Which way for big race losers?

By VITALIS KIMUTAI and PETER OPIYO

Presidential party nominations may end up being tickets to oblivion for those fighting to succeed President Kibaki because the Constitution robbed the losers the soft-landing Kenyans are used to.

Not only has the Constitution taken away the many short-cuts losers exploited to get back to public life and gainful employment after defeat, but it has also guaranteed many of them will be in the cold until the next election cycle — if age, relevance and resources — still allow.

Because it is either victory or consignment to the political cooler for five years, the battle for State House next year is, therefore, a do-or-die affair.

Of course the other alternative for those who think they may lose could be offering themselves as running mates of those they deem to have a better chance to win, for the same Constitution guarantees that in this way, one will be automatically become the Deputy President.

Unlike in the past, there is no chance that the losers can in any way find their way back into Cabinet firstly because this is now no-go-zone for politicians, and secondly, the holders of these posts have been brought down to between 14 and 21 and all will be vetted by Parliament.

So even the mere prospect of a Presidential bid loser being vetted by ordinary MPs for a junior post, even though not open to them, must be unsettling for those seeking to rule Kenya next.

That means that Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Deputy Prime Ministers Musalia Mudavadi and Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa, Gichugu MP Martha Karua, Former PS James ole Kiyiapi, Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, and Gachoka MP Mutava Musyimi, face the risk of being left in the political cold if they go ahead and vie for the top job then lose.

But of course only one or two of them may survive the prospect of political oblivion or peripheral influence in Kenyan politics once outside Parliament and Cabinet, if they team up and end up the winning pair.

The only window they could exploit is to include their names on party nomination lists so that they are considered for nomination under the special interests rule where, probably, they could offer themselves as party leaders.

It, however, remains to be seen how a presidential candidate could expose himself to ridicule by accepting to be nominated as a backbench Member of Parliament.

Again, parties are expected to deposit a list of names they expect to nominate with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission before the general elections, meaning the traditional row over who should be nominated could be fought out even before elections, a fact that could put the presidential candidates in a difficult position.

And that makes the possibility of presidential losers being elected party leaders very unlikely unless they ensure they are nominated to Parliament. As the adage goes, that is being between a rock and a very hard place.

Also, under the new law, presidential candidates cannot be appointed to public office as is the case now, unlike in 2002 and 2007 whose losers are to be found in senior public service offices and diplomatic posts abroad.

It was common in the past, for those who lost elections to be appointed to ambassadorial positions and posted to high profile stations like London, Washington, Paris, Beijing and Moscow.

The common practice of candidates rejected by voters getting appointed either as directors or chairmen of parastatal organisations also belongs to the past.

Above all, losers in presidential elections cannot also become Senator, Governor or MP because they cannot contest for two seats at the same time.

So what happens to the great men and women who have declared that they will be going for the big office whatever the outcome?

Among all presidential candidates, it is only Raila who has publicly indicated that the Presidency is not a matter of life and death because he can engage in other business.

In public view, Raila would appear more like a fish out of water if he were to be seen something else other than master politician charging crowds at political rallies. But a few months ago, the Langata MP said it was not mandatory for him to be President.

On a lighter note but in response to his critics who argued he was keen to claim power through whatever means, Raila sarcastically said he could as well eke a living selling Mandazi in Kibera. But Raila like some of the other moneyed aspirants could retreat into his personal business empire.

Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will probably return to his law firm at Musyoka and Wambua Advocates or get into farming or business.

The VP bid his constituents goodbye two weeks ago, whom he has represented in Parliament for 27 years, urging them to identify a leader to take over from him. In May, Kalonzo said he would retire and venture into farming if he was beaten in the next General Election.

Uhuru also declared losing an election was not the end of the road for him as he had also lost in the 2002 General Election but was not consigned to the political dustbin. “The race is not a matter of life and death. I lost before and conceded defeat honourably which became a unifying factor in the country,” Uhuru said.

Speaking in Turkana recently Uhuru accused leaders who did not concede defeat of having brought about the 2008 post-election violence.

Mr Munyori Buku, the DPM’s spokesman on Monday said Uhuru was in the race for the long haul and was not eyeing any other position.

“Uhuru is selling his policies and credentials to the people of Kenya and he is happy that they are positively receiving his message. They have seen what he is capable of doing based on his stint at the Treasury,” Munyori told The Standard.

Uhuru’s options include taking charge of a large family business empire, which includes banking, real estate, farming, and food processing, and the hotel industry, among others.

Ruto according to the United Republican Party (URP) and his close allies would not be gunning for any other position in the next General Election. “For Ruto, the Presidency is all he has his eyes on. Being the consistent politician that he his, he does not want to be distracted by any other position or sideshows,” Dujis MP Aden Duale who is the URP spokesman said.

“I can tell you for sure that URP will get more than 100 seats in Parliament and will control both the National Assembly and the Senate,” Duale said.

Duale added: “If you do not win the Presidency and you become the Majority Party Leader, you will be a powerful leader with a say on how the government is run.”

Should he not make it, Ruto will also concentrate on his fairly large business in insurance, farming and real estate.

Jirongo said if he does not win the Presidency in the first round, he would definitely play the kingmaker role in the run-off. “I will sit with like-minded leaders and negotiate for the party to play a role in government. It is not just negotiations for positions but embracement of our manifesto as well by the government to be formed,” said Jirongo.

Karua is a seasoned lawyer and has the option of going back to her legal business should she lose.

Musyimi could return to the pulpit while Kenneth could go back into his private sector management and choose to concentrate on his business.

Mudavadi too is a wealthy businessman in his own right and like Ruto, Raila, Uhuru, and Raila and may, like them, choose to concentrate on business while preparing for the 2017 race if circumstances will allow — but that is in case he loses.