Focus now shifts to security agencies as polls approach
By EMEKA-MAYAKA GEKARA gmayaka@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, September 1 2012 at 19:59
Posted Saturday, September 1 2012 at 19:59
IN SUMMARY
- Questions are also being raised on whether the law enforcement agencies and other national institutions can guarantee a peaceful transition, given their alleged role in the 2007/8 election chaos that killed 1,133 Kenyans and displaced 650,000 others.
- Indeed, the unspoken fear is whether presidential hopefuls will accept defeat. Opinion polls since 2008 have consistently said Mr Odinga is the man to beat. Will he concede defeat if he is beaten in March?
- Some of the institutions likely to make or break the country include the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission chaired by Mr Isaack Hassan, the police force currently headed by Mr Mathew Iteere, Gen Julius Karangi’s Kenya Defence Forces, the National Security Intelligence Service led by Mr Michael Gichangi among others.
The skirmishes in Mombasa and the killing of 52 people in Tana River and several others in Mandera has turned the focus on security agencies as the country prepares for the biggest election in its history.
Questions are also being raised on whether the law enforcement agencies and other national institutions can guarantee a peaceful transition, given their alleged role in the 2007/8 election chaos that killed 1,133 Kenyans and displaced 650,000 others.
The Waki Commission, which investigated the causes of the 2007/8 violence, blamed the police for a security lapse, the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) and key politicians for the violence.
The Kriegler Commission which probed the conduct of the General Election returned an even harsher verdict: The process was in shambles and the institutions and individuals involved were partisan, corrupt and recklessly incompetent.
This explains why critical institutions and politicians are being watched keenly as the country prepares for the March 4 election.
Some of the institutions likely to make or break the country include the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission chaired by Mr Isaack Hassan, the police force currently headed by Mr Mathew Iteere, Gen Julius Karangi’s Kenya Defence Forces, the National Security Intelligence Service led by Mr Michael Gichangi, the Administration Police, the Internal Security ministry and the Public Service headed by Mr Francis Kimemia.
The other key individuals for a peaceful Kenya next year will be leading politicians, particularly President Kibaki, and presidential hopefuls Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.
There is also Chief Justice Willy Mutunga, Director of Public Prosecutions Keriako Tobiko and the Registrar of Political Parties, Mrs Lucy Ndung’u.
Nominated MP Mohammed Affey on Saturday said President Kibaki, the Big Five presidential hopefuls, judiciary, electoral team and the police hold the key to a peaceful election.
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“President Kibaki has a duty to ensure a peaceful transfer of power and the leading candidates must not incite the people and be ready to accept election results,” he told the Sunday Nation.
Indeed, the unspoken fear is whether presidential hopefuls will accept defeat. Opinion polls since 2008 have consistently said Mr Odinga is the man to beat. Will he concede defeat if he is beaten in March?
Speaking at the national peace conference in Nairobi on Monday, Mr Odinga said there were no options to a peaceful transition. He said losers in the presidential race should concede defeat in “a fair and open” competition.
Mr Musyoka concurred: “If you lose the elections, just accept and wait until 2017 or go to court if you are dissatisfied,” he said.
The credibility of the IEBC has been tainted by recent squabbles over the tender for an electronic voter register and alleged infighting among commissioners.
This has raised fears of history repeating itself amid concerns the commission was following the slipstream of its predecessor, ECK, that bungled the 2007 elections due to inefficiency and partisanship.
The Registrar of Political Parties is being accused of breaking the very rules she was appointed to enforce to ensure discipline in parties.
Mrs Ndung’u, who works under the IEBC, allowed aspirants to swap parties after losing nominations in the Kajiado and Kangema by-elections. (READ: Fraud fears as IEBC turns to old poll kit)
The law does not allow switching of parties six months to an election, and Mrs Ndungu’s failure to punish the party hoppers has raised fears the illegality could be replicated in the General Election.
Mr Affey said the IEBC could either “inspire confidence in the election or cause tension”. He also said that the country plunged into chaos because Kenyans did not have faith in the courts to seek redress over allegations of rigging.
Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have been indicted by the International Criminal Court over the post-election violence, together with former Civil Service boss Francis Muthaura and radio presenter Joshua Sang. The hearing starts next April.
“The Mutunga courts must inspire confidence by swift and fair resolutions of election disputes,” Mr Affey said. Besides the electoral disputes, the courts must rule whether the Big Five are eligible to vie for the presidency over alleged integrity concerns.
Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi on Saturday expressed confidence that the election would be peaceful. “We have learnt our lessons from the last election. A lot of resources have been spent in peace efforts; the police and Judiciary are being reformed.
"The President has declared that he will go when his time comes. He is executing his transition mandate.” Mr Murungi also said that it was the responsibility of all Kenyans to ensure an acceptable, credible transition.
Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Mohammed said the media and the Mzalendo Kibunjia-led Cohesion Commission will play a key role in a clean, fair and peaceful contest.
The Waki Commission accused the media, particularly vernacular radio stations, of fuelling the 2007/8 bloodshed by broadcasting news that heightened ethnic tensions.
“The media must be neutral, objective, fair, restrained and change its mental state to create room for constructive debate and discourage political incitement to violence.
"But security agencies, political elite and the electoral commission are the elephant in the room,” said Mr Abdikadir, who chairs the House committee on Implementation of the Constitution.
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“We must be careful in the appointment of the next Inspector-General of police. The process should not be politicised.” The police are under scrutiny over their conduct in the 2007 elections.
The Waki Commission accused the force, then under Maj-Gen Hussein Ali, of failing to act on warnings of violence in Naivasha, Eldoret and Nandi.
The Administration Police under Mr Kinuthia Mbugua, who is retiring, was accused of being partisan. The officers were said to have taken part in the rigging of the election.
The Commission also had no kind words for the NSIS. Though it was praised for relaying accurate intelligence on the planning of violence, it was found to have taken sides in the political contest by favouring President Kibaki’s Party of National Unity.
The electoral commission is said to have rejected a plea by the spy agency to plant its officers as election agents. NSIS also sponsored a suspicious poll of presidential candidates and relayed the information to Mr Muthaura.
“The correspondence about the survey appeared to be arranged outside the Kenya Security Intelligence Management framework,” said the Waki report.
Given the growing suspicion in the coalition government, the sourcing, sharing and analysis of intelligence reports will be even more critical this time round. The National Cohesion Commission, created to promote national unity,will also be critical next year.
It has been at the forefront fighting hate speech and political incitement but the commissioners’ term has come to an end.
On Saturday, Mr Mohammed pledged to push for an extension of the term by a year so that it can continue its integration campaign during the election period. But he criticised the IEBC for delaying to submit rules which will guide the next election.
MPs protested on Thursday when the Attorney-General, on behalf of the commission, tabled bulky rules which must be debated and gazetted by Tuesday. Mr Mohammed indicated that Parliament might be forced to seek a one-month extension to debate and approve the rules.
The electoral commission has less than five months to register voters — including prisoners and Kenyans in the diaspora — inspect the register, conduct civic education, hire officials and deliver materials necessary for the polls.
Matters are complicated by the transition to a bi-cameral Parliament and the devolved government which will see Kenyans elect six representatives at once.
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