The first two, Higher Education minister William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, appear to be in the same boat, since they will have to look for tickets outside ODM and PNU to gun for the presidency. And they are in the unenviable position of having to compete for attention with the politics of implementing the new Constitution, and the dust of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC’s) pursuit of 2007-08 post-election violence suspects.
As a party, PNU is a grouping of rebellious parties, and is a shell of its former glory. ODM, on the other hand, is seeking to rebuild, with most Rift Valley MPs who support Ruto set to join a new party, after falling out with Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Ruto’s most vocal allies, Belgut MP Charles Keter and his Cherangany counterpart Joshua Kutuny say he would fare better in a totally new outfit.
“We don’t have a future in ODM. There are very clear signs that it would only take a fool to continue clinging there,” said Keter.
But PNU chairman and Internal Security minister Prof George Saitoti, is also expected to go through turbulence, before he finally clinches a ticket to run for the presidency.
The party he currently chairs, PNU, is nothing more than a shell, as its constituent parties drift away from each other as 2012 nears.
Ruto is aware he has little chance of running on an ODM ticket come 2012, without waging an all-out war on the PM Raila to edge him out as party leader.
That possibility is not on the scorecard for observers, since its effect may kill the party altogether. The infighting in ODM between Raila and Ruto has already weakened the party and, as our sister paper, The Standard on Sunday reported yesterday, the party’s leadership is already grappling with how best to rebuild the outfit after a string of losses in recent by-elections.
During his campaigns against the new Constitution, Ruto has made it clear that he would not support Raila in 2012, and is on his way out of ODM.
His close allies confirmed to the The Standard that the Minister is set to vie for the presidency in 2012 on a totally different party from ODM.
Belgut MP Charles Keter was outright and said: “We don’t have a future in ODM. There are very clear signs that it would only take a fool to continue clinging there.”
Keter said the branding of ODM MPs with divergent views on issues as ‘rebels’ by some party leaders was a manifestation that their differences had sunk beyond salvage.
“Anyang Nyong’o and the rest have labeled us as rebels. You need not be told anything else to know that our stay there (in ODM) is no longer tenable,” he said.
Nyong’o is also a target for removal from party leadership, after ODM’s losses in the by-elections was blamed on his leadership style as the party’s secretary general.
But the jury is still out on whether it is actually Nyong’o’s fault, or the trend is due to a general decline in the party’s grassroots connection, though pollsters still rate it as the number one political outfit in the country.
Uhuru also finds himself in a similar situation within the PNU alliance of parties, as there is no hope of them all agreeing to remain united and offering Uhuru a ticket to State House.
Despite being the chairman of Kanu, he could also be losing control over the party, and his confidants are urging him to concentrate strengthen the independence party, and ignore the PNU coalition wrangles.
President Kibaki’s PNU was hurriedly cobbled up ahead of the infamous 2007 General Election, primary as a vehicle for his re-election.
The party is now wobbling towards disintegration as Uhuru’s allies urge him to quickly jump out of the sinking ship.
“Uhuru should completely forget this coalition, and concentrate on his party Kanu, on whose ticket he should contest the next elections,” said Assistant Minister Kareke Mbiuki.
The Nithi MP argued that PNU ‘belongs’ to Saitoti who also has presidential ambitions, and he cannot therefore give room for Uhuru to take over the coalition.
He asked Uhuru to follow the example of Gichugu MP Martha Karua, whose party, Narc-Kenya has performed well after ditching PNU.
Kanu organising secretary Justin Muturi also told the Finance Minister that the state of confusion in PNU should be an indicator that he should now concentrate on strengthening his party.
“This, more than before, is the time for him to make sure his party is vibrant, if he intends to contest (the presidency) in the next elections,” said Muturi.
But the advice comes when Kanu has issued an ultimatum to its leaders who shifted their allegiance to other political parties, to relinquish their positions.
The party’s national vice chairman Gideon Moi, and secretary general Nick Salat said Kanu was in process of strategising for the 2012 General Election, and wanted to get rid of ‘excess baggage.’
In their so-called ‘Kaptebengwet declaration’, the party officials declared that Kanu will field a presidential candidate in 2012.
Even if Uhuru opts out of PNU, focus will still be on Saitoti, since there are signs he will have to fight for the presidential ticket even though he is the chairman.
PNU vice chairmen, Dr Wekesa and George Nyamweya, have already demanded an emergency National Executive Council meeting to dump Saitoti as chairman.
Nyamweya claims Saitoti is a liability who never makes any contribution to the party “even through press interviews”.
The Internal Security minister will also have to fight it out with leaders like Kiraitu Murungi and Dr Noah Wekesa for the control of PNU, whose equally poor performance in the recent by-elections sparked demands for the resignation of Saitoti and Kiraitu from the leadership.
Former Justice Minister Martha Karua’s Narc Kenya was the first party to create distance between itself and Kibaki’s PNU.
Narc Kenya made its mark, when it won two parliamentary seats in by elections last month.
Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has hinted of a possible alliance involving ODM Kenya, PNU and Kanu.
He said the parties should prepare for a major alliance if they have to win in 2012.
Kalonzo’s formula also creates more confusion over whom the proposed alliance will back for the presidency.
The VP’s statement illustrates the task ahead for those who are serious about staging a formidable battle for the presidency.
Even though most presidential hopefuls are expected to have a busy schedule before finally clinching a ticket, it is the Higher Education Minister whose departure from his current party will have the biggest impact.
Ruto’s departure will leave ODM weaker in the vast Rift Valley, and leave Raila fumbling for a winning formula for the 2012 presidential election.
Ruto is expected to leave the party with dozens of MPs and their millions of voters who voted for Raila to the last man in the disputed 2007 presidential poll that ended in violence.
The Eldoret North MP’s confidants also say the minister has struck deals with leaders from other provinces, including North Eastern and Coast to join the same party.
Ruto campaigned against ODM for the party’s former Treasurer Omingo Magara in the North Mugirango by-election, and led a strong opposition against the referendum, helping the ‘No’ garner some three million votes.
Ruto was also quoted as saying that the referendum was “a rehearsal for 2012”.
During the referendum, Ruto led the ‘No’ team to play the opposite of Raila who was part of the ‘Yes’ team led by the PM and President Kibaki, but only campaigned in the final weeks after taking time off to recover from an operation.
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