Kenya's Grand Coalition enters its last lap

By Alex Ndegwa Kenya marks three years since the signing of the peace accord on Monday amid political squabbling and tension that are threatening to break the coalition.
And as the Government embarks on the last lap before the General Election, due next year, the question on everyone’s mind is: How will it end?
Only last week, the former United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan, had to step in with a personal letter to President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga urging them to close ranks on the nominations stalemate to lower political temperatures.
Although the President last week withdrew controversial nominations to the positions of Chief Justice, Attorney General, Director of Public Prosecutions and Controller of Budget, analysts believe the political battles are likely to intensify.

Prime Minister Raila odinga

Some aspirants in the coming presidential race have ganged up to stop Raila whom opinion polls show is still the most preferred man for the top job. Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are keen to lock out Raila.
Adams Oloo of the Political Science and Government Department, University of Nairobi, says the past three years have been relatively calm as opposed to the period ahead.
Times ahead will be pretty difficult because of implementation of the new Constitution. This comes at a time the electoral cycle has just kicked off, and the two principals have been forced to go different ways because of political considerations," says Dr Oloo.
The lecturer observes that President Kibaki appears to have identified his own successor other than Raila, and wants to use the Constitution implementation to lay ground for his succession. On the other hand, he says Raila is keen on succeeding Kibaki and accordingly wants to use the same process to get perceived hostile judicial officials out of the way.
"The ceasefire observed last Tuesday when the President withdrew the list of his nominees would be short-lived. It is a lull before the storm. There is real heat ahead," he told The Standard on Sunday.
The Coalition Government was formed on February 28, 2008, after two months of violence that rocked the country following the bungled presidential election of December 2007.
The International Criminal Court is due to rule on indictments sought by Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo against six individuals implicated in the 2007 post-election violence on March 15. This has raised the stakes on an issue that has split the Coalition Government.
PNU is lobbying the UN Security Council to defer Kenya’s ICC cases, but Raila’s ODM wing of the Government has disowned such efforts, saying there was need to first set a credible local mechanism that passes international threshold before seeking a deferral.
Speaking in Western Province on Saturday, Raila paid tribute to the politicians who negotiated the Kenya peace pact in 2008. The members of the Kenya National Dialogue committee who are commonly referred to as the ‘Serena Eight’ were Martha Karua, Sam Ongeri, Sally Kosgey, Moses Wetangula, William Ruto, James Orengo, Mutula Kilonzo and Musalia Mudavadi. The talks were chaired by Annan assisted by Graca Machel, and Tanzania’s former president, Benjamin Mkapa.
Raila regretted that there are politicians who negotiated the National Accord and are now blocking the implementation of the new Constitution.
"We must implement the Constitution before the 2012 General Election. Sadly, there are those who are opposing reforms," he added.
The PNU Secretary General, Kiraitu Murungi, says the cracks in the coalition are not about consultations or lack of it, but rather on gaining advantage for 2012.
"Anyone expecting a quick fix to problems facing the coalition is up for a shock. So long as 2012 elections is hanging above our heads, problems and disagreements would persist."
Plans by the President’s party, PNU, to hold a meeting of its top decision-making organ — the National Delegates Conference — on March 11 to discuss the possibility of the party pulling out of the coalition could further poison the relationship.
The party, backed by ODM MPs allied to Ruto, is also plotting a vote of no confidence against the PM.
Karuti Kanyinga, a political analyst, says the principals have so far done well as they work together.
"They need to cascade that amity through the rank and file of their parties to bring reconciliation and healing to their followers."
Kanyinga says there are Kenyan refugees in Uganda who need to feel safe enough to return home on their own.
Orengo, on his part, says Kenya has covered some ground and the only challenge is that, there are leaders who have not internalised attitude change.
He warns: "These forces have galvanised and they prefer the status quo. They want impunity and injustices of the past to be glossed over. They are many in Parliament and outside."
As the ruling coalition parties wrangle, there is widespread apprehension that the window for enacting reforms is fast closing, as the next General Election draws near.
"The window for passing parliamentary Bills might close by December this year, before campaigns begin. With an uncertain future in national politics, there is little to bind politicians to the principals. Thus, it is vital for most of the Bills to have been passed by then, especially those with a bearing on the General Election," observes the recent report by South Consulting, which assesses progress in implementation of Agenda Four.
The chairman of the Constitution Implementation Oversight Committee, Abdikadir Mohammed, cites the changing political dynamics on both sides of the political divide, the Kibaki succession, power struggle within the Executive, and ICC cases upsetting the political environment, as the key challenges of implementing the new Constitution.
The Mandera Central MP cautions time is running out because as 2012 comes closer, it could become difficult to implement reforms because "every decision would be subjected to quarrels".
"While I thank God the coalition has lasted three years the events of the last two weeks show the fissures and frictions are still intact. We should expect more of that as 2012 comes closer," says Turkana Central MP, Ekwe Ethuro.
ODM Nominated MP, Millie Odhiambo, observes: "There is too much ethnicisation of issues. We politicians have to tone down the bickering. We are at a fragile state and at times I think politicians have forgotten the horrific events of 2007/08."
"We can play politics up to a point and certainly not to play with people’s lives. Let us accommodate each other. Politics is a game of winning, but doing so fairly," adds Ms Odhiambo.
Lawyer Harun Ndubi says politicians should tone down the political rhetoric and channel their efforts to implementing the Constitution.
"The priority now is not competition for power through elections, but implementing the Constitution to moderate management of power. Implementation cannot wait"