Is History Repeating Itself With Jubilee?

THURSDAY, APRIL 25, 2013 - 00:00 -- BY WYCLIFFE MUGA

If you look at the early-1960s photos or video clips featuring our founding President Jomo Kenyatta, one thing you immediately notice is that in very many of them, the same two men stand on either side of him: the Vice President, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and the Cabinet minister (and Kanu secretary general) Tom Mboya.

 Whether they were on the podium together, at a political rally at Kamkunji; or riding in the ceremonial Land Rover into a stadium during some national event; these three top politicians very often shared the limelight.

 And though we may now look on all this as being of merely historical interest, back then, these images of the ‘Big Three’ had an ominous significance for many tribal communities in Kenya: they were the symbol of the much-dreaded Kikuyu-Luo political dominance, which most of the other tribes in Kenya had united to oppose in the first ever general election. These other tribes may have failed to block what they saw as a Kikuyu-Luo hegemonic agenda; but they certainly tried their best.

 It may seem strange now that the Luo and Kikuyu were ever considered to be “the two big tribes” while all the other tribes were considered "small".

This is especially so given that while Kikuyus are still the single most populous tribe, Luos are currently not second or third, but actually fourth – their numbers having been overtaken first by the Luhyias and then by the Kalenjin in the censuses conducted over the past few decades.

 So why did the other tribes feel intimidated by the Kikuyu and the Luo. A major part of it, no doubt is that the elites of the other tribes felt that they were already at a distinct disadvantage, in anything that placed them in competition with the elite of those two "big tribes". Of the very small elite of university graduates of that time, the greater number were either Kikuyu or Luo.

 And it also helped that there was no historical rivalry - much less enmity - between the Luo and the Kikuyu at the dawn of independence.

 As a result, these two tribes were particularly well-suited to jointly "take over" from the departing colonialists; and could easily do so without involving very many from outside these two tribes.

 Grabbing the opportunities left open by departing colonialists was the very definition of 'getting ahead' in those days. Broadly speaking, it involved either getting part (or all) of a former 'settler' large scale farm; or getting a 'big job' in government or a state corporation, if you qualified for one.

 And so when the other tribes looked at Kenyatta and Odinga and Mboya, they did not see heroes who had struggled mightily to bring independence.

Rather they saw the top structure of a political hegemony which spelled doom for their own aspirations: between the Kikuyus and the Luos, they could easily take all the good jobs, and all the farms.

 Fifty years later, we find much the same situation. Apparently, the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin who are just two of what we nowadays call “the five big tribes” (the other three are the Luhyia, Luo and Kamba) managed to pull a fast one on virtually all of the rest of the country in the recent general election.

 They supposedly won the presidency for their Jubilee Alliance by managing, first, an unprecedented feat of voter registration in Central Kenya and the Rift Valley; and then coming out to support their candidate in a miracle of voter turnout.

 This was despite the fact that the coastal region and the Kisii community, were both overwhelmingly in favour of the rival Coalition for Reform and Democracy alongside those other three big tribes, giving Cord a clear plurality in overall national support.

 The current scenario bears many similarities to what happened in 1964, as the population of the Luo and Kikuyu combined, was certainly not 50 per cent of the total Kenyan population back then. Yet – with a little help from the Kamba and the Kisii – they somehow managed to ascend to power.

 And our current situation is given uncompromising clarity in that there exists a formal pre-election pact, which specifies how the top jobs are to be shared "right down the middle" between President Uhuru's TNA party, and Deputy President William Ruto's URP.

 Next week I will delve into the reasons why the Jubilee, like the Kikuyu-Luo alliance of the early 1960s, may well prove to be very fragile and short-lived.