The contest in the forthcoming by-election in Matuga has now boiled down to ethnic numbers, and the Kamba community is believed to hold the swing vote.
In the 2007 General Election, the Kamba, who live in the Shimba Hills area, gave UDM’s Kassim Tandaza, who then ran on an ODM-Kenya ticket, 6,000 votes.
And the entry of Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Water minister Charity Ngilu on opposite sides of the campaign is likely to divide the vote in the area where Mr Tandaza was supposed to benefit.
Also the entry of Mutula Isaac Masila, a Kamba, has not made things any easier.
The Vice-President is supporting the PNU candidate, Chirau Ali Mwakwere, while Mrs Ngilu is backing Mr Mwakwere’s archrival Hassan Mwanyoha of ODM.
Two-horse race
Initially, the Matuga contest was deemed a two-horse race between Mr Mwakwere and Mr Mwanyoha. Not any more, according to political analysts who have been monitoring the turn of events there. The candidates are bracing for a tight race.
The lessons from South Mugirango, where the big parties lost to Ford People, have energised Mr Tandaza and Labour Party of Kenya’s Masila as the four candidates and their teams work out what they consider winning strategies.
“There is a significant portion of voters who are dying to retain the flag in the constituency and cannot be swayed,” said Peter Ahenda, the coordinator of Kwale Human Rights Network.
Kwuyiza Bendera Yelhu (let’s return our flag) is the campaign slogan for the PNU side, in reference to the ministerial position that Mr Mwakwere held before he was ousted following an election petition.
Mr Mwanyoha, on the other hand, is capitalising on a statement attributed to Mr Mwakwere when he was the Transport minister that pedestrians who use the ferries would be required to pay for the services, which did not go down well with the constituents. Only motorists using the ferries pay.
A 2007 parliamentary candidate, Mr Nicholas Zani, said the scenario in Shimba Hills is different compared to 2007.
Respected a lot
“Those votes (in Shimba Hills) can go either way because Ngilu is also respected a lot because of water projects that have been initiated there through her ministry. And I would not be surprised if Tandaza failed to win in that particular area,” Mr Zani told the Sunday Nation.
“We expected Shimba Hills area to be a swing vote in the Mwakwere against Mwanyoha battle, but the entry of the two (Mr Tandaza and Mr Masila) has complicated things for PNU and ODM, and especially Mwakwere who had banked on Kalonzo Musyoka to deliver those votes to him,” said Mr Ahenda.
Mr Ahenda predicts that the by-election will be too close to call despite the fact that Mr Mwakwere, who lost the seat after a successful petition by a voter, Juma Mwakesi, had a head-start and started campaigns early.
Mr Mwakwere has a good footing in the race, thanks to his well-oiled campaign machinery and a network of village campaign committees. But the campaigns are intensifying with allegations from both PNU and ODM that there are plans to rig the elections.
Names misspelt
Last week, five ODM legislators from the Coast alleged that there were more than 13,000 voters whose names had been misspelt, listed under the wrong polling stations or missing from the voters’ register in Matuga.
They accused the Interim Independent Electoral Commission of deliberately creating the errors to disenfranchise voters.
The Mwakwere team also complained that more than 5,000 voters in his stronghold were wrongly registered.
“The ODM campaign committee in Matuga has unearthed well designed plans to rig the election,” Magarini MP and East African Community minister Amason Kingi said.
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