It is a paradox that the ongoing debate surrounding Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta’s ‘eligibility’ for the presidency has not in any way diminished support for him.
According to recent opinion polls, Uhuru is the favourite to clinch the presidency despite his tribulations at the ICC. Looking at the issues at play and going by research by political scientists this is not supposed to happen.
But Uhuru has defied the law of political gravity. So what is the explanation? I can think of four possibilities. People vote more prospectively than retrospectively.
Is Uhuru better off today than he was 10 years ago when he was someone’s ‘project’? Certainly. He has shed the tag ‘State House project’ and has endeared himself to his core supporters and the common mwananchi. He has evolved into a seasoned and tested politician in both principle and action.
The same test applies to Prime Minister Raila Odinga: Is he better off today than he was five years ago? The predicament facing Raila, Uhuru’s closest challenger, is that he is being treated as an incumbent despite Uhuru being his deputy in government.
Raila is being blamed for the failings of government on account of personal responsibility that may cost him the presidency. The premier is also facing an image crisis following desertion by all four key lieutenants of the ODM Pentagon. The desertions have already cost him majority of the Rift Valley votes.
The ICC cases – the red herring: The charges against Uhuru and his running mate William Ruto are the common denominator that brings the two together. The case has given them an undying resolve to clinch the presidency.
Trust Uhuru and Ruto to make the ICC debate the single most important political issue during the electioneering period.
A debate on who stands for Kenya’s sovereignty has ensued and research indicates that when it comes to elections the average voter would essentially vote for a person who would fight and protect the state sovereignty and is not susceptible to manipulation by the West.
Uhuru represents sovereignty while Raila represents an affront to state sovereignty. The youth vote. Unfortunately the economy is not the number one issue in this election.
The concerns of young people, especially unemployment, are more important. Uhuru has reengineered youth participation in politics. He has acted the part as evidenced by his deeds. The National Alliance Party is run by officials whose average age is 29.
The proposers for his presidential bid were young. His presidential campaign activities are full of youthful energy and spirit. Core to the scramble for the youth vote has been the idea of generational change in leadership, what TNA has dubbed ‘digital vs analogue’.
The tyranny of numbers. Love him or hate him Mutahi Ngunyi’s postulation is so real that any rational being who would want to discredit its existence is naive.
People are not telling the truth to the pollsters. The deciding factor in this election is the mashinani voter – the county and the resultant dominance of the coalitions within the said counties.
The voting patterns in most of the counties can now be ascertained and it’s not rocket science to postulate the numbers behind them.
While it is depressing that the outcome of this election would be based on ethnic arithmetics no one can downplay the real possibility of an Uhuru presidency, cases at The Hague notwithstanding. Doing so would be irrational.
The writer is an advocate of the High Court of Kenya.
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