Showdown as ODM expels MPs

By Stephen Makabila and Vitalis KimutaiThe next few days will be a defining moment for the Orange Democratic Party as the protagonists plan what could be the final showdown in the rivalry between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.
With chances of reconciliation between the two almost nil, this week’s move by the party to expel Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto and Dujis MP Aden Duale is seen as a bid to severe ties with the pro-Ruto MPs, who have proved to be a pain in the flesh for the Prime Minister’s party.
But even as ODM flexes its muscles and the rebel MPs led by Ruto threaten to quit the party, it is becoming increasingly clear the political divorce would not be a quick settlement.

ODM leaders during happier days. Uncertain of their chances of winning in by-elections and considering the financial cost that goes with it, some MPs allied to William Ruto are not willing to quit the party, and would rather hold on up to the General Election. Photo: File/Standard

Uncertain of their chances of winning in by-elections and considering the financial cost that goes with it, some MPs allied to Ruto are not willing to quit the party, and would rather hold on up to the General Election.
"Ruto has been saying that since 2008. What is holding him back?" a minister allied to the Prime Minister asked.
"Let his lieutenants test the waters for him before he plunges into oblivion," Otieno Kajwang, said on Friday.
"Raila was in the same position as Ruto in 1996. I advised him to quit to run for Lang’ata seat, which he retained narrowly. But you cannot use the same template about 15 years later," Kajwang’ said.
The ODM move to expel two MPs allied to Ruto has seen the two MPs petition the Political Parties Tribunal. Whereas several MPs have openly been defying the party leadership, it is telling that the party did not seek to expel them en masse.
Going for the two MPs is therefore seen as a warning shot that indiscipline will not be tolerated.
Tourism Minister Najib Balala says the ODM leadership may be scheming to eject more rebel MPs, who are viewed as weak, but adds that such machinations would flop.
The Mvita MP said ODM is simply testing the waters and if they get their way, they would next target him and Ruto.
The latest ODM plot to kick out some rebel MPs is said to have been mooted at a meeting party leader Raila, his Deputy Musalia Mudavadi, several ministers, and MPs attended at Assistant Minister George Khaniri’s home in Hamisi constituency, last weekend.
"After our rally at Muliro Gardens, Kakamega, the leaders retreated to Khaniri’s home for a meeting. The agenda was how to build the party," said an ODM insider.
Speaking in Eldoret on Saturday, Mr Mudavadi said plans to suspend ODM rebel MPs was in order.
He told the victims to blame themselves instead. The deputy ODM leader said there were sufficient grounds for the party to push its case against rebel MPs. He dismissed Ruto’s claims that ODM had become dictatorial adding, as a leader gunning for president he should respect the rule of law.
Moi University law lecturer Mutakha Kangu, who chairs the Task Force on Civic Authorities Harmonisation, said, "Elections scare MPs, especially if they are not sure of retaining their seats."
Mutaha said the cost of running a by-election might be one that many MPs might not be prepared for now.
Then there is the second group of rebel MPs who he says are simply bent on rocking the boat from within. He says it is crucial for ODM to enforce discipline.
The party has been eager to have the rebel MPs out of the party rank and file so that it can rebuild its grassroots structures.
On the other hand however, the rebels are keen to keep holding party positions from the grassroots to the national level, which they will relinquish just before the general election. The ODM controversy on expulsions will be the second one to be handled by the tribunal, chaired by Peter Simani, after the ruling on Ford-Kenya leadership row last month.
Ruto allies are also seeking solace in party constitution, claiming their association with UDM does not violate the Political Parties Act because the party is an ODM affiliate.
They have been threatening to abandon ODM, with indications they were headed for UDM. The MPs have also been supporting UDM civic candidates against ODM in by-elections.
Ruto-allied MPs have since argued that by targeting them, ODM leadership was applying double standards in dealing with ‘errant’ members.
On Friday, some MPs allied to Ruto accused the party of flouting its own constitution in trying to expel the two MPs.
National deputy organising secretary of the party, Benjamin Langat, Ainamoi MP, said they would contest the move.
Kuresoi MP, Zakayo Cheruiyot, said the party top brass should embrace democratic ideals that made the party popular ahead of the 2007 General Election.