criminal Court have played a part in Mr Kibaki’s calculus.
But let me hasten to add that this isn’t the primary reason Mr Kibaki has turned away from Mr Kenyatta. I think Mr Kibaki “feels” for Mr Kenyatta because of his tribulations at The Hague.
That’s because Mr Kenyatta came to Mr Kibaki’s rescue at his hour of need. Mr Kenyatta made it difficult for ODM to “cannibalise” Mr Kibaki’s PNU.
Apart from VP Kalonzo Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta was an indispensable political ally. To repay the debt, Mr Kibaki has done all he could to stop the ICC from “nabbing” Mr Kenyatta.
It’s unfortunate for Mr Kenyatta and Mr Kibaki that all the machinations to sabotage the ICC have come to naught.
But I think Mr Kibaki now feels that there’s nothing more he can do to stop the ICC. He believes he’s repaid Mr Kenyatta’s debt, and doesn’t owe him anything else, including the presidency.
Mr Kibaki knows that his legacy would be destroyed if a person indicted – or convicted – for crimes against humanity were to succeed him.
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He doesn’t want Kenya to become a pariah state – like Sudan – whose president has been indicted for genocide by the ICC. Between Mr Kenyatta’s political ambitions and his legacy, Mr Kibaki has made the easy choice to safeguard his own legacy.
Mr Kibaki’s decision to turn away from Mr Kenyatta leaves the presidential race wide open. It’s likely that Mr Kenyatta may withdraw from the contest if the Kikuyu elite don’t back him.
There are four likely beneficiaries if he exits. UDF’s Musalia Mudavadi, who appears to enjoy the tacit support of Mr Kibaki’s handlers, could move to the front.
So could VP Musyoka, who shares cousinage with the Kikuyu. But no one should overlook PM Raila Odinga.
The Kikuyu may back him in a historic pact. Narc-Kenya’s Martha Karua, though Kikuyu, could “neutralise” her ethnicity because of gender.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.
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