The pair of Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi would be best placed to win the presidency and vice-presidency if an election were to be held, a new opinion polls says.
By OLIVER MATHENGE omathenge@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, April 30 2011 at 22:00
Posted Saturday, April 30 2011 at 22:00
In Summary
- New poll show presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta team up with Kalonzo Musyoka as running mate follows the ODM pair in approval ratings
The pair of Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi would be best placed to win the presidency and vice-presidency if an election were to be held today, a new opinion poll shows.
The next formidable combination would be that of Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta deputised by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, while a Kenyatta-William Ruto team comes in third.
According to the results of the survey released by pollster Synovate on Saturday, none of the possible combinations involving the perceived front runners for the two top seats enjoys enough support to win decisively if the elections were called today.
The poll which was conducted between March 27 and April 1 shows that 20 per cent of Kenyans would vote for Odinga-Mudavadi, eight per cent for the Uhuru-Kalonzo combination and six per cent for Uhuru-Ruto.
It also shows that 10 per cent of Kenyans would vote for Mr Odinga and any other person. Eight per cent of the respondents said they would vote for any other combination outside the list of currently perceived presidential aspirants.
The challenge for the potential presidential candidates in choosing their ideal running mates is, however, huge, according to political scientist Tom Wolf, a consultant for Synovate.
Mr Wolf explained that the issue of a running mate introduced by the new Constitution makes presidential polls more “complex”.
“For instance, there is nothing damaging for the President and the Deputy President coming from the same region as they would have been elected anyway. However, during the campaigns they will have to convince the rest of the country that they actually have a national outlook,” Mr Wolf said.
Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi both come from the western part of the country and are the top leaders of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Mr Wolf said the changes would see more emphasis being given to manifestos as compared to the past.
But there is more to the game than choosing a running mate whose name must be presented together with that of the presidential candidate when they are presenting their nomination papers ahead of the election.
According to Mr Wolf, the practice in other presidential systems is that the candidate and his key advisers must look for a person who has a close personal and working relationship with him or her.
“The other issue that one must bear in mind is the added value that the running mate is bringing in order to attract the necessary resources needed for the campaign. There is no single individual who can claim to have the capacity to finance a presidential campaign on their own,” said Mr Wolf.
The other consideration is how many additional votes the running mate is bringing to the ticket and their capacity to reach out to other areas where the presidential candidate does not have solid support.
“The other criterion is whether the preferred running mate has the capacity to rule and run the country in case a vacancy falls in the office of the president,” said Mr Wolf.
Under the new law, a vacancy in the office of the President will not lead to an election as has been the case in the past. Instead, the deputy President will continue with the presidential duties for the remaining part of the term.
Data from the same poll, but which was released two weeks ago, show that Mr Odinga is the most preferred presidential candidate at 38 per cent followed by Mr Kenyatta at 18 per cent.
The two are followed by Mr Musyoka (13 per cent), Mr Ruto (eight per cent), Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua (six per cent) and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa (three per cent). Mr Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth garnered one per cent each.
The poll shows that 45 per cent of those who would vote Mr Odinga as president would prefer Mr Mudavadi as his running mate with another 24 per cent saying that they should choose someone other than the front runners.
The survey shows that 63 per cent of those who want Mr Ruto as their president prefer that he settles for Mr Kenyatta as his running mate in the race to State House.
Only 12 per cent of Mr Ruto’s supporters want him to team up with Mr Musyoka with another 10 per cent saying they would prefer Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa as his running mate.
Fourteen per cent of those polled and support Mr Odinga as President would want the PM to choose Ms Karua while another eight per cent would like him to settle for Mr Marende.
Six per cent would like to see him team up with Mr Musyoka while five per cent would want to see him choose Mr Kenyatta.
And 35 per cent of those polled and support Mr Kenyatta as president would prefer Mr Musyoka as his running mate as compared to 29 per cent who prefer Mr Ruto with whom he is facing charges at the International Criminal Court.
Another 14 per cent prefer Mr Kenyatta to choose anyone else other than those considered as running mate. Only 13 per cent and six per cent think that Mr Kenyatta should settle for Mr Karua or Mr Wamalwa respectively as the running mate.
The relationship between Mr Kenyatta’s supporters and those of Mr Musyoka appear to be reciprocal. At least 34 per cent of Mr Musyoka’s supporters would like to see him choose Mr Kenyatta as his deputy.
Another 21 per cent would wish that he got his running mate from outside the current top contenders while 14 per cent would want him to run with Mr Ruto.
An interesting finding is that Ms Karua’s supporters appear more divided on who she should have as running mate with 26 per cent saying they would prefer that she got her running mate from outside the circle of the top contenders.
This is compared with 14 per cent who think that she can team up with either Mr Musyoka or Mr Wamalwa and 12 per cent who think Mr Kenyatta is the ideal running mate for her.
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