Tension mounting over Kibaki succession

By OSCAR OBONYO

President Kibaki marks the last Grand Coalition Government anniversary in office the day after tomorrow, amid growing tension over his political succession.

It has been a race against time for the 80-year-old leader, as he tries to juggle different balls, including keeping alive presidential bids of his closest confidants and those he is politically indebted to, while at the same time securing his legacy.

With the stakes so high, the President has discarded his laidback mien to pull strings on the political events of the moment. Opinion is divided as to whether Kibaki is doing this for politics’ sake or out of deep interest to secure his future after vacating office.

Kofi Annan with members of the Serena Eight team who helped in coming up with the National Accord. [PHOTO: FILE/STANDARD]

Of great fragility is prosecution evidence at the International Criminal Courts (ICC) linking two of his key allies – Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and former Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura to a State House meeting with members of the outlawed mungiki sect.

State House has not only denied and dissociated itself with such a move, but Internal Security minister, George Saitoti recently warned politicians against speculative comments linking the President to ICC trials. Prof Saitoti had reportedly met the President at his Harambee House Office before addressing the Press.

Another pointer to Kibaki’s keen interest in the goings-on is his swift move to bridge the rift between Vice- President Kalonzo Musyoka and his colleagues in the G7 Alliance – Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

But even more curious was the President’s move, three months ago, of staging a spirited two-day campaign for a by-election civic ward candidate in his Othaya constituency. The action by the President, who hardly campaigns even for parliamentary candidates from his party, baffled.

"While it is doubtful that the President will single out his preferred successor, it clearly emerging that he is keen on events in his political party. Chances are that he will be backing candidates from his political outfit," says Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister, Mutula Kilonzo. Revisiting the rare civic ward campaign, Macharia Munene who teaches History and International Relations at United States International University, says the example demonstrates how passionate the political events are to him.

"This was one of those special cases where Kibaki had to move in swiftly to guard his political constituency against infiltration by (Mwangi) Kiunjuri’s GNU party. Viewed from this point, again, one realises the President is keen on the succession games around him," says Prof Munene.

Former Cabinet minister Amukowa Anangwe adds that the President’s political intentions are betrayed by his latest push to fill national security and other crucial offices with individuals believed to be associated with him.

This, he points out, was also evident in his initial hurried move to fill in positions of constitutional offices of Chief Justice, Attorney General, Director of Public Prosecutions, and Controller of the Budget without mutual agreement with his co-principal, Raila, or without following due process.

"You can tell from Kibaki’s hasty move that he has clear interests in those offices, which are crucial in guaranteeing one’s legacy and security while out of office," says Dr Anangwe.

Those nominated by the President in January last year included Justice Alnashir Visram as the Chief Justice, Prof Githu Muigai as Attorney General, Kioko Kilukumi as Director of Public Prosecutions, and William Kirwa as Controller of Budget.

His rejuvenated political activity notwithstanding, Kibaki has kept everyone guessing with regard to his preferred successor. With his co-principal Raila, principal deputy Kalonzo, apparent heir in his central Kenya backyard Uhuru, and his PNU party boss Saitoti, angling for his nod, Kibaki has kept all busy and hopeful.

His recent "rescue" of Kalonzo, coupled with closeness to Uhuru and Saitoti, has left the trio puzzled. On the other hand, Raila, who is the only politician outside the President’s PNU Alliance, has been hobnobbing with Kibaki’s associates, including Chancellor of the University of Nairobi, Joe Wanjui, and the late former minister, Njenga Karume.

"He is just balancing out the game by acting fair to all his confidants. Kibaki’s core interest is to proceed to a peaceful retirement," observes Munene.

Nonetheless, Munene says the club of central Kenya’s super-rich is not known to back anyone on account of ideology, but rather selfish economic interests:

"If in their projection they have decided that Raila presidency is good for them, then they would work tirelessly towards that direction. But that does not necessarily mean Kibaki has a hand in the move."

Munene and Anangwe agree that Kibaki "is not the type to stick out his neck for anybody other than himself". They say he may therefore be playing his cards for personal reasons. Some politicians, who have alleged during public rallies, that the President could be in troubled if his rivals succeeded him, have mainly advanced this position.

"I fully understand the pressure created by ICC developments. But as is in the Holy book, it is not the problems that one faces, but rather how he handle them that matters," says Mutula.

As a lawyer and Justice minister in the Kibaki Government, Mutula says he is convinced the President has absolutely nothing to worry about once he leaves office. In the same vein, however, he regrets that the President allowed himself to drawn into the ICC proceedings by drafting a statement in defence of Muthaura.

"But that is now water under the bridge. What is worth noting, though, is that as a country we have carried out tangible institutional reforms, especially the Judiciary, and Kenya may have a good case to handle any matters coming up in future from within," Mutula told The Standard On Sunday.

The minister further argues that ICC is not a political process and it will accordingly not handle political mistakes: "Anybody therefore trying to drag the name of the President into this matter is only but eroding Kibaki’s legacy."

Meanwhile, a section of leaders from central Kenya have advised President Kibaki against ‘anointing’ anybody to be his heir. MPs Njoroge Baiya (Githunguri), David Ngugi (Kinangop) and FT Nyammo (Tetu) said Kibaki should let presidential aspirants to market themselves to Kenyans.

Baiya said that the principles of democracy dictate that the outgoing President should ensure that the law is followed during transition.

"Any leader who intends to run for president should not expect support from the President. A leader should come out of the crowd and illustrate to Kenyans that he is capable of leading the country," said Nyammo.

He noted that the wealth and development success that has been set by Kibaki in his 10-year rule requires a committed and ‘clean’ leader to sustain: "We do not want a case where someone fronts another leader who can come in and destroy the success."

"Kenyans are able to weigh the presidential candidates by their development records in constituencies or ministries they led. All we want to have is a person of integrity and one who will continue with the record set by Kibaki," he said.

Mwea MP Peter Gitau said Kenyans do not need to be told who to elect, saying they were able to make a rightful decision: "All that counts in any election, with or without anybody’s support, is the public preference".

— Additional reporting by Job Weru