Why Uhuru, Ruto deal must wait

By Alex Ndegwa and Martin Mutua

NAIROBI, KENYA: Coalition talks between Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto have slackened because of their competing interests and precautions both sides have taken to avert a raw deal.

The negotiations by National Alliance presidential aspirant and United Democratic Party flag-bearer have apparently run into the harder part of who else should be brought on board and both sides seemingly are not agreed on this aspect. 

With three weeks to the statutory deadline for parties to submit their pre-election coalition agreements, and with URP facing challenges in marketing a URP-TNA alliance in Rift Valley, the Ruto side is now working on a strategy to have this deadline extended.

The disagreements have reportedly caused tension between the two groups; making it necessary for them buy time to let the sticky issues be ironed out.

As an indicator of their unease and dissatisfaction with the direction the negotiations is taking, URP reportedly did not send representatives to a delegation Uhuru has been leading to meet regional Presidents over The Hague case facing him and Ruto.

Uhuru who has embarked on shuttle diplomacy to endear his team to the regional leaders ahead of the March 4 elections has seen his team visit Tanzania’s President Jakaya Kikwete, Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunzinza and the latest being South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir.

There are also plans to visit Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni in the next few days.

The Standard learnt URP is apprehensive that new entrants to the mooted alliance, apparently through TNA, are driving away Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper Democratic Movement and United Democratic Front aspirant, Mr Musalia Mudavadi.

Potential ally

Sources within the two sides revealed the stand-off, which they anticipate would be resolved quickly, revolved around URP’s demand that the agreement cannot be signed until it has factored in Kalonzo and Musalia. This way they argued they would be assured of a win in the first round.

However, officially both Kalonzo and Musalia, though having their own negotiations for an alliance, have maintained they are in the presidential race and won’t back out.

However, the so-called new entrants into the G7 Alliance — Water Minister Charity Ngilu and Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo — are reportedly pressing for a quick deal to be sealed in order to lock out Kalonzo.

Equally, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, who is a member of New Ford Kenya and was earlier, perceived to be Uhuru’s running mate, is also reportedly in a hurry to seal a deal that will see Mudavadi also locked out.

Alongside Nominated MP Musikari Kombo with whom he shares a party and who has also been in Uhuru’s delegation to the regional heads, Wamalwa has bitter political rivalry with Mudavadi for the Western Kenya, which each claims to command. It’s also what they have been using to cast themselves as a potential ally other aspirants should look out for.

 “TNA is falling into Ngilu-Kiema machinations to undermine Kalonzo,” said an MP close to Ruto. “URP does not approve of these schemes to intimidate the VP and Uhuru has been briefed on the same,” he went on.

The MP, who cannot be quoted for fear of repercussions within the party, revealed URP skipped Uhuru’s missions to regional leaders.

“While URP had representatives during the visit to Tanzania, the party was not represented in the recent visits to Bujumbura, Burundi, and Juba,” added the legislator.

At the same time another MP in the Uhuru camp who preferred anonymity told The Standard the threat by both Mudavadi and Kalonzo to form their own alliance was not auguring well within their camp.

“There is the feeling that if let to go their way, the two could destabilise our game plan because after their campaigns, if they were to join the ODM team, this would complicate matters for us,” argued the MP. 

However, Cabinet minister Dr Naomi Shaban, an ally of Uhuru, exuded confidence the TNA-URP team had nothing to fear. Shaban told The Standard that as the days go by with new alliances coming up, they too were devising new strategies to counter them. “We are not just watching what is happening. The more things change the more we up our ground game to raise the bar and we have nothing to worry as we know how we are placed,” she added.

Sharing of positions

During the first trip for talks with regional heads, Medical Services Assistant minister Kazungu Kambi represented URP in Uhuru delegation. But Uhuru flew to Burundi’s capital-Bujumbura, with Wamalwa, Ngilu and Kiema among other MPs.

The other dispute between URP-TNA reportedly revolves around the criteria for sharing of positions in the coalition structure because the late entrants have upset initial proposals.

There is also a standoff over how parties plan to share funding given to parties by the State through the Consolidated Fund. The two sides are reportedly wary of a situation like that which hit the Party of National Unity when Narc-Kenya’s aspirant Martha Karua pulled out her party and went ahead to get her share of funding from the State. 

Sources further say no conclusive deal can be sealed yet on how government positions would be distributed within the coalition given efforts to reach out to Kalonzo and Mudavadi are still ongoing and their interests must also be taken care of if they have to be won over. 

The public statements by both Kalonzo and Mudavadi to disown reports of discussions with Prime Minister Raila Odinga have reportedly downplayed the suspicions from the other group.

It is against this background that URP came up with the strategy of moving forward the December 4 deadline for parties to deposit their pre-election coalition agreements.

Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto — an ally of Mr William Ruto — confirmed the proposed amendment seeks to push the date for signing the pre-coalition pacts to January next year.

While it is believed it would enjoy the support of majority of members of the House, which reopens on Tuesday, there are concerns about the implication on other electoral timelines.

Verify legality

Education Minister Mutula Kilonzo, who served as Justice Minister, argues there is a reason why it was decided the agreements be deposited three months before elections. He argued the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission needs the time to verify the legality of the coalitions to contest various elective seats and plan for electoral materials, including ballot papers.

“Although I don’t support it, I know for a fact if such an amendment comes to the House when it reconvenes next week it will surely pass because of interests MPs have on the postponement,” he added.

“Supposing a coalition comes a day before the elections and doesn’t qualify in accordance with Article 92 of the Constitution that governs political parties what would happen?” asked Mutula.