By Onyango Oloo
The year 2007 was an election year in Kenya. Never before had there been such hope and aura of confidence amongst the Luo people.
One of our own was headed to State House. The air of excitement was comparable only to the year 1992, also an election year.
The 1992 election was a disappointment. Our only beacon of hope had not only failed to clinch the presidency, he had performed disastrously.
Outgunned and outpaced, Jaramogi was beaten to a poor fourth behind Daniel arap Moi, Kenneth Matiba and Mwai Kibaki. The Luo voted him to a man.
We had learnt our lessons and in 1997, the excitement was measured. Come 2002, we were happy, we had avenged Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s defeat by voting a winning candidate; but he was not one of us.
Come 2007, Raila Odinga had rallied the support of the populous Rift Valley Province and was faring well in opinion polls against the incumbent Kibaki. We were sure to win; areas that had hitherto not voted with the Luos had shown they were willing to do business.
Nothing could stop our grand march to State House. Then something went wrong, the numbers just failed to add up. Kibaki won. Raila refused to accept defeat, refused to go to court, setting the country aflame. The rest is history.
Once again Raila is making a stab at the presidency and the Luo are being rallied to vote one of their own. Anybody of contra opinion or dares oppose the tribe’s candidate is a traitor. This is our time, our hope and our dream. Our only chance to throw out the yoke of poverty and start the march to prosperity and opulence.
We are also told, the march will not commence until and unless we win the presidency, and we shall only commence this march upon Raila, and not Onyango Oloo, Raphael Tuju or James Orengo winning the presidency. Any other win is fake and not truly Luo. Or so we hear.
Fate is sealed
Until recently, nothing was stopping ‘Agwambo’ from winning the coveted trophy. After all, two of the leading presidential candidates Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto had been entangled with the International Criminal Court (ICC). Their fate was sealed.
Kalonzo Musyoka was considered weak against Raila’s campaign juggernaut. Then again, something went wrong, very wrong. The ICC confirmed that nothing, not even the confirmation of the charges against the two would bar them from the contest. Coupled with Raila’s steady descent in opinion polls, the numbers may just refuse to add up yet again as they did in 2007 and 1992.
It is thus imperative that the Luo start thinking and voting like the rest of Kenyans. No one has exclusivity, save for messianic descent, to save the community from its economic and social afflictions.
In 1992, the Kikuyu had both Matiba and Kibaki. In 2002 they had Kibaki and Uhuru and come next year they already have not less than five candidates from different parties.
The rest of the country has several candidates. They are at peace with their campaigns, except in Luoland where hooligans break up meet-the-people tours.
I say, Luo Nyanza has slightly over one million votes against Gema’s estimated voting strength of 4.5 million votes, the Kalenjin and Kamba had slightly over a million votes each, the Kisii about 600,000, and Luhyas above 1.4 million among others.
A Raila presidency could as well be a pipe dream. This added to the fact that the Constitution requires 50 per cent plus one vote to clinch the presidency in the first round, failing which the best two would compete in a simple majority basis.
And what if Raila does not hack it then?
It is high time the Luo integrate politically with the rest of Kenya. In other words a Raila, Uhuru or Ruto presidency should have the Luo as senior members of their administration. But nobody will appoint you to high political office if you do not support their political cause. But that’s a fallacy.
Hedging our bets
Consider this. Other Kenyan communities are already strategically placed should Raila, Uhuru, Ruto or Kalonzo win. For the Kikuyu, the likes of Peter Kuguru, Njenga Karume, Joe Wanjui, and Stanley Githunguri are watching brief in Raila’s camp. The rest remain with Uhuru. Luos are stacked with 'Agwambo'. What if he fails as he has done before?
The year 2007 was an election year in Kenya. Never before had there been such hope and aura of confidence amongst the Luo people.
One of our own was headed to State House. The air of excitement was comparable only to the year 1992, also an election year.
The 1992 election was a disappointment. Our only beacon of hope had not only failed to clinch the presidency, he had performed disastrously.
