What are Mudavadi’s chances in race for State House?

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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, September 29  2012 at  18:44

IN SUMMARY

• There’s been speculation – most of it plausible – that Mr Mudavadi dumped ODM and Mr Odinga at the urging of State House gurus. Mr Kibaki’s operatives thought Mr Mudavadi was good insurance policy in case Mr Kenyatta couldn’t – or shouldn’t – run.
• It seems that the die has been cast – their predictions have likely come true. Jomo’s son will mostly probably bow out, leaving Mr Mudavadi as Mr Kibaki’s “chosen one”. There’s no turning back.
• ODM and PM Raila Odinga put on a brave face when Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi ditched them.

After the March 4, 2013 General Election, there will be a new incumbent in State House. And his name won’t be Mwai Kibaki.

The list of the next occupant for the House on the Hill is short – very short.

I am not a betting man, but my guess is that there are three plausible candidates – VP Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

Gichugu MP Martha Karua has a slight chance – very slight – of slipping through. I have concluded that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto won’t run. And, even if they do, they won’t make it. I have also concluded that Mr Mudavadi is a man who bears close watching.

Mr Mudavadi was left for dead when he ditched ODM. Only time will tell whether he made a wise decision. The early returns are mixed. But there’s growing evidence that Mr Mudavadi may become Mr Odinga’s biggest obstacle in his march to State House.

There’s been speculation – most of it plausible – that Mr Mudavadi dumped ODM and Mr Odinga at the urging of State House gurus. Mr Kibaki’s operatives thought Mr Mudavadi was good insurance policy in case Mr Kenyatta couldn’t – or shouldn’t – run.

It seems that the die has been cast – their predictions have likely come true. Jomo’s son will mostly probably bow out, leaving Mr Mudavadi as Mr Kibaki’s “chosen one”. There’s no turning back.

ODM and PM Raila Odinga put on a brave face when Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi ditched them. They were disappointed, but not devastated. That’s because they were operating from a script in which Mr Kenyatta figured to be Mr Odinga’s primary opponent.

They were confident that in a one-on-one contest with Mr Kenyatta, Mr Odinga would emerge victorious. More so if no candidate garnered over 50 per cent of the vote and a runoff was held between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga.

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But this theory has disintegrated because it looks like Mr Kenyatta won’t be on the ballot. The ethnic calculus that would favour Mr Odinga in a contest with Mr Kenyatta doesn’t work with Mr Mudavadi.

I am afraid that Kenyans are likely – as they have in years past – to vote largely as ethnic blocs. This is regrettable, but the reality of our politics. Even more distressing is that ethnic kingpins are likely to “herd” the communities from which they hail to vote like a flock.

If this is true – and there’s no reason to think otherwise – who benefits if Mr Kenyatta leaves the field and Mr Mudavadi becomes the project of the Kikuyu elite around Mr Kibaki?

The same is true if Mr Ruto quits the race. Who stands to harvest the Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes – the first and third largest ethnic voting blocs? This becomes gargantuan if these communities largely vote as a bloc.

It’s true that Mr Odinga can’t count on the Kikuyu vote. His negatives in that community – which has no history of voting for outsider presidential candidates – are very high. He’s been demonised – maliciously and incorrectly – as the author of Mr Kenyatta’s woes at the International Criminal Court.

Besides, the bad blood between the Luo and the Kikuyu goes back to the fallout between Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

The assassination of Mr Tom Mboya, a man thought to have been a shoo-in as Mzee Kenyatta’s successor, solidified the rift. PM Odinga’s titanic contest against Mr Kibaki in 2007 – which almost sent Kenya to hell – hardened feelings between the two groups.

What does this mean? The likely outcome is that unless Mr Kenyatta upends Mr Kibaki’s stranglehold over the Kikuyu vote, Mr Mudavadi would inherit that voting bloc.

But that’s only if Mr Kibaki’s handlers treat Mr Kenyatta shabbily as they ask him to quit the race. If they do, Mr Kenyatta would likely back someone else apart from Mr Mudavadi.

Mr Ruto is also likely to back Mr Mudavadi – and turn over the Kalenjin vote to him – once he bows out. That’s because he’s become an implacable foe for Mr Odinga. Strangely, Mr Ruto and his erstwhile mentor, former President Daniel arap Moi, would both back Mr Mudavadi. This would put Mr Mudavadi in the driver’s seat.

Under this scenario, VP Musyoka would be a non-factor. In fact, he would fare very badly because he’s being challenged for the Kamba vote by Water minister Charity Ngilu who has declared her presidential bid. The Kamba may very well decide in this scenario to support a horse that’s likely to win – either Mr Mudavadi or PM Odinga. But all this isn’t good news for Mr Odinga.

I don’t see a path for victory for Mr Odinga against Mr Mudavadi if the son of Budamba is backed by the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin. Three regions – the Coast, Nairobi, and North Eastern – are unlikely to vote like blocs. That’s why the big five groups could be decisive.

This hypothesis assumes that Kenyans will vote in their ethnic cocoons. They may not. But even more significantly, this scenario assumes that Kenyans don’t want real change, but the status quo.

This is where Mr Mudavadi could run into trouble. The man has no reformist history. He can’t make a case to be more reformist than Mr Odinga. Nor can he make the case that he’s ever been his own man.

If Kenyans come to believe that he’s been orchestrated by a secret cabal, then his goose will be cooked. He won’t win the presidency on ethnic math alone.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC