Sunday, March 27, 2011

Is Raila losing grip on the Orange party?

File | NATION Prime Minister Raila Odinga (centre) conducted on a tour of the scene of the Wagalla massacre in Wajir by Northern Kenya minister  Mohamed Elmi (left). Of the six ODM MPs from the region, three – Mr Elmi (Wajir East), Farah Maalim (Lagdera) and Ibrahim Abdi (Mandera East) — are strongly associated with the PM.
File | NATION Prime Minister Raila Odinga (centre) conducted on a tour of the scene of the Wagalla massacre in Wajir by Northern Kenya minister Mohamed Elmi (left). Of the six ODM MPs from the region, three – Mr Elmi (Wajir East), Farah Maalim (Lagdera) and Ibrahim Abdi (Mandera East) — are strongly associated with the PM.
By Kipchumba Some ksome@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted  Saturday, March 26 2011 at 22:00
In Summary
  • Differences with MPs over the handling of ODM’s Hague suspects and his apparently waning support in party strongholds point to a developing crisis for the Prime Minister

Is Prime Minister Raila Odinga losing grip of the Orange party? That has been the question in the minds of political analysts and many other Kenyans following the events of the past week.
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MPs allied to Mr Odinga differed openly over his stated position over Kenya’s case at the International Criminal Court.
During the ODM national executive council and parliamentary group meeting last Thursday, MPs agreed to sponsor a Bill to set up a local tribunal to try post-election violence suspects and hire lawyers for party members who have cases.
ODM’s parliamentary secretary Ababu Namwaba made the announcement after the meeting chaired by Mr Odinga.
But, hours after Mr Namwamba’s announcement, ODM secretary-general Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o issued a press statement denouncing the PG’s position.
He said: “The ODM party organs have not discussed or agreed to any legal aid to any of the Ocampo Six. Any statement attributed to the party in that regard is the personal view of the exponent and not the party.”
Three of the six Kenyans targeted by the ICC — suspended Higher Education minister William Ruto (Eldoret North), his Tinderet counterpart Henry Kosgey and radio presenter Joshua Sang — are associated with the party. Mr Ruto and Mr Sang have since rejected the party’s offer for legal aid while Mr Kosgey has not commented on the issue.
That Mr Odinga seems to endorse Prof Nyongo’s position on ICC is what has raised questions on whether ODM and the Prime Minister are in a new leadership crisis after the fallout with Rift Valley MPs allied to Mr Ruto.
Interviews with multiple sources indicated the proposals to assist the Ocampo Six were made by MPs sympathetic to the Rift Valley group.
Among those who spoke in favour of the move were Water minister Charity Ngilu, East African Community minister Amason Kingi and Nominated MP Musa Sirma.
Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, who attended the meeting, said assisting the Ocampo suspects was merely a suggestion.
“It was never adopted at the PG. I think some members made the announcement to fulfil their personal wishes,” he said.
Although Mr Gumbo played down the divisions as mere “divergent opinions,” it raises the possibility that ODM might be staring at another internal split. Already, more than 30 MPs are in the Ruto camp.
Rangwe MP Martin Ogindo says the decision to help the Ocampo suspects has to do with the party’s strategy for the 2012 elections.
Endear yourself
“That is not a secret. Parties are about forming governments and to do that you need votes, and to get votes you need to endear yourself to voters,” he said.
Mr Ogindo said the party meant well with the offer. “People only appreciate you if you are sensitive to their plight and this is a deliberate effort to express sensitivity to other ODM members who have been fingered for the violence.”
Given the scope of ODM’s new proposals, Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University contends the party is trying to recapture the initiative of rescuing the Ocampo Six from their PNU rivals, especially at a time when opinion polls indicate that the percentage of Kenyans in favour of The Hague option is falling.
“If ODM really sticks to its promise to stand by their men and is successful in pushing a Bill for the establishment of a local tribunal, then it will steal the thunder from PNU. It can always say, look, we supported them all along all the time,” he said.
The Kalenjin rebellion against Mr Odinga is the most prominent because of the very public altercations between the PM and Mr Ruto, the number of MPs involved and the political implications. But the rebellion against Mr Odinga seems to have gone beyond the Rift Valley.

In the Coast Province, Mr Odinga is no longer on talking terms — politically — with Tourism minister and Pentagon member Najib Balala, one of the first people to endorse his presidency bid in 2007.

