Uhuru, Ruto could miss 2012 polls

Eldoret North MP Wiliam Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta at a political rally in Embakasi grounds on March 5, 2011 FILE | NATION 

By KIPCHUMBA SOME ksome@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, March 12 2011 at 22:00

In Summary

• The threat of trials at The Hague for Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto is likely to permanently alter Kenya’s politics
• Pundits say even in the worst case scenario – where they are jailed by the ICC – they will still influence political direction from The Hague

The political landscape of two vote-rich regions could be altered significantly if two of the six post-election violence suspects go on trial at the International Criminal Court.

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As The Hague process rolls on, it remains to be seen whether President Kibaki’s heir apparent in Central Province, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, will continue wielding influence over their ethnic groups.

The Kikuyu, from whom Mr Kenyatta comes from, and Mr Ruto’s Kalenjin are the largest and third largest ethnic groups respectively, according to last year’s census results, hence they produce the highest number of voters.

The two have a tendency to vote as blocs, as demonstrated in last year’s referendum and the 2007 General Election. This makes them attractive to presidential candidates.

But the political future of the two groups remain uncertain following the naming of Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta by ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo as some of the people suspected of bearing the biggest responsibility for the 2008 violence.

But some pundits say the duo will continue wielding influence even as they battle to clear their names.

Yet others expect a fragmentation in their absence. Moi University law lecturer Onesmus Murkommen says the ICC case will likely bind the two groups in the short run, but acknowledges that they might disintegrate eventually.

Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri is of the opinion that the cases have had the effect of uniting the two peoples behind the two politicians.

“They are being embraced in areas where they had difficulties before and I think that will last for some time,” Mr Kiunjuri said.

Mr Murkommen concurs with Mr Kiunjuri in this respect, adding that the perception that they are being persecuted has raised their profile.

Even in the worst case scenario – where they are jailed – I believe they will still influence political directions from wherever they will be, he said.

Following his appointment to the key Finance docket and the post of deputy prime minister in the power-sharing arrangement, Mr Kenyatta has been perceived as President Kibaki’s heir apparent in the vote-rich Central Province, a view that has been reinforced by the Environment minister John Michuki.

Political observers say he is best placed among the current crop of politicians from Mt Kenya region — including the Embu, Mbeere and Meru, who have always been supportive of Mr Kibaki’s leadership — can rally around.

“It will be difficult for the Meru to rally around another person from Central Kenya apart from Uhuru,” says former Siakago MP and a close Uhuru ally, Justin Muturi. “In the event that the worst happens and he is taken to The Hague, then the Meru will probably go their separate way,” Mr Muturi said.

It can be argued that other leaders will rise to take their places, but the more critical question is whether their would-be successors can carry the weight the two currently do. Gichugu MP Martha Karua, a presidential hopeful, is Mr Kenyatta’s main challenger to the Central Kenya mantle so far.

But political observers contend that she does not enjoy wide support as the DPM.

There has also been talk that Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth will seek the presidency, although he has neither confirmed nor denied it.

The naming of Mr Ruto, arguably the most popular leader among the Kalenjin, and Mr Kosgey, a long serving politician, has dramatically changed the politics of the region.

Since the retirement of President Daniel arap Moi, Mr Ruto has emerged the de facto Kalenjin leader, currently commanding the support of 26 of the 33 MPs from the community.

Like Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto commands support and is seen as the only politician around whom the seven Kalenjin sub-tribes can rally.

Nominated MP Musa Sirma, an ally of Prime Minister Raila Odinga, says that in the absence of Mr Ruto, older politicians with established roots, for example the Moi family which has been fighting to regain political control of the Rift Valley, will step in to fill the void.

“The making of Ruto to the person he is today took several years. So, in the worst case scenario, where he is bogged down by The Hague cases, I see older politicians rising again to fill his position. Although they might not be popular, people are familiar with them,” Mr Sirma said.

It was reported in the media last week that former Baringo Central MP Gideon Moi had met with Mr Raila Odinga, a claim that was quickly denied by the younger Moi.

Gideon, Mr Ruto’s political nemesis in Rift Valley, is probably planning for a post-Ruto scenario.

Alternative

Roads minister Franklin Bett has indicated that he too will be seeking the presidency, a move read by political analysts as an attempt to strategically place himself in national politics with a view to offering himself as an alternative leader to Mr Ruto.

“I don’t think he is serious about it,” says Mr Murkomen. “Perhaps he hopes that, by doing so, he will put himself in a strategic position to capture the leadership of the Kipsigis, which he will use as a stepping stone to the leadership of the larger Kalenjin community.”

Mr Bett is the only minister from the Kalenjin who is still strongly allied to the Prime Minister, a man who has fallen out of favour with the community.
It remains to be seen what effect his close association with Mr Odinga will have on his presidential ambitions.

That aside, Mr Bett will receive a strong challenge from Belgut MP Charles Keter, another close ally of Mr Ruto.

Retain his seat

Then there is Information minister Samuel Poghisio, who weathered the ODM wave sweeping the Kalenjin land to retain his seat on Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-Kenya.

The Kacheliba MP was elected ODM-K chairman and has developed a close working relationship with Mr Ruto. Eloquent and charismatic, Mr Poghisio, who hails from the Pokot, the third smallest of the Kalenjin sub-tribes, enjoys the support of many amongst his community, although it remains to be seen how deep that support is.

So how does this scenario affect the political calculations for the 2012 campaigns?

Should these communities fragment, as Mr Sirma predicts, then it will be easier for “outside” contenders such as Mr Odinga to woo them.

“It will be about each community or region bargaining for their own interests. For example, Murang’a or Nandi will look at what a particular candidate will bring to them, as opposed to voting as a mass community.”