Why a Raila-Ruto alliance strikes fear among politicians

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PHOTO | FILE Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s supporters at a past rally in Nairobi. Eldoret North MP William Ruto attracts the same kind of crowds, which would make an alliance of the two quite formidable.   NATION MEDIA GROUP

By JULIUS SIGEI jsigei@ke.natinmedia.com
Posted  Saturday, October 20  2012 at  23:30

IN SUMMARY

• Mr Odinga’s surprise overtures to his former deputy is being watched keenly as it could determine the outcome of next year’s General Election
• After numerous muted denials of a meeting at the home of a powerful Moi-era presidential aide last week, Mr Ruto on Thursday finally gave his lieutenants the details of the overtures
• Analysts the Sunday Nation spoke to bill it as formidable alliance that could easily sweep its way to power in next year’s General Election

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The possible come-together between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his former ally-turned-bitter-foe, Eldoret North MP William Ruto is causing ripples in the political scene.

Mr Odinga’s surprise overtures to his former deputy is being watched keenly as it could determine the outcome of next year’s General Election.

Mr Odinga is reported to have committed himself to serve for one term as well as cede 50 per cent of the Cabinet positions to Mr Ruto.

After numerous muted denials of a meeting at the home of a powerful Moi-era presidential aide last week, Mr Ruto on Thursday finally gave his lieutenants the details of the overtures. The 20 MPs who met at his Karen home are said to have given him a free hand to make alliances.

Formidable

This was seen as a climb-down for the MPs, most of whom have been spoiling for a fight over the move by Mr Ruto to speak to Mr Odinga.

Analysts the Sunday Nation spoke to bill it as formidable alliance that could easily sweep its way to power in next year’s General Election.

Masinde Muliro University don Lelei Kiboi said the alliance would scare any opponent as the both Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto are seasoned politicians with a huge following and near fanatical support in their populous home turfs.

“They also have the capacity to roll out a campaign strategy that would be difficult to beat.”

Former Subukia MP Koigi wa Wamwere agreed, but added the alliance would isolate Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and the Kikuyu. He cautioned that if the proposed alliance between Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto materialised, it could lead to the 2007 situation in which the rest of the country appeared to go against the Mt Kenya region in voting patterns.

“Many are feeling that if Raila and Ruto come together and Uhuru does not choose to support someone from another region, it will be another 41-against-1 scenario,” he said.

Perhaps it is such thinking that informed Mr Kenyatta’s move to begin structured talks for a pre-election pact with Mr Ruto whose command of the Rift Valley, Kenya’s largest and most populous region, is making him the most sought-after politician in Kenya today.

Assistant minister Kazungu Kambi confirmed the Thursday night talks at Mr Ruto’s Karen home, but added they were not closing out other aspirants.

“We met and mandated our candidate to engage with TNA … but we do not want to close the door on anyone. We even want to talk to Raila, [Vice-President] Kalonzo Musyoka and [Deputy Prime Minister Musalia] Mudavadi in our mission to build a united country,” he said.

Dr Adams Oloo of the University of Nairobi’s department of political science says the possibility of Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto coming together is causing jitters because the two are energetic campaigners who had between them the capacity to rally the country behind them.

He added that their coming together would also send the G7 alliance into disarray.

“Ruto is the glue that holds it together. Even though opinion polls rate him below Uhuru, he ranks above him on national appeal as he has made inroads in Coast, North Eastern and other pastoralist areas, besides a vice-like grip on the Kalenjin Rift Valley.”

The biggest loser

Dr Oloo, however, disagreed with Mr Wamwere, saying an alliance between the two politicians would not necessarily lead to a 41-against-1 scenario as there would still be Mr Mudavadi and Mr Musyoka, who come from the second and fifth-largest communities, respectively.

Former Ntonyiri MP Maoka Maore said the duo would be unbeatable, adding that Mr Mudavadi was the biggest loser in the arrangement.

“The alliance would derail and break the morale of Mr Mudavadi more than anything else. His compromise candidature would be thrown out the window.”

In a race in which a presidential winner must garner 25 per cent of the votes in at least 24 counties besides bagging more than 50 per cent of the total votes cast, Mr Ruto is seen as a crucial asset because of the high number of counties occupied by his Kalenjin community.

The sensitivity of the land question in the Rift Valley appears to be the biggest dilemma in the choice Mr Ruto will have to make between his suitors.

According to land expert Ibrahim Mwathane, many peasants who had lost their land to white settlers in central Kenya moved to the Rift Valley as labourers at the height of the struggle for independence.

President Kenyatta’s government facilitated the sale of land previously owned by the settlers, with most beneficiaries being individuals from Central, Nyanza and Western provinces.

“Years of stay in the Rift Valley by such people would later create a melting pot of diverse ethnic communities, a situation which has been exploited by politicians to create a senseless cycle of tribal violence seen in 1992, 1997 and 2007,” he writes in a conference paper titled ‘The contribution of land to the recent violence in Kenya: Implications for the ongoing land policy dialogue’.

Mr Bill Ruto, a political analyst and cultural researcher says: “Some are arguing here [Rift Valley] that if we cannot have one of our own, we need to support one who has no interest in our land. Between Uhuru and Raila, they say the latter fits the bill.”

However, a number of MPs from the Rift Valley say the idea of Mr Odinga getting the endorsement of Kalenjin Rift Valley is a long shot.

“We have moved on. The ground is hostile to a call to support Mr Odinga. Grievances like Mau Forest evictions are still fresh in the minds of the voters,” said Konoin MP Julius Kones.

Cherang’any’s Joshua Kutuny has threatened to move to TNA if Mr Ruto agrees to work with Mr Odinga. “We have fought this man for four years. How do you expect us to turn overnight and support him?” he asked.

Then there are those who argue that in a situation in which the Kalenjin consider that they are damned if they choose Mr Odinga and doomed if they go for Mr Kenyatta, Mr Mudavadi is the likely beneficiary.

“There is a growing line of thinking here that Mr Mudavadi is the softer landing,” said Mr Herbert Kerre who teaches communication at Kabianga University College in the Rift Valley.