By Standard Team
After the verdict on the confirmation charges indicted four Kenyans, focus now shifts on President Kibaki for whom the latest development presents several challenges.
Two of his most trusted allies – former Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta – are among the four set to face charges before the ICC. The other two are Eldoret MP William Ruto and radio presenter Joshua arap Sang.
Muthaura was the pillar of the Kibaki administration. He brought a wealth of experience as a diplomat and insider in the former regime, to show the President the ropes of Government. With such a trusted ally, the President would delegate and Government would run well.
Muthaura was very powerful that in the initial squabbles in the Coalition Government, ODM saw him as either rivaling or overshadowing the Prime Minister.
Political pundits say it would be almost impossible for someone, even the acting Head of Public Service, Francis Kimemia, to fit into his shoes.
Confirmation of charges also complicates his succession. Even though President Kibaki has not publicly endorsed Uhuru, the deputy premier has inherited the Central and Mt Kenya voting block from the President.
Uhuru’s rating has been rising partly because recent opinion polls have dropped Kibaki from their questionnaires.
The President could be toying with the possibility of a new kitchen Cabinet to fill in the void that has been left by Muthaura while his political allies will have to go to the drawing board to scout for a political successor who will not only win the support of Central and Mt Kenya region, but also have a national appeal.
Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University said the issue of Uhuru stepping down, as Deputy Prime Minister, is a tight one for the President.
"Uhuru was appointed Deputy Prime Minister as the chairman of Kanu, and a leader of a political party. The position goes with that criteria."
The latest developments have also triggered protest by ODM, which is contesting the decision to have Uhuru retain his position as Deputy Prime Minister.
National accord
The party claims Prime Minister Raila Odinga was not consulted in the appointment of Kimemia, a contravention of provisions of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008.
Such complaints can easily raise political temperatures at a time the country is seeking to push on with reforms and President Kibaki has to carefully manage the coalition so that it does not collapse before the country is ready for the General Election.
But according to international law expert Geoffrey Musila, the possibility of dissolution of Government in the current circumstances is remote.
Dr Musila says that any attempt to hurry the country to a premature election would be fraught with legal and constitutional challenges.
"Legally, it is unlikely anybody would want to have an election without proper preparation and institutions," he says.
University of Nairobi lecturer Adams Oloo said while it may be convenient for President Kibaki to have elections after January 2013 to put his political house in order, someone might go to court claiming he is in office illegally.
This is because his term of office expires on December 30.
"As he goes out he does not want to see his legacy tainted through an illegality challenge in court," he said, adding that the President has to balance his options.
He said it is likely that the two principals may have to decide to dissolve the Coalition Government to have elections in December.
Kibaki will also be pondering how to deal with the allegations by the ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo that representatives of the outlawed group Mungiki visited State House in the run-up to the 2007 elections.
Former director of the Committee of Experts that drafted the new Constitution, Ekuru Aukot, acknowledges the President is walking on thin ice as The Hague process unfolds.
"Of course, yes. A case can be brought against him. Evidence can also incriminate him," Dr Aukot says of President’s vulnerability following the ICC ruling.
On Friday Police Commissioner Matthew Iteere released the names of the 33 people who attended the meeting at State House on November 26, 2007. He was disputing the claim there was a meeting with Mungiki representatives in State House. He clarified that the 33 were representatives of various youth lobby groups.
Post-election cases
With the four suspects set to face charges at The Hague, there are now renewed calls to try other suspects locally.
And, further, the Attorney General Githu Muigai announced plans to initiate a local judicial process on Post-Election Violence cases, as a division of the High Court.
On Saturday, we established that Chief Justice Willy Mutunga has convened a meeting of the Judicial Service Commission on Monday. The issue of creating a special division of the High Court to deal with PEV will feature at the meeting.
"Yes, we have a meeting on Monday and the issue of a special division of the high court on PEV will be raised there," said a member of the commission.
President Kibaki will also be cracking his head on how to ensure that IDPs are resettled before he leaves office. Up to Sh10 billion has been pumped into resettlement of IDPs, but four years on, some of the displaced are still languishing in makeshift camps. This is one issue that threatens to blot his legacy.
Prof Munene said the failure to resettle IDPs is a disgrace. He, however, says that because it is a political issue Kibaki and Raila may try to resettle the IDPs before the General Election.
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