Outgunned and outpaced, Jaramogi was beaten to a poor fourth behind Daniel arap Moi, Kenneth Matiba and Mwai Kibaki. The Luo voted him to a man.
We had learnt our lessons and in 1997, the excitement was measured. Come 2002, we were happy, we had avenged Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s defeat by voting a winning candidate; but he was not one of us.
Come 2007, Raila Odinga had rallied the support of the populous Rift Valley Province and was faring well in opinion polls against the incumbent Kibaki. We were sure to win; areas that had hitherto not voted with the Luos had shown they were willing to do business.
Nothing could stop our grand march to State House. Then something went wrong, the numbers just failed to add up. Kibaki won. Raila refused to accept defeat, refused to go to court, setting the country aflame. The rest is history.
Once again Raila is making a stab at the presidency and the Luo are being rallied to vote one of their own. Anybody of contra opinion or dares oppose the tribe’s candidate is a traitor. This is our time, our hope and our dream. Our only chance to throw out the yoke of poverty and start the march to prosperity and opulence.
We are also told, the march will not commence until and unless we win the presidency, and we shall only commence this march upon Raila, and not Onyango Oloo, Raphael Tuju or James Orengo winning the presidency. Any other win is fake and not truly Luo. Or so we hear.
Fate is sealed
Until recently, nothing was stopping ‘Agwambo’ from winning the coveted trophy. After all, two of the leading presidential candidates Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto had been entangled with the International Criminal Court (ICC). Their fate was sealed.
Kalonzo Musyoka was considered weak against Raila’s campaign juggernaut. Then again, something went wrong, very wrong. The ICC confirmed that nothing, not even the confirmation of the charges against the two would bar them from the contest. Coupled with Raila’s steady descent in opinion polls, the numbers may just refuse to add up yet again as they did in 2007 and 1992.
It is thus imperative that the Luo start thinking and voting like the rest of Kenyans. No one has exclusivity, save for messianic descent, to save the community from its economic and social afflictions.
In 1992, the Kikuyu had both Matiba and Kibaki. In 2002 they had Kibaki and Uhuru and come next year they already have not less than five candidates from different parties.
The rest of the country has several candidates. They are at peace with their campaigns, except in Luoland where hooligans break up meet-the-people tours.
I say, Luo Nyanza has slightly over one million votes against Gema’s estimated voting strength of 4.5 million votes, the Kalenjin and Kamba had slightly over a million votes each, the Kisii about 600,000, and Luhyas above 1.4 million among others.
A Raila presidency could as well be a pipe dream. This added to the fact that the Constitution requires 50 per cent plus one vote to clinch the presidency in the first round, failing which the best two would compete in a simple majority basis.
And what if Raila does not hack it then?
It is high time the Luo integrate politically with the rest of Kenya. In other words a Raila, Uhuru or Ruto presidency should have the Luo as senior members of their administration. But nobody will appoint you to high political office if you do not support their political cause. But that’s a fallacy.
Hedging our bets
Consider this. Other Kenyan communities are already strategically placed should Raila, Uhuru, Ruto or Kalonzo win. For the Kikuyu, the likes of Peter Kuguru, Njenga Karume, Joe Wanjui, and Stanley Githunguri are watching brief in Raila’s camp. The rest remain with Uhuru. Luos are stacked with 'Agwambo'. What if he fails as he has done before?
Why aren’t we hedging our bets and allow some to walk with Uhuru, others with Ruto, others Kalonzo, as the rest of Kenyans are?
Let all men be in the know. We have to work hard and integrate with the rest of Kenyans. Let no one associate our poverty and misery with Luo inability to win the presidency. If that be the case, are the Luhya , the Meru, Kisii, Maasai, or Swahili, faring worse, just because they have not held the presidency?
Let all men be in the know. We have to work hard and integrate with the rest of Kenyans. Let no one associate our poverty and misery with Luo inability to win the presidency. If that be the case, are the Luhya , the Meru, Kisii, Maasai, or Swahili, faring worse, just because they have not held the presidency?
And can somebody explain the whereabouts of the famed half loaf of 2008?
By Onyango Oloo
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