Kibaki’s succession battle takes shape

By BEAUTTAH OMANGA

As key political leaders position themselves for next year’s power contest the Kibaki succession battle is finally taking shape.

Political developments in the last two weeks are nothing than a true reflection of a campaign for an anticipated general election.

"Leaders have hit the campaign trail running as if elections are scheduled for this year. By the time election date comes in 2012, Kenyans will simply be exhausted," warned Nominated MP George Nyamweya.

The climax of the 2012 succession hit its crescendo last Friday when President Kibaki for the first time identified himself with a group many have all along felt had his blessings to lock his co-principal, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, out of State House.

Kibaki left his audience guessing as to what he exactly meant when he paraded suspended Education Minister William Ruto and declared that "we agree with all that this man has said".

Mr Ruto had called on Kenyans to join their course of getting a youthful leader to State House. The question in many Kenyans’ mind is whether the President’s nod meant a blessing to have his successor picked from among the Ruto group.

Ruto had also indirectly castigated the PM and declared that they knew where they were coming from and where they were headed.

Joint nominations

Ruto has declared that he was ready to participate in joint nominations with other presidential contenders, namely Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti, in getting a sole presidential candidate to take on others.

President Kibaki’s decision to grace the occasion days after he hosted a group of Rift Valley MPs led by Ruto, all of who coincidently have fallen out with the PM, was telling.

President Kibaki was in Eldoret last Friday where he was received by from left, Henry Kosgey, William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta, and George Saitoti. His decision to grace the occasion was telling. [PHOTO: FILE/STANDARD]

"We had been planning for the event for some time and it was indeed Ruto’s initiative that he hosts President Kibaki. We are happy that the President came as a sign of solidarity with efforts to have a common candidate against Raila come 2012," said Cherangany MP Joshua Kuttuny.

A charged crowd that in a way decided who was to speak and or not forced ODM Chairman Henry Kosgey to almost declare a divorce with his party boss Raila.

But a clever Kosgey, who had days earlier missed an ODM NEC, promised a statement by his colleague Dr Sally Kosgei, reportedly away on official assignment.

While Rift Valley is the epicenter of the Kibaki succession battles, it remains to be seen if President Kibaki will once again be gracing similar anti-Raila rallies planned for other parts of the country.

The battle lines are drawn if the statements made by the pro-Raila team are anything to go by. Speaking in Bondo, several ministers led by Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi came out as a team aggrieved and ready for battle.

The PM has to re-define his strategies and get a serious propaganda team to his side or else be ready to lose it out to the Ruto, Uhuru and now Kibaki axis.

The smart Ruto has already taken on Mudavadi, dismissing him as a leader without vision. Speaking in Western Province, Mudavadi’s political base, Ruto reminded the electorate that they must blame the Sabatia MP for their political disunity.

"If Musalia says he can’t run for presidency because Luhyas are not united, who is to blame," he asked.

Ruto was in essence telling the Luhyas to look beyond Mudavadi and embrace the youthful Wamalwa.

A rally is planned for Nairobi’s Kamukunji Grounds this weekend where Wamalwa will make a loaded statement. If the Saturday rally succeeds, then the youth for change rallying call will be penetrating Nairobi.

Slicing ODM support

"Raila’s undoing remains leaders surrounding him. While the other team has rallies where they jointly attack the PM, those on his side led by Mudavadi simply sit back and wait to appear at Raila’s rallies and praise him while damage is being caused elsewhere," opined a political analyst, Yusuf Maalim.

As at now, Raila has lost Rift Valley and parts of North Eastern Province. Wamalwa, who dictates Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia, is also slicing away ODM’s support in Western.

But Raila has moved in to allay the fears by assuring his concerned supporters that all is well. At almost all the rallies he has been forced to reassure his supporters that his influence was still intact and that he remains the man to beat come 2012.

Cabinet Minister Najib Balala, who is said to have mended fences with the PM, is another man to watch. If Balala is elevated to party chairman, he can be banked on to deliver the Coast vote for Raila.

Kalonzo, too, will be a man to watch. His shuttle diplomacy to have the ICC case deferred may make him a darling of many communities from where the ‘Ocampo six’ hail from.

He has managed to convince the Presidents he has met to team up through the African Union and formally ask the UN to defer the Kenyan case to local mechanisms.

Were that to happen, then the PM will be on the receiving end from the supporters of the six suspects.