Prime Minister Raila Odinga, his deputy Musalia Mudavadi and Narc-K leader Martha Karua would be the greatest beneficiaries if the International Criminal Court was to prosecute the post-election violence suspects, US ambassador Michael Ranneberger told Washington in 2008.
In a diplomatic cable dated November 4, 2008 and released yesterday by Wikileaks, Ranneberger said Gichugu MP Karua was going to gain politically if Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was prosecuted. Ranneberger said Odinga and Mudavadi would benefit from the prosecution of Eldoret North MP William Ruto.
Though by the time he sent the cable the ICC had not officially taken up the cases, Ranneberger noted there was such a possibility in case Kenya failed to establish a local special tribunal as recommended by the Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence commonly referred to as the Waki Commission.
The cable was sent to Washington three weeks after the release of the Waki report and the disclosure that a secret envelope containing names of key suspects had been presented to Chief Mediator Kofi Annan for onward transmission to the ICC in case Kenya failed to establish a local tribunal. “Those calling for a go-slow approach (on Waki report) in both ODM and PNU accuse those seeking full implementation of the report as attempting to settle political scores against rivals who are potentially implicated in post-election violence,” said Ranneberger.“There may be some element of truth in these charges — certainly Martha Karua's 2012 presidential bid would be helped if Uhuru Kenyatta were to face trial. Likewise, Odinga (and Mudavadi) would benefit from a potential trial of William Ruto — a potential rival whose future would be severely diminished,” added the ambassador.
ICC judges on Tuesday summoned Uhuru, Ruto, Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, head of Public Service Francis Muthaura, former Police Commissioner Hussein Ali and Kass FM journalist Joshua arap Sang to appear at the Hague on April 7. Though the six have not been formally charged, the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber has ruled that they have a case to answer.
In the cable, Ranneberger added that gaining political mileage was not the only reason some politicians were pushing for the full implementation of the Waki report and the prosecution of the top suspects. “But it stretches the truth to suggest that support for implementation is solely motivated by these short-term political considerations. Kibaki, in his last term, does not need to worry about future political rivals,” explained Ranneberger. “He (Kibaki) and Odinga seem to be motivated by the need to address post-election violence to move the country forward. For her part, Martha Karua has been a proponent of ending Kenya’s culture of impunity since her days leading the fight for multi-party democracy in the 1990s,” the US envoy added.
Ranneberger said though Kibaki and Raila were championing the full implementation of the Waki report, they faced difficulties because some MPs allied to both PNU and ODM were opposed to the report’s implementation. “Indications are that Odinga will have a hard time bringing his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) to support his call for full implementation of the report,” Ranneberger said.
He added that PNU was yet to come to a unified position on implementation. Some key PNU figures such as Karua, who by then was the Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister, had called for full implementation while others had taken a more cautious approach.
Ranneberger said that PNU Central Province coordinator and MP for Kinangop David Ngugi had met embassy officials and revealed that PNU regional leaders had agreed that the report be implemented, but that it must be handled cautiously because of the inflammatory nature of the charges likely to be levelled against Kikuyu leaders. “Ngugi also noted that PNU feels obliged to protect Uhuru Kenyatta, who many see as the next leader of the GEMA (the ethnic Kikuyu, Embu, and Meru) political grouping and a future president of Kenya,” Ranneberger told Washington.
Though Ranneberger’s cable was sent in November 2008 and the identities of the Ocampo Six were made public in December last year, the suspects and their allies have in recent weeks intensified their anti-ICC campaign.
The suspects and their allies have been addressing rallies where they have been speaking out against the ICC process and claiming that it was being pushed by some of their political rivals who hoped to gain from their prosecution.
Apart from expressing support for a local process the suspects and their allies have been urging the public to sign a petition which is expected to be presented to the UN Security Council as proof that majority of Kenyans were opposed to the ICC process.
Rift Valley MPs allied to Ruto and those from Central Kenya allied to Uhuru have accused Raila of pushing for the prosecution of the Ocampo Six as a way of fixing Uhuru and Ruto politically.
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