RAILA TOSHA

President Mwai Kibaki will likely shock the political world when he declares his preferred presidential candidate for 2012. Most people believe that Mr Kibaki will back a PNU candidate — Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka or Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

But I think both gentlemen and PNU are in for a rude awakening. We can’t be sure what Mr Kibaki will do because he has never had to choose his successor. But we know the man is rarely a loyal political ally to his aides. Mr Kibaki is now concerned about his legacy. That’s why I think he will say “Raila Tosha” in 2012. I believe he is quietly anointing Prime Minister Raila Odinga to succeed him.

Let me extrapolate. Mr Kibaki is a man of few words. He keeps even those closest to him guessing about his true intentions. He has kept Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta in political limbo. He is cryptic and opaque with them. They do not know where he stands.

Take his demotion of minister William Ruto, their key ally. Or Mr Kibaki’s comments at Mr Musyoka’s silver jubilee celebrations in Mwingi three weeks ago. He gave Mr Musyoka vague encouragement, but refused to endorse him. Mr Kibaki has been somewhat aloof from Mr Kenyatta because he figures that a Kikuyu will not sell in 2012.

These are bad signs for both Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta. Loyalty is valued in some political circles, but not in Mr Kibaki’s. Kenya is littered with former Kibaki loyalists who now languish in political oblivion. Remember Matere Keriri, the former gatekeeper at State House who pissed off the First Lady only to be banished forever?

Mr Keriri had been a long-term associate of Mr Kibaki, but was gone never to return. Another casualty was Daudi Mwiraria who was brought to his knees by Anglo Leasing. He is now a faint memory in Kenya’s political roster. The same fate met Chris Murungaru, the pugnacious big fellow who was a heavy Kibaki lifter. Dr Murungaru, once a Kibaki confidante, is now politically “finished”.

This brings me to Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta. Both men were instrumental in securing a second term for Mr Kibaki. Mr Musyoka campaigned against him, only to throw him a lifeline just when ODM was about to make the country ungovernable. If Mr Musyoka had joined forces with Mr Odinga as the country was burning, Mr Kibaki would have had to leave State House. That’s why Mr Musyoka expects Mr Kibaki to pay him back in 2012.

But if the fate of Martha Karua, the irrepressible Gichugu MP is anything to go by, Mr Musyoka should not hold his breath. No one fought harder — and with more guts — for Mr Kibaki against Mr Odinga than Ms Karua. But Mr Kibaki cut her off at the knees when she dared dream of succeeding him. There is a lesson there for Mr Musyoka.

I think legacy will have a lot to do with who Mr Kibaki will bless. The clues are in Mr Kibaki’s support for the draft constitution. The man has even thrown the Christian clergy, long his loyal supporters, overboard on the constitution. They might as well be damned because his legacy is more important than their No campaign.

Mr Kibaki wants to go down in history as the President who gave Kenya a democratic constitution after two decades of futility. This is where his interests and those of Mr Odinga converge. Mr Odinga, the other visible leader of the Yes campaign, will reap massive benefits if the new law passes.

Mr Kibaki knows this, and is obviously comfortable with it. It is not lost on him that Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta have been fence-sitters and malingerers on the draft constitution. The two may not even know that they have already lost to Mr Odinga on the most important issue going to the 2012.

Some pundits have claimed that Mr Kibaki gave Mr Odinga the Mau issue as a poisoned chalice – to divide him from Mr Ruto and the Kalenjin. I respectfully disagree. Mr Kibaki calculated that Mr Ruto will have no legs come 2012 and that the so-called KKK Alliance will suffer an ignominious collapse.

By leading on Mau, Mr Odinga was seen by most Kenyans as putting Kenya above his own personal political survival. He became an “issues” politician, and not one driven purely by ethnic math. Mr Kibaki may also believe that the 2012 elections could the first non-tribal, issue-oriented election since independence.

Mr Kibaki would secure his legacy by supporting Mr Odinga, a Luo for president. He would be remembered as the Kikuyu who healed the rift between the Luo and the Kikuyu. In 2002, Mr Odinga famously said “Kibaki Tosha” and propelled the man from Othaya to State House.

I predict that Mr Kibaki will return the favour in 2012. My crystal ball tells me that in his twilight, Mr Kibaki, the intellectual will burnish his legacy by doing the unpredictable. This is how Papa Kibaki will buy his way into history.