Statistically, the odds of winning depend a lot on whether there is an incumbent seeking reelection. In 2013, we can argue CORD represents the incumbent-with the Prime Minister and the Vice-President. Incumbency offers tremendous advantages, by some estimates adding at least 3 points to the “normal” result, turning a 50-50 election into one that is 53-47. This is what is giving Raila a lead over Uhuru.
If there is an election a party would normally be expected to win, the smart thing to do is to nominate a low-beta candidate. That is why Jubilee may have won already had they settled for Musalia Mudavadi. If, on the other hand, a party is thought likely to lose, it might select a high-beta candidate. That would increase its chances of winning, though it would also increase its chances of losing big.
If we were to look at the overall map, constituency by constituency, there are a lot of variations that present CORD with a more clear roadmap to 50+1 as opposed to Jubilee. From County 1 in Mombasa to County 47 in Nairobi, CORD will likely post impressive numbers.
It is surprising that in the Rift Valley where William Ruto is expected to deliver the most votes; Nandi country, Elgeyo Marakwet County and Uasin Gishu county, the total registered voters are 707,795. Contrast that with Eastern province in two counties Kalonzo Musyoka is expected to do well for CORD, Makueni and Machakos. The two combine for a total of 745,955 votes.
The Rift Valley province will be one interesting area to watch. What impact will Gideon Moi have on Baringo country? Will he deliver a certain percentage of votes to Musalia Mudavadi and deny Uhuru the much needed advantage?
Kiambu county may look good in numbers for Jubilee but we must not forget constituencies like Ruiru, Juja and Thika are very cosmopolitan. In Kiambu, it would be surprising to see CORD get around 100,000 votes. If Raila manages just that, he will be on the safer side. To this end, I see Uhuru pitching camp in Kiambu in days close to the election.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Just Like Newt Gingrich, Uhuru Kenyatta should Honour the Debate
Sometime in January 2012, the Republicans were preparing to debate in the Southern side. A few days to the debate, New Gingrich's ex wife let out a bombshell-that Newt had asked her to have an open relationship during their marriage.
This of course was picked up by the media and almost made Newt not attend the debate at hand, after CNN put this allegation as one of the debate questions for Mr. Newt! As bold as he has always been, Newt Gingrich took this in stride and decided to attend the debate, against the advise from his handlers not to. He knew so well that his run for the GOP presidential candidature was at risk granted that he was running as a conservative candidate, and such a matter would not do him good.
When John King, the moderator of the debate hit the question on Newt, he did not know that this was the moment Newt was waiting for. Newt went ahead to excoriate King for asking him the question.
"I think the destructive vicious negative nature of much of the news media makes it harder to govern this country, harder to attract decent people to run for public office. I’m appalled you would begin a presidential debate on a topic like that. Every person in here knows personal pain. Every person in here has had someone close to them go through painful things. To take an ex-wife and make it two days before the primary, a significant question in a presidential campaign, is as close to despicable as anything I can imagine. My two daughters wrote the head of ABC and made the point that it was wrong, that they should pull it, and I am, frankly, astounded that CNN would take trash like that and use it to open a presidential debate.”
“This story did not come from our network,” King contended. “As you also know, it is the subject of conversation on the campaign. I get your point, I take –”
“John, it was repeated by your network,” Gingrich interjected. “You chose to start the debate with it. Don’t blame it on somebody else. You and your staff chose to start the debate with it.”
Within an hour after the debate, Newt Gingrich, who had trailed in a majority of polls, picked up a huge bump. In fact, he went on to win the next primary.
No one should quit a debate. Its the best opportunity to go after detractor and close a matter once and for all.
This of course was picked up by the media and almost made Newt not attend the debate at hand, after CNN put this allegation as one of the debate questions for Mr. Newt! As bold as he has always been, Newt Gingrich took this in stride and decided to attend the debate, against the advise from his handlers not to. He knew so well that his run for the GOP presidential candidature was at risk granted that he was running as a conservative candidate, and such a matter would not do him good.
When John King, the moderator of the debate hit the question on Newt, he did not know that this was the moment Newt was waiting for. Newt went ahead to excoriate King for asking him the question.
"I think the destructive vicious negative nature of much of the news media makes it harder to govern this country, harder to attract decent people to run for public office. I’m appalled you would begin a presidential debate on a topic like that. Every person in here knows personal pain. Every person in here has had someone close to them go through painful things. To take an ex-wife and make it two days before the primary, a significant question in a presidential campaign, is as close to despicable as anything I can imagine. My two daughters wrote the head of ABC and made the point that it was wrong, that they should pull it, and I am, frankly, astounded that CNN would take trash like that and use it to open a presidential debate.”
“This story did not come from our network,” King contended. “As you also know, it is the subject of conversation on the campaign. I get your point, I take –”
“John, it was repeated by your network,” Gingrich interjected. “You chose to start the debate with it. Don’t blame it on somebody else. You and your staff chose to start the debate with it.”
Within an hour after the debate, Newt Gingrich, who had trailed in a majority of polls, picked up a huge bump. In fact, he went on to win the next primary.
No one should quit a debate. Its the best opportunity to go after detractor and close a matter once and for all.
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