The Mvita MP has accused the PM of “dictatorial tendencies and running the party like a private property”.
Although he has been ambivalent about his next move, the minister has sometimes been associated with Mr Ruto’s camp. He stated quite memorably during a fund-raiser for the Mau forest evictees in 2009 that a new political order had been established and it excluded Mr Odinga.
Kisauni MP Ali Hassan Joho, Mr Balala’s nemesis in the Coast — has repeatedly denied links to the Ruto camp.
In North Eastern Province, Dujis MP Aden Dualle has become the face of rebellion against Mr Odinga.
“It is not personal; he has never delivered on any of the promises he made to Muslims and the people of North Eastern,” the MP said of the chilly relations with his party boss.
Of the six ODM MPs from the region, three — Northern Province Development minister Mohamed Elmi (Wajir East), Farah Maalim (Lagdera) and Ibrahim Abdi (Mandera East) — are strongly associated with Mr Odinga.
Wajir West’s Hussein Gabbow has opted for the middle ground.
“I stand for what is right for this country, irrespective of party positions,” he said.
Political rally
He is, however, critical of the manner in which Mr Odinga has responded to the rebellion against him. He cited a case a month ago, during a political rally in Moyale town, when Mr Odinga attacked area MP and Livestock assistant minister Mohamud Ali, who apparently was seated on the dais with him, by likening him to a housefly fattening on milk cream while his constituents starved.
“As a leader you do not talk about your juniors like that, more so not in front of their constituents. That kind of talk is what is earning the PM more enemies than friends. That kind of talk is the one disintegrating the party. The Prime Minister is a man of integrity and should go slow on abuses,” he said.
A week after the meeting, Mr Ruto led a group of more than 20 MPs to Moyale to “condole” with Mr Ali. During that meeting the other ODM MP from Eastern Province Chachu Ganya of North Horr announced that he no longer supported Mr Odinga.
Apart from his Luo Nyanza stronghold, Mr Odinga’s other key support base that has remained steadfast is Western. ODM commands 18 of the 24 constituencies in the region.
But the recent alliance between Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa (Saboti) Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto is bound to alter the political matrix there.
Associates of the latter two say Mr Wamalwa would be their compromise presidential candidate in 2012 should the ICC cases prevent them from running.
Others have their doubts. “Eugene is a long shot. He does not even have the clout to unite the whole of Western,” said Prof Kabaji.
Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi has been under pressure from his lieutenants in Western to stop playing second fiddle to Mr Odinga and run in 2012. And he stated last year that his name will be on the ballot. If he is indeed serious about giving the presidency a shot, he is playing his cards very close to the chest.
Another likely 2012 battleground between Mr Odinga and his opponents is in the Maasai counties. Currently, ODM has three of the six MPs from the area, all firmly allied to Mr Odinga. But the direction Maasai politics will take is quite difficult to predict now.
But how both sides of the political divide will handle the emotive land issues will largely determine the direction it will go. The Maasai have long mourned the loss of what they consider their ancestral lands to the high and mighty.

Heritage minister William ole Ntimama has made this issue the agenda of his time in politics and styled himself the defender of Maasai land rights. And so, when the issue of Mau reclamation drvie came up, he supported it wholeheartedly, much to the chagrin of Mr Ruto and his allies.

However, after nearly three decades at the helm, Mr Ntimama is slowly losing grip of the politics of the region. This is widely expected to be his last term in Parliament.
Mr Ruto was seen to make inroads in region during last year’s constitutional referendum campaigns. A sizeable number of Maasai voted against the constitution, even though Mr Ntimama was supporting it.
It is also instructive that Martin ole Kamwaro, who unsuccessfully challenged Mr Ntimama for the Narok South seat in the 2007 General Election, is the secretary-general of the United Democratic Movement, the party Mr Ruto’s associates intend to decamp to in the run up to the 2012 elections.
Another area of great interest to the competing sides is the Kisii region, whose six out the 10 MPs come from ODM and its affiliate parties. In recent times the Ruto-Uhuru alliance has stepped up their political activities there.
Although the current MPs seem to rally behind Mr Odinga, former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara remains a high profile figure who fell out with the PM.
While conceding that Mr Odinga has lost support in certain areas, despite all these challenges, Mr Odinga’s adviser, Mr Salim Lone, maintains he still enjoys huge grassroots support.
“The PM has lost some support from a few political leaders and constituencies. But, overall, the PM’s stands have enhanced his standing as a committed leader able to take tough decisions on very difficult issues,” he said.

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