As the US extends its global terrorism alert to include embassies and consulates in the Middle East and Africa, this is an appropriate time to examine the state of al Qaeda and its affiliate al Shabaab in Somalia. Fareed Zakaria explains that al Qaeda is becoming a something more akin to a franchise and is flourishing in places where there is weak government, including Somalia.
Al Shabaab has been waging a war in Somalia for nearly a decade. Its depredations have also spilled over to Somalia’s neighbours – persuading Kenya and Uganda to send troops (Amisom) to contain its threat and uproot it from the inside. After years of relentless pursuit, the Amisom force gained the upper hand, forcing al Shabaab to abandon its positions in Mogadishu and other key cities such as Kismayo.
Of late, al Shabaab’s desperation has grown visibly. It is resorting to a more lethal but asymmetrical form of guerrilla warfare, which could be the real strength and danger of al Shabaab 2.0.
There is clear indication of a reformed organisation that is truly committed to returning and rebranding itself.
In a recent audio message, Ahmed Godane, al Shabaab’s operational brain, made it clear he is determined to reform the organisation’s structure. That includes plans to install a whole new generation that can interact with fast moving Jihadist warfare.
Unlike al Shabaab 1.0, the upgraded al Shabaab is likely to include a new generation of recruiters – mostly youths who have Western exposure, understand their vulnerabilities, speak their language and, most important of all, appeal to the coming generation.
This is already evident in new footage released by al Shabaab that features three young Somali-Americans who migrated from the US to engage in Jihadi war in Somalia. The video, The Path to Paradise: From the Twin Cities to the Land of Migration is part of an al Qaeda-approved propaganda outreach to communicate with the next generation.
In what sounded like a victory speech, and his first in the post coup era, Godane demonstrated his role in providing new leadership to al Shabaab. The coup involved the execution of some senior Al Shabaab leaders including Ibrahim Afghani and reportedly the American-born Omar Hammaami.
Prior to Godane’s coup, al Shabaab had a relatively decentralised leadership, relaying its orders in a top-down hierarchical fashion. With Godane in sole command, al Shabaab will probably put an end the discord that dogged the organisation for the better part of the last two years.
While still diffuse and complex, its structural authority is now highly centralised, but operations are loosely decentralised. Many analysts believe that the focus will now be on ‘the near enemy’—the Somalia government, Amisom, Turkey and their affiliates—instead of ‘the far enemy’—Kenya, Uganda and the West. The recent attack on the Turkish mission in Mogadishu may be an indication of this change in policy.
However, the organisation is financially broke and militarily weak. Godane will be forced to continue to rely heavily on al Qaeda’s ideological guidelines and, perhaps more critically, its fund-raising support. In many ways, al Shabaab needs al Qaeda more than al Qaeda needs al Shabaab.
Unfortunately, the government in Mogadishu, backed by the UK and US, is institutionally weak and has scant capacity to contain this growing threat. Current policies, which inadvertently fuel clan frustration, only serve to increase the likelihood of the group’s successful re-emergence.
Abdihakim Ainte is Somali researcher and analyst. This was first published on the African Arguments website.
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