Would a Raila Odinga presidency have had state institutional and key government personnel endorsement to guarantee takeoff and sustenance or was he going to be a superimposition in hostile relationship with the incumbent handlers of the primary levers of state power?
Indeed, crucial state arms were actively hostile to his election and were involved in schemes to see to it that he came a cropper. Worse still, sections of the media, through acts of omission, selective reporting and generally skewed analysis positioned themselves to put ‘democracy on trial.’
Who would have given him national security intelligence? Would it have been Gichangi of the NSIS, Karangi the head of the armed forces or Kimemia, the ideological son of the revered Michuki?
These are not imaginary questions. No one serious enough has doubts about the popularity of Raila Odinga compared to the de jure pair of leaders at the helm of government in Kenya. Similarly, no one serious can doubt the fact that those at the helm of state security organs and key government department worked or prayed for Raila’s fall.
Speaking as a workmate of the CORD candidate, I can say authoritatively that Raila never had faith in the leadership of the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission under Hassan.
His hopes were more in the electorate, media, international public opinion and emerging global political dispensation whose combined effect would have created a supportive environment for his election and sustenance of his presidency.
Every time I saw him, I shivered and feared what a win would mean to him in particular and to us his dogs in general. With the passage of time, his facial image to my eyes evolved into an overlap of historical personalities who fought for power in circumstances similar to his.
He projected the image of the late Benazir Butto of Palistan or Patrice Emery Lumumba, the popular Congolese premier who won the popular vote but got rejected by those in control of the levers of power in 1960 and killed him. Kwame Nkrumah was overthrown by hostile state organs which he inherited from the British in 1966.
Nearer home, Obote survived assassination by a whisker when a bullet passed through his mouth removing a tooth in similar transitional circumstances and was eventually overthrown.
Silvano Allende of Chile faced a worse fate after winning an election for presidency in 1971 at the hands of those in powerful offices. Laurent Kabila did not survive the competing interests of the state organs he presided over in DR Congo.
Whichever way I looked at the consequences of a win for a man I always addressed as “elder brother”, I feared for him given the national political balance of power and the desperation of our immensely weighed down opponents by implications of their historical baggage.
Actually, personalities whose moral DNA was synonymous with all that Raila fought against. I shuddered at the thought of ‘President’ Raila Odinga overflying Ngong Hills in a Helicopter to preside over the anniversary of Alexander Muge. It just could not add up.
I suffered these fears and concerns alone unable to share with friends on superstitious grounds and could not dare fellowship with Raila Odinga himself. How could I talk of fear to a man who waved handcuffs smiling at the crowd when he was facing treason charges that carried a mandatory death sentence in “Moi’s courts” in 1982?
A man who led with a spirit that pointed at the possibility of him having dug his grave. How could I talk to a man who on arrival from a foreign trip as Prime Minister disobeyed security caution and visited Eastleigh and Garissa town after deadly blasts that left scores dead and injured?
Remember that no one in high office (Kibaki, Uhuru, Ruto, Kimemia, Kianga etc) dared go to this two places except the Kamukunji Member of Parliament whose price has consigned him to the wheel chair after an attack.
In my considered opinion, an easy cruise of Raila’s presidency would have defied the essence of Kenya’s balance of power, the ‘common sense’ of the incumbent, logic and African history.
Raila’s ‘loss’ in this election is obviously a blow to the momentum and perhaps sustainability of the national reform effort but clearly the only safe path out of deadly waters for him and his political kind. If there is any wisdom in ‘living to fight again’, then his loss may have been a blessing to this nation in an ugly disguise in the name of yet another messed up presidential election.
I believe Raila is able to swallow the bitter pill of two rigged elections because he understands the fate of his predecessors. The TJRC report correctly attributed assassinations to political competition. Those from the reform side of the divide in Kenya’s power struggles have been weeded out before the blow of a whistle for presidential electoral contests.
Dedan Kimaathi was hanged. JM Kariuki was denied a chance to succeed Kenyatta with five bullets according to a postmortem report. Raila, thanks to the people’s struggles and vigilance, can only suffer a rigged election clearly the luckiest among them.
Wafula Buke is the Former Field Manager for Raila for President Secretariat
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