Saturday, September 8, 2012

Uhuru Kenyatta test on rivals


By Standard Team
Details of how Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta plans to play his political card in the General Election have emerged.
The Standard On Saturday has exclusively obtained a strategic plan prepared by a think tank in the deputy premier’s team of advisors that contains in-depth analysis of possible scenarios, and how Uhuru can use the same to attain his political objective.
The document analyses key presidential aspirants, ranging from their political experience, financial capacity, charisma, moral standing, voting block, oratory skills, organisational capacity, flexibility, trustworthiness, leadership, and public trust among others.
The document further provides what appears to be an objective analysis in the opinion of the advisors of what would be the scenario if Uhuru were a presidential candidate with each of the other key contenders, as his running mate and vice verse.
Although Uhuru has been seen to be working closely with Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, and whereas Wamalwa is largely seen as Uhuru’s running mate, the document portrays Wamalwa as a weak politician with whom the deputy premier would score the poorest, compared to other key presidential aspirants.
The strategy paper portrays Eldoret North MP William Ruto as the best running mate Uhuru would have at 49 per cent.  United Democratic Forum presidential aspirant Musalia Mudavadi follows at 48 per cent. Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka tie in the third position at 47 per cent. Wamalwa is the last at 42 per cent.
But none of the combination would make it to 30 per cent if Uhuru were to be the running mate to each of candidates.  It says a Ruto-Uhuru combination would still be the best at 28 per cent, Uhuru-Mudavadi (27 per cent), Uhuru-Raila (26 per cent), and Uhuru-Kalonzo (26 per cent). Wamalwa was not rated in this category, and no reason is given for the omission.
However, the document appears to have been drafted in August 2010, and political scenarios have since changed. This means the situations anticipated during the drafting may equally have changed.
The advisors, according to the document, concluded that Mudavadi would be the second-most appropriate running mate for Uhuru. However, the document places Kalonzo at position four, with Wamalwa coming in last in terms of the best candidate to be Uhuru’s running mate.
“KM (Kalonzo Musyoka) with a vote strength of 10 per cent is fourth placed, but is low on the trustworthiness among the public and his peers in the political leadership. EW (Eugene Wamalwa) has a voting strength of five per cent from the Bukusu, but has positive indexes in terms of public and peer political perceptions of his trustworthiness. He would most likely be flexible to accept the running mate position,” reads part of the document.
It will be remembered that Uhuru has fallen out with some parties in the Party of National Unity, a coalition partner of ODM in Government. A meeting meant to resolve the differences in the G7, and which was attended by, among others, MPs Jonhstone Muthama, Lenny Kivuti, and Esther Murugi did not agree on anything substantial. It, instead, resolved to ask the principals in the alliance to meet and address the differences.
Politically ambitious
Notably, it is this strategic document that proposed the Limuru II meeting, which was interrupted by former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga’s supporters.
Issues in the new Constitution, according to the document that would interfere with the presidential race include leadership and integrity, representation, Legislature, Executive, Judiciary, devolved governments, public finance, public service, and transitional clauses.
The document describes Raila as an ambitious politician with wide political experience. “TA (Raila Odinga) has the longest and most ambitious political track record. He hails from a political family since pre-independence period. His community is nine per cent of Kenya’s population and believes in him.  He is so politically ambitious, been held in detention, and is a real political enigma. He has twice contested for presidency and used every means to win, but failed. He has tremendous energy and is a shrewd political organiser. He is determined to attain the leadership of this country at any cost. This could be his last presidential bid hence he regards it to be very crucial him.”
Kalonzo is described as: “The next in ranking in terms of political experience and length of track record. He had humble beginnings and knows what it means to be a commoner. He is a diplomat, religious, a gentleman, and exhibits the character of a servant of the people. He has high moral and integrity standing. He has contested for presidency once without success.”  Uhuru is described as a politically alert politician who attracts enthusiasm. “KK (Uhuru Kenyatta) has a moderate political experience and moderate track record. He is a pedigree of the Royal Family and of the upper class.  He is politically alert and easily attracts public enthusiasm. He has acceptable moral and integrity standing.”
Ruto is described as a politician with tremendous energy and good oratory skills, but his moral standing is put to question.”  “KW (William Ruto) has political experience of 18 years of relative controversy. He has a humble background, but went into high-profile politics straight from school. His moral and integrity standing is questionable. He is a politician with tremendous energy.”
Gichugu MP, Martha Karua, is described as a politician with great tenacity and one that has admirable organisational skills.
“She has moderate political experience, but can be described as person of obscure background.  Although she hails from a large community, she has little following because of her abrasiveness and defiance of the establishment.”



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