RAILA 74%, RUTO 68%, KIBAKI 54%

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jun 4 - With only two months to the referendum, the latest Synovate opinion poll shows 57 percent of Kenyans will vote Yes.

The poll released on Friday indicated that 20 percent would reject the new law while 19 percent were still undecided which way to vote.

“Those opposed to the draft cite abortion, land and Kadhis’ courts clauses as their main reason,” said Synovate Managing Director George Waititu while releasing the results in a Nairobi hotel on Friday.

Mr Waititu said 77 percent of the sample voters have already made up their mind while four percent say they will not vote at all and another 19 percent is undecided.

“The undecided is an important group to the No side,” he opined.

The research conducted late last month interviewed 6,017 registered voters.

“We were able to ascertain that 75 percent of them were registered voters. 25 percent, refused to show us their voters card but when you run the analysis between those who did and those who did not there was absolutely no difference,” added Mr Waititu.

The poll however indicated that only a tenth of Kenyans are familiar with the contents of the document, a trend that has been noted in previous poll results. Half of the respondents know just ‘a little’ of the draft while a quarter knows a thing or two.

Radio and Television lead as the sources of information for the respondents at 58 percent and 43 percent respectively. 19 percent indicate they have read the draft for themselves while politicians and religious leaders have equally influenced their followers at 17 percent.

“It is not surprising that only a fifth have read the draft for themselves. In this country we don’t read as much as we should because I think it is not engraved in our culture.

“This is an important factor civic educators need to note,” said Mr Waititu.

Further men appear to have read the draft more than women at 43 percent and 28 percent respectively.

However half of the respondents agree that the proposed law “is a good document that needs amendments.” Another 27 percent on the contrary gave their full support to the draft saying it does not need any amendments.

On media coverage the research showed that the Yes team activities are ahead at 24 percent while the No team gets a paltry 13 percent.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga leads personalities who have influenced the Yes vote with 74 percent of his followers in the green caravan with President Mwai Kibaki coming second with 54 percent of his followers saying Yes.

Higher Education Minister Eldoret Ruto, who is the political head if the No camp also has a major influence on his followers with 68 percent of them indicating they will vote No.