By-elections were about Raila and Uhuru

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By KWENDO OPANGA
Posted  Saturday, September 22  2012 at  17:56

IN SUMMARY

• Campaigning in Ndhiwa for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate Augustino Neto, Mr Odinga told the electorate that the rest of the country was waiting with bated breath to see whether his own people would humiliate him.
• What he meant is that if ODM lost the ballot in his backyard, his credibility as a national leader would be diminished.
• On the stumps in Kangema, Mr Kenyatta pleaded with the electorate to vote in Mr Tirus Ngahu of The National Alliance (TNA) to give the party the traction it needs as it prepares for the next General Election.

What do you make of the just-concluded parliamentary by-elections in Kajiado North, Kangema and Ndhiwa constituencies respectively in the Rift Valley, Central Kenya and Nyanza regions?

In my view, the three contests boiled down to a proxy war between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

And why is a great deal of significance being attached to the civic by-elections across the country which, usually, pass unnoticed?

Again, in my view, the contests boiled down to duels between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta. The two made it clear the polls would have a bearing on their bids for the presidency in the coming General Election.

Campaigning in Ndhiwa for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate Augustino Neto, Mr Odinga told the electorate that the rest of the country was waiting with bated breath to see whether his own people would humiliate him.

What he meant is that if ODM lost the ballot in his backyard, his credibility as a national leader would be diminished.

On the stumps in Kangema, Mr Kenyatta pleaded with the electorate to vote in Mr Tirus Ngahu of The National Alliance (TNA) to give the party the traction it needs as it prepares for the next General Election.

A win for his party, he was saying, would show that the region had TNA in its DNA and was ready to give him the strength to negotiate with competitors.

It should be remembered that although ODM did not run a candidate in Kangema, Mr Odinga campaigned in the constituency for Mr John Gathogo of Mkenya Solidarity party.

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This outfit is associated with former Mungiki leader allegedly turned church minister Maina Njenga who has no kind words for Mr Kenyatta. TNA may have been tempted to see the PM as a carpetbagger.

When the votes were in, counted and certified, Mr Kenyatta could neither hide his glee nor avoid a dig at Mr Odinga.

Hear him: “Today the people of Kenya have spoken, not through opinion polls but in real votes in real ballot boxes and their message is clear: they like TNA and are voting for the party whenever they can.”

He was not done. Here is another boast and another dig at Mr Odinga: “On the basis of today’s vote, TNA is set for victory in the 2013 elections.

This is the message politicians from the past should take note of: TNA is the party of the present and the future, and where we lead others can only try to follow.”

In a word, Mr Kenyatta was saying that the opinion polls, which have consistently portrayed Mr Odinga as the favourite to clinch the presidency and ODM the most popular party, have got it wrong.

Second, there is a shift to a younger generation of leaders who people TNA. Why is Mr Kenyatta this upbeat when TNA and ODM won Kangema and Ndhiwa respectively as expected?

Mr Kenyatta believes the results of the parliamentary by-elections gave him a leg up over Mr Odinga. Why? This is not only because TNA won two of the three seats on offer but, more importantly, also because the party won the Kajiado North seat.

Kajiado North is a microcosm of Kenya or little Kenya because here reside all the tribes and races of Kenya. Secondly, the civic results also read victory over Mr Odinga in the results of the civic by-elections.

TNA won a civic seat in Nyamira County which is regarded as ODM turf. It also won another seat in Uasin Gishu County which is in the backyard of Mr William Ruto, the presidential hopeful of the United Republican Party.

In Mr Kenyatta’s view, in winning these two civic seats and multi-ethnic Kajiado North, TNA showed it was competitive and acceptable across the land.

Another brickbat was hurled in the direction of ODM and Mr Odinga. It was crafted carefully to remind Kenyans of the violence of 2007 and 2008 and the foreboding heralding the next General Election:

“We are very clear – where there are peaceful, honest and fair nominations for candidates for public office, this is followed by peaceful, honest and fair elections.

"This is what TNA has ensured happened in Kangema and Kajiado North. It is now up to ODM to demonstrate they can also ensure a path to peaceful and fair nominations and elections – something they have failed to do so far.”

So, we voted for Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta in Ndhiwa, Kangema and Kajiado North respectively though they were not on the ballots. The six-piece suit is coming.

Kwendo Opanga is a media consultant opanga@diplomateastafrica.com