Why Ruto may have to struggle to win Kalenjin vote

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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, February 2  2013 at  17:53

IN SUMMARY

• Little value: I believe his value to Mr Kenyatta is greatly diminished
• Subordinating himself to Mr Kenyatta again as he did in 2002 didn’t go down well with “his” people

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You’ve often heard parents warning children not to bite more than they can chew. Methinks Jubilee deputy presidential nominee William Ruto should heed this wisdom. Even though “Samoei” is his middle name – I don’t know how he got it – he’s no Koitalel.

That’s not only because Samoei was Koitalel’s surname. The legendary Nandi supreme chief Samoei arap Koitalel was a nationalist to the core. He led the Nandi military rebellion against British colonial rule.

On October 19, 1905, the cowardly British lured Chief Koitalel to a meeting under the guise of negotiating a truce. There, they murdered him in cold blood. That’s the only way the British could defeat him – by committing a war crime. I’ll repeat – Mr Ruto is no Koitalel.

I only draw this tongue-in-cheek parallel because Mr Ruto may fancy himself a modern-day Samoei. But I have news for the pugnacious politician.

The Nandi – let alone the Kalenjin Nation – may desert him. That’s because he seems to be a rebel without a cause. I mean a cause “his” people can dig. He has overplayed The Hague sympathy card.

He has tried to emotionally extort the Kalenjin. Will they see the light? The International Criminal Court dealt him a blow when it cleared Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey of war crimes charges. This took away his argument that The Hague had targeted the Kalenjin. He could no longer create a siege mentality among the Kalenjin. The Kalenjin don’t want to be isolated.

Then Mr Ruto made a strategic blunder. He gave up his presidential bid, and agreed to play second fiddle to Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. Subordinating himself to Mr Kenyatta again – as he did in 2002 – didn’t go down well with “his” people.

Return the favour

Wasn’t it Mr Kenyatta’s turn to return the favour and support Mr Ruto? Why, some folks in the Rift Valley asked, did Mr Ruto have to be Mr Kenyatta’s underling again? That’s something Samoei, the Chief, wouldn’t have done.

Mr Ruto can’t be a credible ethnic baron by bowing to another ethnic baron. It’s not something tough-talking tribal barons do. It’s costly.

This is partly why he’s lost ground where he once commanded a fanatical following.

Mr Ruto forgot that former President Daniel arap Moi – the “professor of politics” and his veritable mentor – has been lying in wait.

Mr Ruto, a child prodigy who Mr Moi brought from political obscurity before he turned prodigal son, may have forgotten the maestro. But the maestro hasn’t forgotten him.

That’s what success can do to you – go to your head. Since 2007, when Mr Ruto supplanted Mr Moi as the guru of Kalenjin politics, he has treated the once omnipotent Moi as irrelevant.

Mr Ruto, as they say, has forgotten where he came from. He’s forgotten the saying that “you dance with the one that brung you”. Remember your “godfathers” even if you’ve outstripped them. It’ll save you grief.

The former president’s son, Gideon, has taken over Kanu. You can take this to the bank – young Gideon’s strings are being pulled by the elder Moi. Why is this relevant? Because the elder Moi – and President Mwai Kibaki – could be the forces behind UDF presidential candidate Musalia Mudavadi.

That’s why Kanu will work its rear end off to get Mr Mudavadi and UDF as many votes as possible in the Rift Valley. Kanu may be as dead as a door knob elsewhere in the country, but it still has a heartbeat in Mr Moi’s haunts.

Its vast networks and patronage over decades by the Mois have deep roots. It may be time for the Mois “to collect”.

Stood to lose

Mr Ruto saw this coming. That’s why he readily joined Mr Kenyatta in booting Mr Mudavadi from Jubilee. Mr Ruto stood to lose a lot if Mr Mudavadi stayed in Jubilee.

And get this – Mr Ruto can’t afford to lose the Rift Valley because he has no purchase anywhere else.

Mr Mudavadi would have marginalised Mr Ruto within Jubilee because he would have been able to “steal” the latter’s votes while keeping his own.

The Mois would have liked nothing more than to humiliate the precocious “Young Turk”. They may get their wish.

It’s clear now that Mr Ruto’s iron grip over his backyard has been loosened. I believe his value to Mr Kenyatta is greatly diminished.

Those who live by the sword often die by it. Mr Ruto has been ruthless with his political sword. He’s a true opportunist – never misses an opportunity to hog-tie his opponents.

That was evident when he turned on Mr Moi. Nor did he turn around to find out what had happened to Mr Moi after he kicked him to the curb. There’s an old saying: “be kind to people on your way up in case they remember you on your way down”.

Mr Ruto seems to have forgotten this lesson, and the chickens may be coming home to roost. This means the vote in the Rift Valley may be more unsettled than people think.

I have often said that there would be no wolves if there were no sheep. The average Kenyan voter will only be herded into a tribal block so long as she’s willing to surrender her conscience to ethnic barons.

This disease afflicts every ethnic community in Kenya. That’s why all the pre-election pacts are tribal pacts.

They are all – and I mean all – fronted by ethnic barons. But it seems some groups – like the Kalenjin – are willing to let go of the “tribal djinn”. I bet Mr Ruto didn’t count on the Kalenjin refusing to drink this intoxicant.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC. Twitter @makaumutua.