How ICC will shape 2012

By Oscar ObonyoThe Ocampo Six come up before Pre-Trial judges at The Hague in just three weeks time in what promises to be a game-changer in next year’s presidential poll.
The summonses that have come sooner than anticipated have sent panic among the political class and ignited a series of counter-strategies.
Political bigwigs allied to PNU, including Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and suspended Higher Education minister William Ruto, who are among the six, are said to have immediately embarked on a series of consultations some of them going deep into the night. Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s ODM party has called for a meeting this Tuesday to weigh its standing on the latest developments and chart a new way forward.

President Kibaki is received by Cardinal John Njue at Gusii Stadium in Kisii where he attended the centenary celebrations of the Catholic Church in Gusii land, on Saturday. Picture: Titus Munala/Standard

The two coalition partners ODM and PNU particularly are toying with a number of scenarios and the questions they are asking themselves include: What if Uhuru and Ruto are cleared of all the charges? What if one of them is cleared? What if both of them eventually have to face charges on the crimes against humanity?
The Standard On Sunday has established the push by the forces coalescing around Uhuru and Ruto subscribe to the notion that "whoever will be President is unknown but the person that will not be is known" indicating their determination to lock Raila out of the presidency in next year’s political race.
Political capitalBut some political analysts believe the anti-Raila push is a self-destructive one that might have pushed the country to the current quagmire.
According to them, campaigns and politicking will now take two distinct forms. Those sympathetic to the ‘Ocampo Six’, mainly from PNU, are expected to ethnicise the campaigns while the ODM wing will throw in everything to stop this trend.
"The only way to make political capital out of the situation involving Uhuru and Ruto is to appeal for sympathy votes by whipping up tribal emotions. This will be the trend towards the ballot as the two leaders strive to stay united or plan to turn over their crowds to another beneficiary," says Prof Amukowa Anangwe, a political science lecturer at the University of Dodoma.
On the flipside, the former Cabinet minister observes ethnicity is and will be the first and foremost enemy Number One to Raila. This, he explains, is because the ethnic card will isolate the PM and to fight back ODM will make the anti-"KKK" alliance their evensong.
"This probably explains why he is fighting tribalism and in particular the KKK Alliance with gusto, alongside impunity," says Anangwe.
However, Macharia Munene, professor of History and International relations at United States International University (USIU-Kenya), observes that the latest developments could derail the political careers of Uhuru and Ruto.
So much baggage"If Uhuru and Ruto are effectively removed from the picture, this reduces competition especially for Raila and Kalonzo. It also gives room for the rise of new players."
Anangwe adds that even if finally cleared, they already carry so much baggage "which will obviously work against their personal 2012 campaigns".
Nonetheless, Anangwe observes, the ICC suspects will be around to wreck political havoc against political rivals.
"It is a bit dicey and nobody can ignore them, yet at the same time their political potency has been greatly weakened," concludes the political scientist.
And contrary to the now popular view that ODM wants the Ocampo Six out of the way to have a field day in the campaigns, The Standard On Sunday has established that the PM’s camp, in fact quietly hopes for a situation where Uhuru and Ruto are present and politically active during next year’s election campaigns.
Experts argue that such a scenario would give the Premier a better fighting chance as well as the realistic hope of reaping from a possible falling out in the congested PNU house. On the contrary, the absence of the two could easily push their supporters elsewhere, mostly towards the Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, who is closely associated to both politicians and has fought tooth and nail to have Kenya’s situation at the ICC deferred.
The best scenario for Kalonzo, though, would be if both Ruto and Uhuru were behind bars as the presence of either would pose a major challenge to him.
Playing his cards well
"Kalonzo may not necessarily like the two fellows, but he appears to me to be playing his cards very carefully and well. What is more, he has obliged, without questioning, the President’s shuttle diplomacy assignment," says Anangwe.
Separately Munene warns that if Uhuru and Ruto succeed to convincing the electorate that they were made the sacrificial lambs of the chaotic 2007 polls, "they could become political martyrs of sorts and their word as to how they should vote, could be regarded as law by some."
Preferred aspirantsThe historian recalls the instance of first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga who, when he was officially not in the picture when the late President Jomo Kenyatta placed him under house arrest, he easily anointed parliamentary aspirants simply by pointing out his preferred candidates.
Similarly, former Gatanga MP David Murathe observes that siege mentality is bound to politically strengthen Uhuru and Ruto as well as close ties between their respective communities. Anybody presenting dissenting views, he observes, could be seen as a spoiler.
Dr Adams Oloo of University of Nairobi’s political science and government department attributes the current hiccup in Government to the President’s decision to support the presidential bid of another aspirant other than that of his co-principal, Raila.
With the President keen on shaping his own succession politics and the PM trying to replace the incumbent, Oloo fears the battle ahead is bound to be bruisy.
Indeed Oloo’s sentiments are vivified by a letter to the ICC by Kenya’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Macharia Kamau, in which the President describes Ruto and Uhuru as "presidential front runners".
According to Munyori Buku, Communications Director in the office Deputy Prime Minister and Finance ministry, Uhuru is "finally at ease". Ocampo, says Buku, has given him the best opportunity to give his side of the story, which the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights and the Phillip Waki-led probe committee ignored.
Gichugu MP Martha Karua has upset the political equation in Central Kenya as she has made it clear she will run for the presidency next year. The straight speaking former minister for Justice has been categorical that MPs are to blame over ICC because they squandered their chances for a local tribunal.
Already the Uhuru-Ruto ties have excited their supporters. Some have been trying to draw a parallel between the "Kapenguria Six" and the "Ocampo Six". Much as the parallel is hugely uneven and an affront at the country’s independence heroes, the comparison is a demonstration of how the ICC case will be politicised.
If either Uhuru or Ruto is cleared and the other is indicted, a tough political battle pitting Kalonzo against the younger politician is likely to ensue.
But politics is dynamic game and other parameters may arise and totally alter the political landscape.