Unlikely two-horse race begins to take shape

By KIPKOECH TANUI

When schools closed, we boys set up hunting groups as a sport and economic activity to supplement the sukuma wiki menu in our mother’s kitchen.

Tasks were allocated according to age, speed and experience. You picked guys you knew would not shortchange you when the kill is made and those who you were confident knew how to use the bow and arrow well, and therefore, would not miss the target and probably even harm a member of the hunting team. 

Like our politicians should be doing as they seek pre-election agreements that assure them a fair share of the kill, the boys also kept off the untrustworthy and gluttons with past records of mischief and fraud. They joined groups in which they would at worst go home with a piece of leg or rib, not going back to Mama empty-handed.

Yes, as a country, elections is around the corner and the hunting parties are oiling their guns and sharpening their arrows as they all seek to have as many fast, experienced and endowed partners on their side.

What we have witnessed over the last few weeks is a lesson in the politics of sycophancy, where your mouth spits at the faces your tribal kings point. For, in politics as they say, there are no permanent enemies but interests.

As we speak, there are four possible flanks taking shape. There is the wing led by Prime Minister Raila Odinga, that though it has suffered political haemorrhage, still can’t be written off. That is incontestable since all opinion polls put him at the top, and still, you can’t rule out either of the aspirants joining him when all else looks bleak.

That us probably why he still has a vacant position of running mate. It may seem implausible but not entirely unrealistic or even hypothetical that we can still see him ending up with Mr Musalia Mudavadi or Mr Kalonzo Musyoka.

Wait a minute! So you believe the political nonsense that Raila cannot work with either of them again? Or that Mudavadi and Kalonzo will fight to the bitter end? It is possible but again they might not.  Why? Politics is a practical game and the politicians even more practical. That’s why Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto are together even though some can ask if shared common fate over The Hague should be the only basis for a political coalition rather than governance issues.

But, as I have said here before, politicians are wiser than our women who kiss a thousand frogs before they meet Mr Perfect; them they kiss even a million frogs so long us the scent of power and influence hangs around.

If you thought Kalonzo and Mudavadi haven’t sensed some sparkle has gone off their own campaigns, ask yourselves what they have been discussing on their own. It must be in appreciation they are standing in sinking sand. Uhuru and Ruto are beckoning them over because they have also noticed.

The more it gets clear Uhuru and Ruto will run, and with the delayed judgment on whether they can with crimes against charges hanging on their necks, the sooner you see Mudavadi and Kalonzo who stand to benefit the most getting cosier.

If the second flank that may firm up, split one way to Raila and another to Uhuru, or even both switch to the side of Kenyatta’s scion, is the Kalonzo-Mudavadi axis, then the third is Uhuru-Ruto.

Silent rebellion

Probably because of two uncertainties, Ruto more than Uhuru is more keen to get Mudavadi and Kalonzo to The National Alliance-United Republican Party coalition by whatever name it shall get after the grass grows over G7 Alliance grave. The first uncertainty is ICC, and the second, the Kalenjin silent rebellion against being pushed up Mt Kenya in 2002, down to Lake Victoria in 2007 and up the mountain again in 2012, by a common figure. Of course in 2002 he was singing someone else’s song but he did it perfectly and ended up with part of his shoe.

In the fourth flank and beyond you will find the solo hunters who have decided even if it means defeat they will be on their own. In this corner you have, true to her abrasive character Martha Karua, the straight-shooting Prof James ole Kiyiapi and the dabbling Mr Peter Kenneth.

The problem with the second flank is, depending on circumstances over which they have no control over; they may just decide to change the political contest their way by the decision of whom they shall team up with. On this, do not underrate them, and that is why even the latest poll said they could change Raila’s fortunes, of course with a cut for themselves.

I guess Ruto and Uhuru, who seemingly are in a race to win the Nobel prize for chemistry by shattering the notion water and oil do not mix, after years of rubbishing this theorem, have taken note and are in a rush to bring them under TNA-URP roof. But they can only come if it is clear they will be running mate and candidate if the big two are not running. But Charity Ngilu and Eugene Wamalwa have already got into the Uhuru kraal and taken up all the good seats except one Ruto has been warming up.

Whichever way the realignment goes it is looking more likely — unless the courts mess up the party —we are in for a two-horse race between the sons of Kenya’s first President Jomo Kenyatta and his VP Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

In the meantime the ‘boys’ are organising their hunting groups and the criteria is the same; you only take along those you trust, who can share the kill equitably and who have the experience to deliver.

The writer is Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard.

ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke