Posted Saturday, July 30 2011 at 18:48
Every Tom, Dick and Harry — or Kamau, Adongo and Hussein, if you like — is running to succeed President Mwai Kibaki in State House next year. I can’t fault the wannabes — it’s their constitutional right.
Although I must note, tongue-in-cheek, that some of them think it’s their birthright to run for president. I don’t want to demagogue the “constitutional obligation” for citizens to run for office.
The fact is that someone has to run otherwise we won’t have “rulers”. Which begs the question — who’s for real, and who’s faking it? My take on the matter is that it would be a mistake to dismiss former Kabete MP Paul Muite, the latest man to throw his hat in the ring.
I have three reasons why Mr Muite is a “dangerous” candidate. But before I do, let me dispense with some vexing matters. I have noted with much concern that there’s too much testosterone in the presidential sweepstakes.
Marginalised women
I don’t believe the field of contenders for State House is covered by the “one-third gender principle”.
But there are simply too many male candidates. Even with Gichugu MP Martha Karua — the lone woman in the field who’s probably worth more than a few men — she’s still one woman.
Why aren’t there more women aspirants? Kenya has so marginalised women that they dare not even think of being the principal tenants at the house on the hill. That must change.
Now back to Mr Muite. The first reason anyone would be foolhardy to write Mr Muite off is because the man is a force of nature.
Those who’ve worked closely with him know Mr Muite’s relentless determination, quick and strategic mind, fearlessness, and strength of character.
Among the Young Turks, he was regarded as the heir apparent to the late opposition doyen Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.
That’s why he was Ford-Kenya’s vice-chairman. His image suffered when Goldenberg architect Kamlesh Pattni implicated him.
However, through thick and thin — and especially during his lowest ebbs — Mr Muite has always stood tall. The man is made of stern stuff. That’s why his opponents had better watch out.
The second reason Mr Muite cannot be overlooked is because of Kenya’s tribalised politics. It’s true that Kenyans are unlikely to elect a Kikuyu to the State House — right after Mr Kibaki — but it could happen.
Political scene
Let’s hypothesise that Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta, the declared Kikuyu “muthamaki” (“king”), is knocked out of the political scene by the International Criminal Court in September. We’d be foolish not to speculate how the “Kikuyu vote” would line up.
That’s why he was Ford-Kenya’s vice-chairman. His image suffered when Goldenberg architect Kamlesh Pattni implicated him.
However, through thick and thin — and especially during his lowest ebbs — Mr Muite has always stood tall. The man is made of stern stuff. That’s why his opponents had better watch out.
The second reason Mr Muite cannot be overlooked is because of Kenya’s tribalised politics. It’s true that Kenyans are unlikely to elect a Kikuyu to the State House — right after Mr Kibaki — but it could happen.
Political scene
Let’s hypothesise that Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta, the declared Kikuyu “muthamaki” (“king”), is knocked out of the political scene by the International Criminal Court in September. We’d be foolish not to speculate how the “Kikuyu vote” would line up.
Historically, we know that the Kikuyu — like other Kenyans — vote for their “man”. The record shows that, in fact, the Kikuyu have never voted for anyone outside the House of Mumbi. Perhaps this trend will change in 2012, but I highly doubt it.
The reason the Kikuyu may look inwards in 2012 is their distrust for all the “outsider” candidates. With Mr Kenyatta out, only Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, an ethnic cousin, is a possibility.
But the Kikuyu think that the man from Tseikuru is too wishy-washy and a flake. Mr Kenyatta has himself implied in public rallies that Mr Musyoka is a “chameleon”.
This is a death knell for Mr Musyoka. Eldoret North MP William Ruto may be gone to The Hague with Mr Kenyatta.
But even if he’s not, he shouldn’t count on the Kikuyu for support. Too many of them suspect that he may have been their tormentor in the post-election mayhem.
This leaves Prime Minister Raila Odinga as the only credible “outsider”. I think hell may freeze over first before some Kikuyu vote for him. This takes us back to three credible “insiders” — Ms Karua, Mr Muite, and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth.
Ms Karua is a formidable candidate who appeals to many Kenyans. But she’ll have a hard time winning over the Kikuyu chauvinist elite. Mr Kenneth has a future, but it’s not 2012.
This makes the Kikuyu vote a contest between Mr Muite and Ms Karua. It’s possible that Ms Karua could lose the Kikuyu vote to Mr Muite. With the populous Kikuyu vote in his bag, Mr Muite could give Mr Odinga, the presumptive ODM candidate, a run for his money.
The third reason Mr Muite could win it all is because of the structure of the new Constitution.
It’s unlikely that any candidate will win outright in the first round. It will be virtually impossible in a hotly divided country for anyone to sweep over 50 per cent of the popular vote and win more than 25 per cent of the vote in more than half the 47 counties.
This means that there will almost certainly be a runoff among the top vote-getters. Suppose the runoff is between Mr Odinga and Mr Muite? In my view, the contest would be highly tribalised. Who would the Kalenjin and the Akamba vote for? I can see a scenario where Mr Muite beats Mr Odinga.
Integrity test
But Mr Muite’s path to the presidency will be arduous. Like all other contenders, he will have to pass a leadership integrity test. Safina, his party, would need to be rebuilt and “nationalised”.
He then would have to pick a credible running mate. The impressive Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Mohamed (Safina) would make a great choice. But he may have other thoughts.
Mr Muite would then have to win over either the Kikuyu elite or the Kikuyu hoi polloi. Neither would be easy. But Mr Muite’s opponents shouldn’t mistake him for a lion in winter.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.
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