Raila Odinga.Photo/File
After rejecting calls to retire from politics, it appears that Raila Odinga is preparing himself for a final stab at the Presidency in 2017.
But after three unsuccessful attempts, Kenyans will be eager to know what it is that he would do differently in 2017 that would finally make him Commander-in-Chief and National CEO.
Political analysts will, likewise, be interested in whatever new bag of tricks Raila may employ. One thing, however, is certain; his main opponent, President Uhuru Kenyatta, will be much more powerful in 2017 than he was in 2013.
As an experienced political strategist, Raila’s hold on a very considerable swathe of Kenya’s politics, coupled with a near-fanatical following among his adherents, makes him a formidable, even feared, opponent in any political contest.
However, if Raila is to win in 2017, he must be prepared to excite his voter base with a new political strategy that promises better alternatives to a Jubilee government that is increasingly losing trust with a majority of Kenyans.
In Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, Emperor Wu of the Sung, while sending his commander Chu Ling-shih to attack Ch’iao Tsung of Shu, conceives his military tactics based on past failures and designs his battlefront offensives in anticipation of his enemy’s past counter-strategies.
And in one of his military briefs, Emperor Wu says, “Last year Liu Ching-hsuan went out of the territory inside the river heading for Huang Wu.
He achieved nothing and returned. Their commander now thinks I should come from outside the river but surmise that I will take them by surprise and come from inside the river”.
The Emperor proceeded to win against a formerly formidable opposition. I think this is a wonderful plan for a new political strategy for Raila in 2017.
Like Emperor Wu, one would expect Raila to study his opponents based on past battles and modify his tactics appropriately. Surprisingly, while Jubilee often conceive their strategies based on their analyses of Raila’s political style, Raila, on the other hand continues to underestimate his competitors.
Buoyed by the perception that the masses are with him, Raila often goes to war basing his strategies purely on people-power factors. Unlike Emperor Wu, who learns from past errors, he continuously hopes that the people’s disenchantment with the State is enough to sway elections in his favour. This is often not the case.
To win in 2017, therefore, there are certain essential changes Raila must adopt.
First he needs a consistent and reliable media team that is capable, at the very least, of going neck-and-neck with Jubilee’s propaganda machinery, and then overtaking it and showing it dust. In 2012/13, Raila remained vulnerable to Jubilee’s propaganda on the ICC and accusations of corruption in the former Prime Minister’s office.
By the time Kenyans went to vote, a sizeable number of them wrongfully believed Raila played a role in taking both Uhuru and William Ruto to The Hague. Recent revelations show this was a campaign gimmick. This level of vulnerability is unsustainable for another run in 2017.
Secondly, Raila must get rid of the current Cord/ODM leadership and replace it with moderate, innovative young leaders capable of making the party appealing to its young constituency.
The Cord campaign team in 2013 was too dogmatic and became liabilities whenever Raila needed to build new alliances. It is time the Emperor sliced them off for the good of his vision.
Thirdly, Raila must expand the current Cord family to build a bigger national movement representative of most voices outside government. This includes keeping Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula while seeking to bring on board the likes of Musalia Mudavadi, Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth.
While this will be difficult, a new political strategy intended to achieve this sole purpose ahead of 2017 can yield positive fruits. A united Opposition under Raila will be a formidable force against a Jubilee side facing public unrest and imminent collapse due to internal wrangles and the usual wear-and-tear caused by being actually in office for one election cycle.
Fourth, with every goof that Jubilee makes, Raila must use his multimedia media team across all platforms – print, broadcast and social – to come forward with better alternatives to the Cord Manifesto of 2013. He must sharpen his image and role as leader of the Opposition and not waver on key national interest issues.
The Cord leader’s objectives should be distinct. He must be his own centre of power and must resist the temptation to work closely with Uhuru in a manner likely to complicate his role as leader of Opposition.
Fifth, Raila must mobilize his support base to register en masse as voters. And after registering, they must be encouraged to come out and vote. With another poor voter turnout, the 2017 dream will remain still-born.
Finally, Raila must develop a non-interventionist approach on UhuRuto’s affairs and, by extension, allow Jubilee to cannibalize itself. Based on adverse revelations within Jubilee in its eight months in power, I believe that we will be witnessing some deep infighting between Uhuru and Ruto’s allies that could eventually lead to the disintegration of the ruling coalition.
Like Narc in 2007 and ODM in 2013, Jubilee could fight itself lame and crumble, providing Raila with a perfect chance to mount a final, serious assault at becoming President.
Willis Alala is a Development Analyst at New York University.
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