Bumpy road preceded Cabinet deal

By  MURITHI MUTIGA mmutiga@ke.nationmedia.comPosted Friday, March 4 2011 at 22:00

In Summary

• Principals often gave different versions of their private talks, says envoy

Details of the tense talks that led to the formation of the coalition Cabinet are laid bare in a US embassy dispatch.

President Kibaki is portrayed as a beleaguered politician under pressure from allies not to bow to coalition partner ODM’s demands.

A picture also emerges of Prime Minister Raila Odinga as a party leader eager to cut a deal with his rival.

But he is also said to be distrustful of Mr Kibaki and determined to get key ministries for his party to deliver on demands of people the ambassador describes as ODM “hardliners.”

The cable, dated April 2008, tells of the difficult negotiations between Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga in the weeks following the signing of the National Accord on February 28, that year.

The two principals often offered contradictory versions of their private discussions, says ambassador Michael Ranneberger.

“Kibaki and Odinga held a one-on-one meeting on April 3 that has become a source of contention.

“Kibaki insists that at the meeting Odinga accepted Kibaki’s proposed list of ministries (without three that were still contentious).

“Odinga maintains that they agreed on the number of 40 ministries, but that he never agreed to Kibaki’s list and Odinga says Kibaki agreed at that meeting to cede Local Government.

“It is possible that there was a genuine misunderstanding, but it is more probable that either or both of them changed their minds after the meeting. Kibaki and Odinga met again on April 6 but failed to reach an agreement.”

The differences were a demand by ODM that President Kibaki should share out some of the key ministries that he had unilaterally filled at the height of the crisis. Mr Odinga wanted at least two infrastructure ministries (Energy and Transport) and at least one policy coordination ministry (Foreign Affairs, Justice and Constitutional Affairs, or Local Government).

President Kibaki was unwilling to offer any of those and, according to the US envoy’s analysis, his rejection was based on pressure from key members of his court.

“Both men are buffeted by hardliners in their camps.

“Uhuru Kenyatta, who currently holds Local Government and is a presidential aspirant, does not want to give up this powerful ministry. Kenyatta is important to the cohesion of Kibaki’s Party of National Unity.

“Martha Karua, who is also a presidential aspirant and who was Kibaki’s lead negotiator in the Annan-led talks, holds Justice and Constitutional Affairs and does not want to relinquish it. Kibaki sees Foreign Affairs as his personal domain.”

Mr Kibaki eventually conceded the Local Government ministry post to which Mr Odinga appointed his key ally, Musalia Mudavadi. The cable identifies Mr William Ruto as the key hardliner in ODM.

It says Mr Ruto feels threatened by the government’s allegations that he was involved in organising and supporting the Rift Valley violence which followed the election. Mr Ranneberger effectively says he can press Mr Odinga to agree to a deal if Mr Kibaki cedes ground.

“I stressed to Kibaki that the US would use its full weight to ensure that Odinga does not make further demands, if Kibaki gives Odinga final two to three ministries he wants.

“I told Kibaki that Odinga had told me he is ready to do the deal immediately if he gets those ministries.

“He needs the face-saving, I argued, and if Kibaki gives it, the US will hold Odinga to his promise to do the deal.”

Agree to a deal

The cable is also significant for its analysis of the complex relationship between Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga. Mr Kibaki is described as both hopeful that Mr Odinga would agree to a deal and distrustful of his motives and solidity of character.

“I (the ambassador) pressed hard, and discussed the details, including the ministries at play and possible trade-offs. Kibaki repeatedly insisted that he has offered all that he can.

“He said the problem was that Odinga keeps changing his conditions and demands for an agreement (moving the goal posts, though he did not use that expression).

“Kibaki sounded patient and exasperated at the same time. ‘His behaviour has put me in an impossible position,’ Kibaki said. ‘I do not want to create another crisis by being the one who makes this deal not succeed.’

“Kibaki went on to say that ‘I’ve reached a point where I cannot change, because if I do I will look useless to my people. I will lose all my credibility.”