In news first broken in the blogs by this writer on December 18, 2013, it was reported and confirmed the next day that Uhuru had agreed to abandon his presidential bid and instead back Musalia Mudavadi as the flag-bearer for the Jubilee coalition.
Even before the ink on the deal dried, however, Uhuru was all over the media, first acknowledging there was, indeed, a deal with Mudavadi for Uhuru to step down for Mudavadi but denounced the agreement as work of the devil he could not honour.
With that, the first casualty of the 2013 elections season was in the books and that’s the quick rise and fast disintegration of the Jubilee coalition that’s now limping to the finish line where it’s likely to cross second to Raila’s Cord.
What really happened?
The devil obviously did not conference with Uhuru and give him instructions to abandon his presidential bid in favour of Mudavadi.
Rather, credible sources say Uhuru was summoned to a security briefing comprising of both top Kenyan security officials and international security observers and operatives in the country, led by agents from our leading allies; the US and UK.
At this briefing, an assessment of what an Uhuru presidency would portend was given that left no doubt in Uhuru’s mind or in the mind of anyone present that Uhuru had no option but to abandon his presidential bid.
In the words of one of the security experts, the scenario they painted was to "arise automatically and irretrievably so” were Uhuru to be elected as president.
During this meeting, Uhuru was told his core supporters would initially “raise hell” with his agreeing to step-down but in the end, they will support either Ruto or Mudavadi, whoever Uhuru choses to support for the top post.
Why would this group basically say it was okay for Ruto to vie for the presidency but not his co-charged at the Hague, Uhuru? The answer lies in another consideration that weighed heavily in this group pressuring Uhuru to step down and that’s simply the fact he is a Kikuyu.
According to the source, the group felt very strongly Kenyans are not in the mood to have yet another Kikuyu president and none other than those present from the community agreed with that assessment.
The group, however, did not think it was a good thing either for Ruto to vie but instead preferred that Mudavadi be anointed as the acceptable alternate to both and essentially become a toy remotely controlled from the Mt Kenya region.
Uhuru was then told stepping down for Mudavadi or even Ruto for that matter, would give him ample time and breathing room to more effectively defend himself against the charges he faces at the Hague.
Uhuru took all this in and then gave those present his word that he would not put the country through all that they had painted and would therefore oblige and abandon his bid for the presidency.
After this meeting, Uhuru and Ruto had a four-day meeting of plotting and strategising—if you can call it that—and agreed to a power sharing pact they took to Mudavadi and dictated to him the terms.
Mudavadi being the weak, indecisive person he is, he accepted the deal and signed the MoU, one may suspect without much of even an effort to make it better for him and his supporters.
The result was a lopsided deal with Uhuru and Ruto on one side and Mudavadi on the lonely other side. Uhuru was to get 41 per cent of key government positions, Ruto 31 per cent and Mudavadi 26 per cent.
The irony here is, much as in 2002 where he accepted to be a running mate in what was clearly a sinking Uhuru-Moi project ship, Mudavadi naively accepted to once again be a project in what is no doubt another sinking ship and compounded this by believing Uhuru would so easily hand-over to him something as valuable as the party he has built from scratch.
Uhuru, on the other hand, is charging forward with his presidential bid like a deer crossing a road oblivious of the dangers involved. In the best possible scenario, the deer could cross the road unscathed only to be welcomed by a lion ready to make it its meal for the day.
That’s what could happen if Uhuru is elected, not only because he will he be spending months if not years permanently in the Hague defending himself but also because he actually could be convicted and sent to jail. He will end up in a situation similar to the deer that cheats death while blindly crossing the road only to become lunch for the lion.
On the other hand, a bus driver could swerve to avoid hitting the dear only to lose control and plunge over a cliff where there is nothing but death, suffering and all manner of calamity for everyone aboard.
That can only happen if Uhuru is elected with the ICC trials hanging over his head. He will lead our country straight over a cliff and plunge us into the kind of calamity and suffering he was warned of.
There is a third possibility where the deer cheats death by narrowly escaping being run over and the bus remains on course but that has no realistic corresponding outcome in Uhuru’s election.
Uhuru’s trial at the Hague will make it impossible for him to govern, throwing our country into an unprecedented territory where a country has been led by an absentee president. On the other hand, he could opt to jump bail and skip trial making us a pariah nation.
Which raises the question, why did Uhuru suddenly reverse course and renege on his MoU with Mudavadi?
The answer may point to what many believe to be a widening rift between Kibaki and his inner circle who want someone other than Uhuru for president on one hand and Uhuru himself and his hangers-on on the other.
These hangers-on have somehow managed to convince him that he has a chance at being elected president the serious crimes against humanity he faces at the Hague notwithstanding.
If there has been any doubt as to there being a rift between Kibaki and Uhuru, it has been removed by at least two recent events.
First, many believe for Mary Wambui to have been given the nomination for Othaya, this had to have been the work of, or an outcome sanctioned by Uhuru himself and quite plainly a slap in the face for Jimmy Kibaki. Would Uhuru have delivered such a slap in the face to Jimmy, if he and Kibaki were playing on the same team?
Second, there was the Al Jazeera interview where Uhuru said very boldly that Kibaki should have been charged alongside him. Yes, he said so should have Raila but the focus here is on his relationship with Kibaki that no doubt has gotten even more sore. This leads to more questions:
If, indeed, there is a rift between Uhuru and Ruto, what does it mean for the election? Or for Jubilee? Or for the day when Uhuru turns up (or does not turn up) at The Hague?
Nobody knows what the answers are for sure, but there cannot be any question that the existence of such a rift can only be good news for Raila and Cord.
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